enCYCLONEpedia: Third annual, "C'mon, what are the odds?!?!?!"
It’s that time of year again - actually, a little bit later on the calendar than usual - where central Iowa’s favorite odds maker does as a solid and puts some odds and numbers to some random prop bets of my choosing. I am of course speaking of Ken Miller from 1460 KXnO who is gracious enough to help me out with this every year.
This is the third year that I’ve done this now with Ken. You can take a look at last year’s odds he did by clicking here. The actual outcomes were hit and miss. ISU didn’t cover the number for winning margin against UNI but did top the touchdown number against Iowa. The Cyclones beat his 30-1 odds by starting 3-0.
Iowa State couldn’t beat the 25-1 odds by beating Texas but did hold Oklahoma State under the 37 points (even including the overtimes). ISU fans really rose to the occasion to cover the over/under on number of games with 50,000 plus in attendance while the Cyclones on the field were able to cover the 2.5 conference wins and 3.5 overall wins. There are even more bets and odds from last year to check out if you so desire.
But now, on to 2012…here are the bets I submitted and the odd provided by Ken:
*** ISU will go 100% on PAT’s for the season: 20-1
- So simple, yet seemingly so far away. I don’t think I could bring myself to touch that one.
*** FG Accuracy % > Win %: 4-5
- A random one my wandering mind conjured up…I would go with it if the odds were more favorable because I think it will happen, even if the record is better than most have predicted.
*** Knott or Klein winning preseason linebacker award tied to a watch list: 15-1
- Both are up for the Nagurski Award, the Butkus Award, and the Bednarik Award. As much as I would love for this to happen it will be very difficult for it to actually happen.
*** Beating Oklahoma: 20-1
- If you figure in the recent (and not so recent) history for the Cyclones against Oklahoma this number doesn’t seem quite large enough. This history I detailed last fall for WideRightNattyLite.com prior to the Oklahoma game here.
*** Beating Iowa: 1-1, even money
- Honestly, that is pretty favorable especially when it is in Iowa City. I have ISU winning in Kinnick, so we will see.
*** Two ISU running backs rushing for 750 yards: 8-1
- I think the odds of this one are actually a bit longer than 8-1. Primarily because not only are there at least three backs that will split time but the quarterback will get his share of carries as well. It would be a great season on the ground for the Cyclones if this does happen.
*** ISU will score more points against WIU than Iowa & OU combined: 2-1
- As noted above from ISU’s troubles scoring against OU, take the point total against Iowa and add 10. That likely will not cover the point total against Western Illinois.
*** ISU will win more than three conference games: 10-1
- More on this later in the “over/under” section.
*** Total wins: 5.5
- For an unbiased observer this is a tough call. For a Kool-Aid drinking homer it is “take the over”.
*** Road wins: 2.5
- Even with the above scenario I think the under is the play here. Iowa State would have to find wins in Iowa City and Lawrence before even considering the trip to Austin, Stillwater, or Dallas.
*** Conference wins: 2.5
- In the bold predictions I did on my site I went on a weak limb and predicted five conference wins for Iowa State. Nevertheless, Paul Rhoads has won three conference games in each of his first three seasons as the head coach in Ames. I’ll take the over.
*** Number of ISU wins over ranked opponents: .5
- I’m on record stating there will be no “upset special” this season but I could still see a win over a ranked team. Perhaps Kansas State or West Virginia in the season finale in Ames.
*** ISU Kickoff Returns for TDs: 1.5
- Kind of a crazy number here but I think it means that Ken loves Jarvis West as much as me. Only one kickoff return for a TD since Troy Davis in 1994 and that was Jeremy Reeves on a Texas Tech onside kick gaffe in 2010.
*** ISU Successful onside kicks: 1.5 (rule change)
- Even without the onside kick rule change I think I’d have to go with the under here.
*** Home crowds of 52,500+: 5.5
- Tough to call…all six crowds topped 50,000 last year but throw in an extra 2,500? I’m going to take the over because I think it will be another promising year for the Cyclones and I think the balmy summer will carry late in to the fall to make for more comfortable viewing in Jack Trice Stadium.
*** The largest margin of victory in a conference game: 14.5
- The 34 point win in Lubbock is the only time this has happened since the blowout win over the Aggies in 2005. The next closest was the 14 point win over Tech in 2010.
*** Number of games ISU will score 30+ points: 3.5
- It happened in 2009, 2008, 2005, 2002, 2001, and others…I’m taking the over on this one though it may require some more overtime games to provide more scoring opportunities, like last year.
Now tell me, where has Ken lost his mind, where have a put my money in the wrong spot, and where would you be putting your money (Monopoly style money, of course).