By Steve Deace in a special to CycloneFanatic.comFollow Steve on Twitter @SteveDeaceShow
Each year when putting together my annual college football preview, I begin by evaluating the talent returning on each team first. I assign that talent a projected win range of two games, and teams with a quality upperclassman starting quarterback are given a bonus of +1 wins. Then I predict their record within that win range by factoring in the schedule.
How accurate have I been over the years? Over the past few years here’s how I have applied this model to Iowa State:
2008
I predicted Iowa State to finish 4-8. Iowa State finished 2-10.
2009
I predicted Iowa State to finish 6-6. Iowa State finished 6-6.
2010
I predicted Iowa State to finish 6-6. Iowa State finished 5-7.
2011
I predicted Iowa State to finish 3-9. Iowa State finished 6-6.
As you can see, with the exception of 2011 when Paul Rhoads and the Iowa State coaching staff overachieved despite facing one of the nation’s toughest schedules, this model is pretty accurate. As I’m beginning to put together my 2012 college football preview, I thought some of you might find it interesting to see how my model forecasts the Big 12 Conference finishing this fall.
Baylor Talent: 6-8 wins Factoring in the schedule: 7-5 (Quite possible Bears won’t win a single conference road game)
Iowa State Talent: 4-6 wins Factoring in the schedule: 6-6 (First half of the schedule sets up quite nicely for a fast start if Cyclones can win in Iowa City)
Kansas Talent: 2-4 wins Factoring in the schedule: 3-9 (Unless it beats Iowa State at home November 17th won’t win a game after September 8th)
*Kansas State Talent: 7-9 wins Factoring in the schedule: 7-5 (Won’t sneak up on teams this year, but returns quality upperclassman starting quarterback)
*Oklahoma Talent: 10-12 wins Factoring in the schedule: 11-1 (Gets a bonus for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback and will be favored in every game this season)
Oklahoma State Talent: 6-8 wins Factoring in the schedule: 6-6 (Tough year to upgrade the schedule with so many key losses on offense)
*TCU Talent: 8-10 wins Factoring in the schedule: 8-4 (Week-to-week upgrade in schedule difficulty offsets bonus for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback)
Texas Talent: 8-10 wins Factoring in the schedule: 10-2 (If quarterback situation was more developed, this would be a national championship type of schedule)
*Texas Tech Talent: 5-7 wins Factoring in the schedule: 6-6 (Will have to run the table in non-conference for bowl eligibility despite bonus for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback)
*West Virginia Talent: 8-10 wins Factoring in the schedule: 9-3 (Bonus for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback, and schedule isn’t too tough in new league)
* Means team received bonus win in my evaluation for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback
