Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
tazclone 
I never said anything about Arkansas. According to some sources, Notre Dame seriously considered the Big 10 during realignment. There are old alumni and young alumni and they are split. The older generation still thinks Notre Dame is ND of old while the younger boosters see the writing on the wall. As long as ND can continue to get their revenue, they will never join a conference but if they continue to be mediocre in football, their market will shrink and their value will diminish. The younger boosters see that and are serious about joining a conference. The only conference set up for ND to join and still keep some of their TV revenue is the Big 12. I am not saying it will happen. Just pointing out some factors that work in the Big 12's favor.
BYU is very similar in that they already have their own network. They are not going to give up their network and the expenses they had developing it to join a conference that won't allow them to keep their network. Just won't happen.
All your other teams bring very little to the table. Memphis is in Volunteer country and delivers on city and that is it. Cincinnatti is in Buckeye territory and may or may not deliver Cincinnatti. Both teams have had more recent success than ISU but their success was a flash in the pan in a very poor conference.
Air Force...are you kidding me? They most certainly do not deliver the Denver market. They have more of a tiny national following.
Teams are going to have to pay their way by bringing in markets. End of story. That is why Texas did not end up in the Pac 10/12. It didn't pay out. Larry Scott couldn't get the money he thought so Texas said NO.
Again, Larry Scott is in scramble mode.
I don't think it is even about the money anymore, Notre Dame could have more than doubled their revenue by joining the Big Ten last year.
As Notre Dame's TV Money Dwindles, So Too Should Its Independence
In 2008, NBC ponied up an extension to the Fighting Irish television contract. USA Today reported that the current contract paid Notre Dame in the neighborhood of $9 million per year. The new deal won't begin until 2010, but it's doubtful the rights fees increased very much, since Notre Dame's television ratings have been dwindling for several years.
So Notre Dame is making around $9 to $12 million a year, going to the Big Ten would have brought them over $20 million a year.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
hawkeyescott I don't think it is even about the money anymore, Notre Dame could have more than doubled their revenue by joining the Big Ten last year. As Notre Dame's TV Money Dwindles, So Too Should Its Independence In 2008, NBC ponied up an extension to the Fighting Irish television contract. USA Today reported that the current contract paid Notre Dame in the neighborhood of $9 million per year. The new deal won't begin until 2010, but it's doubtful the rights fees increased very much, since Notre Dame's television ratings have been dwindling for several years.
So Notre Dame is making around $9 to $12 million a year, going to the Big Ten would have brought them over $20 million a year.
Correct ND could have joined the BIG10 and made a **** ton more, but they are arrogant asshats who think they are still a national brand. ND to the BIG10 makes so much sense it blows my mind, yet they fail to see that. So they can still play UW & USC. Otherwise all there other rivalries are allready in the BIg10. **** ND, if it wasn't for them Nebby would still be crying in the Big 12. How did not voting for equal revenue sharing work out for you Nebby....... Oh wait you went to the conference that does that. **** Nebby forever.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
Creed I have heard stated on this website that ISU turned down the Big Ten out of loyalty to the Big 8. I don't know if that is true or not.
I think this is an urban legend. Not to say it wasn't true though. The only thing I've seen is that ISU was mentioned as a possible candidate before Michigan State joined in 1950.
Here is the link...
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Google News Archive Search
Re: At This Point It's All About Incremental Money
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Originally Posted by
isucy86 Keep me honest here, but based on the FOX deal this spring the Big 12's combined FOX/ESPN TV rights package is worth about $155M annually- roughly $15.5M per school. This figure could very well go up in about 4 years when the ESPN contract comes up for renewal- hopefully this will lift the TV rights value to at least $18M per school. The SEC and Big 10 TV deals are all currently north of those levels. I don't know where the Pac 10 sits.
That is going to be the threshold for any conference to expand, for new members to be considered they will need to add around $20M annually to the TV contract's value. Otherwise adding teams is dilutive to the existing members.
I guessing there are just a handful of schools that can have that impact. The obvious are Notre Dame and BYU.
The MSA's of current/former Big 12 north cities and some universities posters have mentioned:
Denver #21 2.5M
KC #29 2.0M
DSM #88 .57M
Cincy #27 2.1M
Vegas #30 1.9M
Memphis #41 1.3M
Louisville #42 1.3M
Albq #57 .9M
I just don't see that many opportunities for the Big 12 to expand other than BYU, UNLV and maybe a Colorado state. New Mexico has the potential- but their reputation is pretty sketchy.
IMO for the Big 10, SEC or Pac 10 to expand much more, its going to mean the demise of the Big 12 or Big East.
you have not included third tier rifts and from what I have seen you are grossly underestimating the first tier rights and their value. Second tier rights alone almost doubled and you think first tier will only garner an extra 3 million?
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
hawkfan This is 100% correct. The only difference is that Iowa lucked out and ended up in the Big 10 a century ago while ISU ended up in the Big 8.
Historically, Iowa was really helped out by the fact that it was closer to Chicago than ISU....had ISU of been closer, it would have likely been ISU in the Big Ten. Of course, ISU had an invite before the Big Ten extended an invite to MSU and ISU declined.
See, that's not luck - that's lack of foresight by a previous ISU administration. Of course, that decision was also made at a time when a school's academic reputation (under ordinary circumstances - I'm not including Ivy League-type schools in my blanket statement) didn't hinge upon performance on a football field. Had the NCAA landscape in the 1950s resembled the way it looks today, there is no way ISU would have remained loyal to the Big 8. Then again, under those same circumstances, ISU probably would have never been extended an invite, either.
Re: At This Point It's All About Incremental Money
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Originally Posted by
tazclone you have not included third tier rifts and from what I have seen you are grossly underestimating the first tier rights and their value. Second tier rights alone almost doubled and you think first tier will only garner an extra 3 million?
Almost doubled? 2nd tier rights went from $20M/year to $90M/year. I think that 1st tier rights will triple at the very least in 2015. Right now, they are at $60M. If I were negotiating, I would START at $200M and not go down anywhere below $150M.
Re: At This Point It's All About Incremental Money
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Originally Posted by
isucy86 I just don't see that many opportunities for the Big 12 to expand other than BYU, UNLV and maybe a Colorado state. New Mexico has the potential- but their reputation is pretty sketchy.
IMO for the Big 10, SEC or Pac 10 to expand much more, its going to mean the demise of the Big 12 or Big East.
The only one of those that's an "opportunity" to expand is BYU. The rest make it look like Iowa State has a huge following (not exactly a ringing endorsement).
The Big East and Big 12 are toast if the superconferences happen. The Big 10 and ACC are going to pick apart what they want from the Big East and the Pac 16 and SEC will take their pieces of the Big 12. I think the SEC takes aTm, Texas, OU, and OSU and the Pac 16 has to decide which 1 of Tech, Baylor, and Iowa State they want. Because of their strong desire to get into Texas I think we'd be in deep ****. Our other best chance would be that the ACC takes what the Big 10 would want and the Big 10 gives us a sympathy invite. That'd probably come down to the ACC swiping WVU, UConn, Pitt, and Louisville, leaving the Big 10 to pick from us, Syracuse, USF, Cincy, and Rutgers.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
If Texas ever joined a conference other than the Big 12, it would be the Pac 12. NWIH they ever join the SEC. Ever.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
The Big 12 won't add more teams, because if you can get the same amount of money and split it up 10 ways, why get the same amount of money and split it up 12-16 ways?
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
alarson 1. Beebe can only do what the schools let him do.
2. Even if the schools authorize seeking expansion, from the POV of the big 12, if youre facing potential turndowns, you do things quietly, behind the scenes. The official word, expanding or not, will be 'we're not seeking expansion' up until the day we invite another team. You dont say youre looking to expand and then either say nothing (implying that expansion efforts failed) or worse, face a public turndown from universities youre talking to.
You nailed that one right on the head!:yes:
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
For some reason I dont believe ISU is ever left out of a super conference if they were to form, the size of the school, being a land grant, the size of the student body, and the overall academics, not to mention the sports facilities would keep ISU in a power conference. Plus I am so confused, why do people think the Big East is just going to crumble? The ACC plucked a few schools from them but otherwise the conference has been strong and adding some of the Big 12 leftovers would just make it stronger. In the end I dont think we are talking about 4 16 team conferences but 5 conferences.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
UNIGuy4Cy For some reason I dont believe ISU is ever left out of a super conference if they were to form, the size of the school, being a land grant, the size of the student body, and the overall academics, not to mention the sports facilities would keep ISU in a power conference. Plus I am so confused, why do people think the Big East is just going to crumble? The ACC plucked a few schools from them but otherwise the conference has been strong and adding some of the Big 12 leftovers would just make it stronger. In the end I dont think we are talking about 4 16 team conferences but 5 conferences.
A lot of times I don't agree with you, but I think you're on to something here.
If you figure that BYU, ND, Army, Navy would be counted as teams in BCS conferences, and you drew the line and said only 64 teams can compete for the national championship, then you have 7 teams left out plus the others like Boise. At that point I think you'd see enough outcry that schools tax-exempt status would have to be seriously questioned and they'd question whether it was worth it.
I understand the whole reason people want 4 superconferences is that it maximizes $ and it essentially creates a playoff to determine a champion. 5 superconferences would make people upset, but then schools wouldn't be as upset.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
Quote:
Originally Posted by
UNIGuy4Cy For some reason I dont believe ISU is ever left out of a super conference if they were to form, the size of the school, being a land grant, the size of the student body, and the overall academics, not to mention the sports facilities would keep ISU in a power conference. Plus I am so confused, why do people think the Big East is just going to crumble? The ACC plucked a few schools from them but otherwise the conference has been strong and adding some of the Big 12 leftovers would just make it stronger. In the end I dont think we are talking about 4 16 team conferences but 5 conferences.
If any of the above mattered, I'd totally agree with you. However, all that matters is revenue. We don't offer a lot of that.
And if power conferences happen, the Big 10 isn't going to look at Miami of Ohio, they're going to be looking in the ACC or the Big East to capture those markets. The east coast is where people are concentrated most heavily. The ACC will be doing the exact same thing. The Big East football schools will be the first things wanted after Notre Dame. The Big East can't touch the money offered by the Big Ten and I'd venture a guess that it'd be the same story with the ACC.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
IcSyU If any of the above mattered, I'd totally agree with you. However, all that matters is revenue. We don't offer a lot of that.
And if power conferences happen, the Big 10 isn't going to look at Miami of Ohio, they're going to be looking in the ACC or the Big East to capture those markets. The east coast is where people are concentrated most heavily. The ACC will be doing the exact same thing. The Big East football schools will be the first things wanted after Notre Dame.
Who says the Big East teams go? Sorry but unlike teams in the Big 12 (Mizzou, Texas A&M, and OU), those teams have never thrown out any rumor of going elsewhere, but seem extremely content where their conference is going. Throw in Paul Tagliabue and you have strong leadership at the top. First thing he did was add a team that won Rose Bowl last season. Pretty solid to me, figure in adding the leftovers from the Big 12 sometime and you have the Big East and Big West, a rock solid basketball conference and a good football conference.
Re: Larry Scott says the Pac12 isn't done expanding
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Originally Posted by
UNIGuy4Cy Who says the Big East teams go? Sorry but unlike teams in the Big 12 (Mizzou, Texas A&M, and OU), those teams have never thrown out any rumor of going elsewhere, but seem extremely content where their conference is going. Throw in Paul Tagliabue and you have strong leadership at the top. First thing he did was add a team that won Rose Bowl last season. Pretty solid to me, figure in adding the leftovers from the Big 12 sometime and you have the Big East and Big West, a rock solid basketball conference and a good football conference.
Most of the schools in the Big East can only dream of getting a Big 10 or ACC invite. The reason you don't hear about them not wanting to jump ship is because they don't have anywhere to go. The Big 10 doesn't want to add them, but if the race to 16 begins, they're going to go after what either makes them money or loses the least money.
