I'm really torn on this. Personally, I like the 10 team league we have going on now. I don't think expansion adds stability in our current environment. Our new stability comes in the form of improved TV payouts that get us in line with the other leagues, the GOR, and equal revenue sharing. Expansion really doesn't add anything to this.
That said, if the opportunity arises to add programs like FSU, Clemson, or GT, you have got to look long and hard at that. From the angle of national prestige and program quality, adding those schools would be better than any move made by any conference so far (Utah and CU to the PAC, Nebby, Maryland, and Rutgers to the B1G, Mizzou and aTm to the SEC, and WVU TCU to the B12). The quality of the league on the field would be top notch, and we could fetch a nice CCG payday. We would also be setup well for the next round of Tier 1 and Tier 2 TV deals by adding more name programs and a larger population footprint. Opening up recruiting in the southeast would be good for the conference as well.
That said, I don't see the benefit of going beyond 16, unless we are planning to get to a conference TV network like the B1G. I think a move to 12 with FSU and Clemson and a shift back to 8 conference games per year would position the Big 12 well to get two teams into the playoffs each year and cash in on that. I think that getting 2 into the playoffs is going to be the big item for us to get paid assuming we don't switch our approach to a conference network.
To all those who think we are going to go to an 8 game conference schedule you are crazy. Networks don't pay schools money for playing UNI. They pay to see Texas play OU, or #5 KState play #20 TCU. As it stand we make $20 million a year, that is approx $4.444 million per conference game. If we go to a 12 team league with 8 conference games that will end up being 48 game conference schedule which is 3 games more than we play now (45=(9*10)/2). At $4.444 million per game that comes out to approx $213.333 million per year, which is about $17.777 million per school. Now obviously if we are to come to an agreement that we would play an SEC team every year that could make up for it (this is what the B1G was trying to do with the PAC 12). A CCG would help make up for some of the deficiet but why would you leave money on the table. A 9 game conference schedule is here to stay.
Three things matter 1) number of people watching 2) number of games played 3) Quality of games played. Right now as it stand the SEC wins 2 and 3 with a tie ror 1 with the B1G. In order for the B12 to compete we need to expand our footprint while also being concerned with the quality we are going to put on the field.
The B12 will never get the viewership of the B1G just because of geography, however, with an expanding south and south east we can position the league to take advantage of that and help get our teams extra revenue.
What would a network pay a conference if they had a 12 game conference schedule?
Think if the B12 would match the SEC with 14 teams, each team played one game a year from the other conference, that plus a 9 game conference schedule. Then you find one other BCS team and one mid-major, I would think that inventory would be worth a crap load.
They hold onto it because the media give them a pass and have crowned it the toughest conference no matter what. Ignoring the fact that the past two seasons Big 12 and Pac 12 schedules have been tougher than SEC schedules. They have it made, third toughest schedules while getting credit for being the #1 league.
*****9:00 am update North Carolina and Virginia: B10 targets?
Yeah I can confirm what Fravel is reporting. UVA BOT will meet today to possibly accept B10 offer. Might they sit at 15 or will they go 16?
The Dude of WV @theDudeofWV
I think I just may sit back and watch this happen.
And yeah, i take these two with an entire mine worth of salt, but interesting that someone else is getting in on this.
We need to get in get FSU, Clemson, and one of GT or NCST. That with Louisville should be good for us. Granted I would really like to get VT but I am almost certain they are SEC bound.
They are saying this is the 'we give so and so permission to guide us through this' discussion.