Stock Market

joepublic · 07-12-2007, 04:14 PM

How close are we to "irrational exuberance."
I've had that 1999-2000 day traders on the cover of Newsweek/Time feeling for a while now.

Cyclonepride · 07-12-2007, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by joepublic

How close are we to "irrational exuberance."
I've had that 1999-2000 day traders on the cover of Newsweek/Time feeling for a while now.

I don't agree with you on much, but I have had that feeling for a little while now. I'm really not convinced that inflation is as under control as the government would like us to believe.

brianhos · 07-12-2007, 04:42 PM

I am getting kinda nervous too. This 30% yearly return has got to end soon. Things are just going too good right now. A few of us were talking the other day about when it is time to move to bonds for a bit.

GM4ISU · 07-12-2007, 04:52 PM

it is all cause by the dollar value

wartknight · 07-12-2007, 04:56 PM

After today's big jump, I went and moved everything more conservative. Time will tell if it is a good move or not, but big jumps like today are a lot of times followed by decent losses. I'll probably wait for a big loss before I get back in. We'll find out in the next couple weeks if I'm an idiot or a genius. I just don't think this will keep up.

Incyte · 07-12-2007, 05:12 PM

Market timing is pretty difficult. Thankfully I'm in the market until about 2050 so I'm not going to think about it.

brianhos · 07-12-2007, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by Incyte

Market timing is pretty difficult. Thankfully I'm in the market until about 2050 so I'm not going to think about it.

Yeah, with my 401k, and roth ira's, I don't touch it. It stays in what it is in. But I have some money for fun set aside that I time and buy/sell more agressively. I would not suggest messing with a 401k or anything.

Balls · 07-12-2007, 05:23 PM

Not to argue, but with all of you thinking this way it doesn't appear there is "irrational exuberance".

With that said, I agree with you guys and I actually moved money to some more conservative funds just 2 days ago. But trying to time the market is a tough game to play and mostly results in a net loss. My changes were very limited in scope as most of my investments are 20+ year plans.

It could climb another 1, 2, or more years, or another 20%, 40% or more, and then drop only a portion of that gain. So leaving early could be as bad or worse then staying in and riding out any potential storm.

I for one don't see a free fall like we did in 2000-2002, that was just a perfect storm. But this is where my contrarian perspective again makes me nervous, as thinking it won't turn into a perfect storm only makes me second guess myself that it actually will. It's a never ending cycle.

jamesfnb · 07-12-2007, 05:34 PM

I moved all my investments from 90% Stocks/10% Bonds to 50/50. I won't bore you with the details but all 3 "signs" of a downturn in the stock market are now present. Plus, add the presidential election coming up (the stock market always moves sideways at best during election years) and it's time to get out of the stock market for awhile.

jparker22 · 07-12-2007, 05:56 PM

Before blathering on about what you did in your accounts you should lead with how old you are, what your risk tolerance is and what your investment objective is. Not singling any one person out but those that leave the market early will be padding the rest of the long term investors' accounts. So to those who are scarred I say get out now bring the prices down so that I can get more out of my accounts. 32 yrs old, high risk tolerance. (of course I think that inflation risk is a bigger risk than market risk which is why being an owner is better than being a loaner. ie. stocks vs bonds.)

ericlambi · 07-12-2007, 06:31 PM

Sorry to be a downer, but no one on this board has any skill at market timing, especially not on a horizon less than a year. The people moving their portfolio allocations back and forth because the market has run too long are just making their brokers richer by paying trading costs. My advice is to pick an allocation that suits your situation and stick with it.

On the irrational exuberance, we are not even close . . . the stock market P/E in the crash of Mar-2000 was far higher than it is now. The S&P has just now recovered its levels from 2000, but total corporate earnings are much (MUCH!) higher.

Whether or not the stock market is overvalued depends on your beliefs for forward looking world growth and corporate margins. Neither of these are no-brainer calls, and even the best "experts" are only going to be right 55-60% of the time.

PsychedClone · 07-12-2007, 08:06 PM

Originally Posted by joepublic

How close are we to "irrational exuberance."
I've had that 1999-2000 day traders on the cover of Newsweek/Time feeling for a while now.

Like everything else, it must be GW's fault!

dmclone · 07-12-2007, 09:54 PM

I've had a 401K since I was 18. It's very diversified and I've changed very little in the last 18 years and I couldn't be happier with it. I think I've had 1 year where it's actually went down and a lot of great years.

The one thing I do is once every 6 months I'll re-balance a little if a certain segment has skyrocketed.

I would have to be on the verge of death before I borrowed from my 401K. I've heard some funny(actually sad) conversations of why people borrow from their 401K.

83Clone · 07-12-2007, 09:59 PM

Originally Posted by wartknight

After today's big jump, I went and moved everything more conservative. Time will tell if it is a good move or not, but big jumps like today are a lot of times followed by decent losses. I'll probably wait for a big loss before I get back in. We'll find out in the next couple weeks if I'm an idiot or a genius. I just don't think this will keep up.

I wish you luck, but I live by the adage, it's not timing in the market, it's time in the market. There are people who were on the sidelines today doing just what you did-two weeks ago or 2 months ago, still waiting for the 5% correction.

erikbj · 07-12-2007, 10:26 PM

there is always a sector that is going up. i work in the industry and you can always find a fund or a money manager that is doing well. you just have to do some research.

two years ago i had most of my money in natural resources and had returns of 50% + and now i have spent the past 18 months investing in Latin America, East Europe, and SE Asia and have seen returns close to the 98 and 98 markets in the US.