NFL Fans - Help with Office Betting Pool

My office is having this contest where we put in $10 and every week you pick one team that is going to win its game that week. You cannot pick any team twice. Last one to avoid picking a loser wins. Last week I picked Seattle. This week I see that the Jaguars have the biggest spread, and given my lack of insight, I should probably pick them. But they also had one of the biggest spreads against the Titans and played like crap. So should I pick the Jags against the Falcons? My other consideration is Pitt against Buffalo. I dismissed Chicago vs KC because Rex Grossman is too volatile and could easily cause 5 turnovers. Just too risky. Any thoughts?

packers, our d is good this year and eli isnt playing for the giants

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Originally Posted by bigredqb7

packers, our d is good this year and eli isnt playing for the giants

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The packers? Tell me you are a comedian. :biglaugh:

Not a lot of good spreads this week. Seattle a 2.5 favorite at Arizona doesn't look bad, nor does the Saints being 3 point favorites at Tampa Bay. I would think New Orleans bounces back. Horrible week for the NFL. :(

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Originally Posted by Drive4cy

Not a lot of good spreads this week. Seattle a 2.5 favorite at Arizona doesn't look bad, nor does the Saints being 3 point favorites at Tampa Bay. I would think New Orleans bounces back. Horrible week for the NFL. :(

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I don't have to beat the spread . . . just pick a team that wins. I should be picking the biggest favorites, but need to be mindful of the rule that prevents me from picking the same team twice.

I think the Bengals are a lock to beat the Browns. The Browns looked terrible against Pittsburgh. Either that or Denver at home against the Raiders.

I would take either Chicago or the Jags. The Falcons and Chiefs are BADDDD. And i believe Chi and Jax are at Home.

Ohh, well there's no way in hell the Chiefs can beat Chicago. They could start JJ Bass and Todd Blythe and still win.

Steelers or Bengals -stay away from the Jags...

Steelers may be better than their Super Bowl year, when injuries caused them to lose 4 early games. They're healthy now and look REALLY dangerous... But nobody will notice for about a month while they're nusy salivating over the Bengals/Ravens/Pats...

In a knockout league you really need to be looking ahead at the NFL schedule to see the teams you may be picking in future weeks. If you make it to the end, you will end up choosing 16 teams or 50% of the league. So any opportunity you get to choose the "lesser" teams, by all means do so.

The Bears are a safe bet at home against KC. KC is bad and the Bears are very good at home. If you aren't very comfortable taking the Bears, now would be a good time against KC.

I think you would be safe taking the Jags or Pitt. I'd also look at taking Dever (home vs. Oakland) or Dallas (at Miami).

I love these types of office pools (currently undefeated). Go here first.

I then choose the three largest spreads for a home team. Early on (first three weeks) pick the easiest. Save the tough picks or more difficult picks (even marginal) for weeks 4-7. By then you should be close to winning and then play teams left over that have large at home spreads.

The key is choosing mostly at home teams. Usually worth 3.5 points in the NFL.

EDIT: I am picking the Bears or Broncos this week.

- keep.

I went with Pitt. They have a pretty tough sked moving forward . . . I could have used them next week against SF, but there are a couple other good choices next week. The pool only has 35 or so players, so I don't anticipate it going longer than 7 or 8 weeks.