It has been a busy week for me. I think this is the one with all the corrections. If I'm told otherwise I'll tell you guys when I have the correct one up. Here are Cygarin's comments:
Cygarin's College Sports Ratings
The Cygarin Ratings have been updated for this week. But at this time there is a correction that needs to be made. The power rating for Wisconson is wrong. It is too high by about 11 points on the "schedule" pages, which is pretty big big error. Cymaster is trying to get an update loaded up, but is having some technical difficulties again.
Three games into the season is still too early to consider the ratings as truly accurate, but it is interesting to see that they are indeed starting to be molded by the games played so far.
There are two things that I think are noteworthy. One is that Iowa State and Iowa didn't change much after this week's results. The reason for this is that the Sagarin ratings look for "fit", and the results of the game did not "fit" at all in relation to the four other games being evaluated. Thus Sagarin system sort of throws out the results. As the season goes on, how the Iowa/Iowa State game fits into the rest of the games will be evaluated will depend on how it fist with them. That is, if Iowa State wins at Toledo, and Iowa loses at Wisky, then you can expect to see some very significant changes.
The second thing that that I think is very noteworthy is how tight the bell curve is. This can easily be seen by how many "C" and "D" grade teams there are. In effect, the Sagarin is suggesting extreme parity in college football. However, expect this to spread out a little more as the season moves on.
Now for the fun and juicy stuff......
Talk about "mediocre"! Take a real good look at the Big 10! Seven teams are currently bunched up (and dominating) the "D" range. It makes the Big-12 North of a few years ago look like a power division.
This should be interesting for Iowa. The difference between a winning and losing season is turning into being the blink of an eye (or should I say a swing of a foot). Sagarin now as Iowa having less than a 50% chance of winning more than 7 games.
For what it's worth, according to other computer rankings, Sagarin as Wisconsin ranked quite a bit lower, and Iowa ranked quite a bit higher than the rest.
Regarding Iowa State and Toledo.....
Toledo is now considered to be the worst team we play this year, even with thier home field advantage factored in. Toledo is playing some pretty bad football so far this year. If the clones perform at the level of the first two games, this is a toss-up. On the other hand, if we play at the level of last week......