Get ready for some real nerdiness.
And if you want to skip all the geek talk, scroll down to the bottom for some potentially good news on Texas.
I've been keeping track of stats for the past 6 weeks of
ISU's offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as our opponents' stats to calculate a reasonable score prediction for each of our games.
The idea is based off a post I saw where YPP (Yards per Point) was a true indicator of the efficiency of an offense and defense. A low YPP average on offense, for example, indicates a powerful offense that can score at will, while a high YPP on offense reveals an inability to score points.
The exact opposite is true for the defense. A high YPP average yields a powerful defense, while a low YPP struggles to keep opponents off the field -- and out of the endzone.
So, to calculate scores, I've been averaging yards scored per game with yards allowed, and this is averaged with the YPP stat to determine the predicted score. Don't worry about this if you're confused... it makes sense in my Excel sheet.
Anyway, in comparing the calculated scores with the actual scores, one is able to graph a team's performance throughout the season. For example, the predicted score for Kent State vs.
ISU has
ISU losing 21-26. When compared to the actual 14-23 score,
ISU underperformed on offense, but did overperform on defense.
The trend for the next two games had
ISU on the upswing for the next two games, peaking at the Iowa game, where the calculated score has
ISU losing 16-23. While the offense still did slightly worse than the predicted score, the defense knocked 10 points off the predicted score.
Where the team appears to have hit a brick wall was the Toledo game. While the offense exceded their calculated performance by 8 points, the defense allowed 7 points more than they were actually supposed to. (Special teams errors!!)
The good news for those who were lazy and scrolled down: The team has been on an upward trend ever since the Toledo game. The calculated score for the Texas Tech was 40-20 bad guys, which closely resembles the actual score of 42-17. The calculated score for the Texas game is 30-20, and if the upward trend is to be believed, the actual score could end up being around 27-24 bad guys.
This close score puts things in a gray area where the game could swing either way. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 35-17 score like against Nebraska, but the possibility is there for a great upset Saturday.
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