Chances to Win the North

**AirWalke** · 10-16-2006, 10:58 AM

For the past few years I've done this, working through the North contender's schedules and how ISU could eventually win the North. (Both times, I've been scarily close!) We all know how it's ended for the past two years, but I thought it'd be fun to discuss how ISU could conceivably win the Big XII North.

Obviously, if two teams are tied, the winner of the game between those two will be the representative for the North, but here are the Big XII's rules should a 3-way tie occur:

http://www.big12sports.com/sports/m-...e-breaker.html

Now, the only chance ISU has is to win out the rest of its schedule, which they've been very good at for the past two years (save the last game). If such a situation should occur again, then just hope that third time's a charm. The only difference is that this year, we would not automatically win the North if we beat Missouri at home. They still have a game versus Kansas the next week, but it's obvious should the chips lay down in just the right way that this game could be very instrumental in choosing the winner of the North.

One way to win the North is for Missouri to lose one more game to a team besides us, and for Nebraska to have a complete meltdown versus the likes of Texas, OSU, Missouri, TAMu, and Colorado. Normally, I'd say that the only loss to come out of this remaining schedule would be Texas, but Missouri has proven to be a great team this year, and TAMu really stepped it up at Kyle Field. Considering that Nebraska has to visit the same stadium, that could very likely translate into a loss. If Missouri beats the Huskers in the previous week, this makes the loss even more plausible. This would leave OSU and/or Colorado to pull the upset, with Colorado being the more likely option.

Final Big XII North standings:
Iowa State 5-3
Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4

The three way tie gets a bit stickier. This situation will arise should everything that happens in the previous paragraph come to fruition, except that neither OSU or Colorado upset Nebraska. If this happens, all three teams will be tied at 5-3, and remain tied all the way down to number 6, where the best regular season record gets the go-ahead, sending Missouri to Kansas City.

The only way for ISU to win the three way tie at that point would be for Nebraska to beat TAMu or Texas, and lose to Colorado and Missouri. This would give ISU and Mizzou a 4-1 division record, but Nebraska would be stuck with a 3-2 division record. This eliminates the Huskers at step two, and ISU would win the tie breaker over Missouri for winning out.

I know this is all very unlikely, but it's still fun to speculate.

**cyclonedrew** · 10-16-2006, 11:10 AM

I clearly see us winning the north about as much as I see us playing in a BCS bowl game this year.

**ISUFan22** · 10-16-2006, 11:11 AM

Yes, someone posted something similar on the CN premium board.

And I like the optimism...I really do. I'm an optimistic guy.

However, lets get our first Big 12 win - and our first win on the season against a real opponent - before we even think about Big 12 North title chances.

**thunderdave** · 10-16-2006, 11:11 AM

Can we just start with winning 1 conference game?
Preferably this weekend.

**cycloneworld** · 10-16-2006, 11:31 AM

Realistically, our chances to win the North are slim to none. And slim just left town.

**Wesley** · 10-16-2006, 11:55 AM

None may be a permanent resident after this weekend.

It is easier for us to win five in a row than Nebraska and Missouri to blow up.

**clonerules** · 10-16-2006, 12:36 PM

its great to be optomistic but lets be realistic. we need to win our first game in the conference and then maybe a few more. at this point i would be thrilled with 7-5 and possibly houston again. maybe this week can be a turning point for the season.lets all just hope this is the case.

**ColoradoClone** · 10-16-2006, 12:51 PM

While I agree that winning out is not likely it is fun to look at the possibilities.

Nebraska losing to Mizzou, Texas, at ATM, and against CU doesn't look as crazy after CU's game against Tech. (and remember their game against KU)

Mizzou losing to OU and maybe KSU or KU isn't out of the possible realm either.

I believe the most unlikely scenario of the above would be ISU winning out, but I don't have to give up realism to accept it as a possibility.

**j4state** · 10-16-2006, 12:52 PM

No offense but you must be one of those people that picks us to go 11-1 in August and have a chance at a BCS bowl. I know it's fun to do but why set yourself up for disappointment?

**ISUFan22** · 10-16-2006, 12:55 PM

Ya know...if all that happened and we won the Big 12 North - what does that say about the North?

Crappy?

Yeah, I thought so.

**ColoradoClone** · 10-16-2006, 01:00 PM

The only way I think the North would get respect was if Nebraska won out. I'm not sure if I want the respect that bad ;-)

No, I didn't think they'd go 11-1 at the beginning of the season. Im as upset as anyone in the lack of fire in the players, and the regression of the offense. I think changes have to be made, but don't really feel like discussing them until the season is over.

As far as setting myself up for dissappointment, it's already there. I can still enjoy looking at the options, watching football, and supporting my team. I honestly don't see myself being less dissappointed if I quit on them as a fan.

**j4state** · 10-16-2006, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by ColoradoClone

The only way I think the North would get respect was if Nebraska won out. I'm not sure if I want the respect that bad ;-)

No, I didn't think they'd go 11-1 at the beginning of the season. Im as upset as anyone in the lack of fire in the players, and the regression of the offense. I think changes have to be made, but don't really feel like discussing them until the season is over.

As far as setting myself up for dissappointment, it's already there. I can still enjoy looking at the options, watching football, and supporting my team. I honestly don't see myself being less dissappointed if I quit on them as a fan.

Referring to the original post. Not yours, sorry.

**ISUFan22** · 10-16-2006, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by ColoradoClone

The only way I think the North would get respect was if Nebraska won out. I'm not sure if I want the respect that bad ;-)

I'd much rather see Mizzu win out than the Huskers. Of course, that puts them beating us, so they do need one more loss.

I think Mizzu can play with Texax and Oklahoma. Had they not shot themselves in the foot - they would have defeated A&M by 10.

**ColoradoClone** · 10-16-2006, 01:13 PM

Agreed, I'd much rather see Mizzou with the North title.

**AirWalke** · 10-16-2006, 01:17 PM

Originally Posted by joskvig

No offense but you must be one of those people that picks us to go 11-1 in August and have a chance at a BCS bowl. I know it's fun to do but why set yourself up for disappointment?

Actually, I thought we'd go 9-3 with losses to Iowa, OU, and Texas. Realistically, I think we'll finish 7-5 with a loss to Missouri at the end of the year. I'm not saying "this is how it's gonna happen", I'm just examining the possibilities, and what the team has to do and what has to happen in order for us to have a chance.

Overall, I've been devoid of excitement for Cyclone football since the Toledo game, when our offense was the strongest it had been all year. Might as well have lost the past 5 games, IMO, and I still would feel as pessimistic.

My post was just an examination of what has to happen to achieve the team's preseason goals.