My Thoughts on the Smith Situation

**SplitIdentity** · 04-20-2007, 05:48 PM

As an Iowa fan, I thought I'd throw out my thoughts about next season.

Really, I think Iowa will win about 8 or 9 games in the BigTen. This, of course, is a bit of a homer pick, but let me explain why. Let's say that the Hawks have 2 games against NU, Minnesota, PSU, UM, and Purdue. Purdue once again is going to be thin, plus they rarely win on the road. That's one win. Michigan - they are going to be extremely thin, and in the same spot Iowa is in. There's another win. Northwestern, Minnesota, and PSU could each give Iowa 2 wins, or 1 win each - who knows.

There's a probably 6 wins with those teams. As thin as the Hawks are going to be, they'll more than likely pick up a couple of wins against teams they aren't supposed to - IU, Illinois, UW, OSU, or MSU. Let's say they win two of those (at home of course) and win the games they are supposed to (remember, this is at least one win from the BigTen "bottom feeders"), and that's 8 wins.

Of course, it won't work out this way. Iowa will probably lose a couple of games that they aren't "supposed to", and lose more of those than win games that they aren't "supposed" to. So, I see 6 wins as a strong possibility as well.

But with 18 conference games, 8-9 wins isn't much, and a .500 record in the BigTen with all of the coaching changes plus Northwestern and PSU is completely reasonable.

Not to mention, with a couple of surprise players - which I'm going to go out on a limb and say Jeff Peterson and David Palmer will be surprise players - who knows. Iowa will in no way be a "good" team next year, but I will equate them with ISU. Undermanned but fundamentally improved. This Iowa team probably won't underacheive, but will probably not do much better than expectations.

It's amazing and sad at the same time, that Iowa's season in terms of mediocre and poor depended on one player. I'll just say this, thanks Alford.

Bash away, just saying this from a Hawk fan point of view.

**jay moe** · 04-20-2007, 05:54 PM

Sorry, you are going to get no sympathy here. Personally, I hope you lose every big ten game.

**arganbright2** · 04-20-2007, 05:54 PM

Purdue put together a top 15 recruiting class, so I don't know that they will be too thin. Other than that, Iowa isn't going to have anybody other than Freeman and Tate. I think they will be one of the bottom 3 teams in the conference and 8-9 wins would make Lickliter coach of the year in Big 11

**Bobber** · 04-20-2007, 05:54 PM

I think the ISU comparison is a good one. At least we had Clark and Jiri coming back. Gosh the only horsepower you appear to have back is Freeman and that isn't saying much...

.500 is a stretch. We'll have to see how cushy a nonconference schedule you guys have.

This looks to be the first time in a while that ISU should be heavily favored going into the big game.

**cytech** · 04-20-2007, 05:55 PM

imho it is just way to early to tell.
It will all depend on how well new players to the hawks do, and if the big ten is down again this year.

At this point in time I would say if the hawks managed to get to .500 in the big ten, that would be quite impressive.

If I had to take a stab at it now I would say somewhere between 5-13 and 7-11. Which is just a uninformed guess just like anyone else's would be.

**SplitIdentity** · 04-20-2007, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by arganbright2

Purdue put together a top 15 recruiting class, so I don't know that they will be too thin. Other than that, Iowa isn't going to have anybody other than Freeman and Tate. I think they will be one of the bottom 3 teams in the conference and 8-9 wins would make Lickliter coach of the year in Big 11

I dunno. Minnesota will be rebuilding - returning players or not, those players did pretty badly last year. Also, PSU, NU, and probably UM with their lack of returning players will make it easier for Iowa to finish better.

I agree with Purdue, but I still don't see them winning on the road. Talented incoming players or not, they lost a lot of starters.

Remember, Iowa was picked to finish 9th last year - and that was pre-Smith. There could be more break out players for the Hawks next year. I dunno, nobody knows. I guess, as a fan, I'd just rather hope that Iowa's season next year has to do more with good coaching than it does with the lack of a single player.

**hemiclone** · 04-20-2007, 06:01 PM

Are you on crack? No way Iowa wins more than 4 games in the Little 11.

**Cyclone62** · 04-20-2007, 06:02 PM

I agree that the ISU comparison is a fair one, but I think that the Hawks won't do any better than ISU did this season. I see Lickliter doing big things for Iowa, but not next season. For me, I'm just going to watch and see if Lickliter can coach all his players to improve throughout the season like GMac did in his first season.

**Cyclone62** · 04-20-2007, 06:05 PM

And, in the spirit of being civil, I apologize Aaron for the arrogance of a couple that have posted thus far in this thread. I won't name names, but one of their initials is hemiclone.

**Michael Lastuvka** · 04-20-2007, 06:20 PM

Aww come on guys, Seth Gorney's supposed to be the next great thing

**ISUFan22** · 04-20-2007, 06:21 PM

IMO, thinking Iowa will be near .500 in the Big 10 in '07/'08 is about as big of a homer pick as they come. It would've been like me thinking ISU was going to go .500 in the Big 12 this past year.

I firmly believe Iowa would've struggled to get to .500 with Smith. Now that he's not there, it's just way to far fetched. They'd need to strike gold with a couple of these recruits and a few current players would need out-of-body experiences on the court.

No flame, it's just they way it is. I think Lickliter is a great fit for Iowa. He just won't be winning much in year one.

PS. I too think we could be a bit more civil to other posters - even the outsiders. As long as they're not flaming and behaving like trolls, I can't see why anyone else should be.

**thakeepa14** · 04-20-2007, 06:47 PM

I'm also not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but based on who iowa will be sending out on the court, odds are they're looking closer at 8-9 wins total than 8-9 conf wins. Your pick isn't a homer pick, it's borderline insanity. The PSU and NU bottomfeeders will get one more team's company next year. Minnesota is good for more wins and Iowa won't touch them with Tubby coaching. If hawk fans continue to think like this, which they will inevitably will do, I almost feel bad for Lickliter.

**Cyclone62** · 04-20-2007, 06:55 PM

In all honesty, I think Aaron saw what GMac did here in his first year, and taking it up one more notch for homerism, as he said in the original post. However, I'd rather more of our own fans have those kind of high standards than the "we'll only win 5 games XXXX season" that many 'Clones have.

**SplitIdentity** · 04-20-2007, 07:00 PM

Originally Posted by Cyclone62

In all honesty, I think Aaron saw what GMac did here in his first year, and taking it up one more notch for homerism, as he said in the original post. However, I'd rather more of our own fans have those kind of high standards than the "we'll only win 5 games XXXX season" that many 'Clones have.

Exactly. I woulndn't be surprised to see 9 total wins, but I'm not going to predict that. I really don't think it's insane to predict a non-losing season. I'm not predicting post-season, just not a bunch of losses.

**jtd9046** · 04-20-2007, 07:39 PM

Originally Posted by Cyclone62

And, in the spirit of being civil, I apologize Aaron for the arrogance of a couple that have posted thus far in this thread. I won't name names, but one of their initials is hemiclone.

While I agree there is arrogance on this board, do we honestly need other posters apologizing for the actions of others? The mods do a great of keeping the board civil and I don't think it's neither appropriate or needed for posts to single out an individual on this site.