Iowa State vs. Iowa Super Sim

**geburgess** · 09-09-2010, 01:44 AM

So earlier there was a thread of someone who did a single simulation of ISU-Iowa on NCAA 11. I got bored tonight so I took it a step further and did a statistical simulation study of 30 separate games, broke down the stats for scores and important players. So heeeeere we gooooo

Overall
Record: (26.67 win percentage), 3 - 1 in OT games

Averages
Score: Iowa 27.1667, ISU 19.7667 (7.4 PPG difference)
Austen Arnaud: 17.7333-33.2333 attempts-completions/game (53.36 completion percentage), 238.367 YPG, 1.8 TD/game, .6 INT/game
Alexander Robinson: 13.6333 carries/game, 62.2 YPG (4.56236 YPC), .433333 TD/game, .4 Fumbles/game
Ricky Stanzi: 18-31.4 attempts-completions/game (57.3248 completion percentage), 254.467 YPG, 1.76667 TD/game, .466667 INT/game
Adam Robinson: 25.3333 carries/game, 117.033 YPG (4.61974 YPC), 1.1 TD/game, .16667 Fumbles/game

A major thing that pops out to me is the lack of carries that A-Rob gets for us, which is part of being labeled as a "Spread" offense in NCAA '11, so Arnaud throws more than usual. However, the YPC averages are similar for both backs, which bodes well against Iowa's arguably better defensive unit.

Also, with only a 7.4 PPG difference in this simulation, the 14.5 point spread against us seems a bit much. It definitely falls within the 7-10 point underdog I figured we would be going into this game.

Just figured there would be a few people on here who would like to see something like this, hope you enjoy.

**AlleyAddict** · 09-09-2010, 01:47 AM

I appreciate the effort, but I don't put much stock in video game simulations, nothing against you, but I hope our A-Rob rushes more than 14 times Saturday.

**geburgess** · 09-09-2010, 01:48 AM

Originally Posted by AlleyAddict

I appreciate the effort, but I don't put much stock in video game simulations, nothing against you, but I hope our A-Rob rushes more than 14 times Saturday.

No joke, that's what I was surprised about. Like I said though, probably because we're listed as a pure spread offense than a spread option offense so Arnaud's stats are probably inflated and A-Rob's are probably low.

**CtownCyclone** · 09-09-2010, 07:57 AM

A-Rob fumbles as many times as he scores a TD?

**AmesHawk** · 09-09-2010, 08:01 AM

Originally Posted by CtownCyclone

A-Rob fumbles as many times as he scores a TD?

He did last year

I kid, I kid!

**CloneFan4** · 09-09-2010, 08:09 AM

Do you have a 360 or ps3? If you have a 360 with live I would love to play ya in a ranked match.

**Secretcyfan** · 09-09-2010, 08:13 AM

I was at the first Iowa/ISU and at the first game which was a Freshman Game. Stats mean nothing in this game. It is all about the team with the biggest heart

**Wesley** · 09-09-2010, 08:33 AM

Originally Posted by geburgess

So earlier there was a thread of someone who did a single simulation of ISU-Iowa on NCAA 11. I got bored tonight so I took it a step further and did a statistical simulation study of 30 separate games, broke down the stats for scores and important players. So heeeeere we gooooo

Overall
Record: (26.67 win percentage), 3 - 1 in OT games

Averages
Score: Iowa 27.1667, ISU 19.7667 (7.4 PPG difference)
Austen Arnaud: 17.7333-33.2333 attempts-completions/game (53.36 completion percentage), 238.367 YPG, 1.8 TD/game, .6 INT/game
Alexander Robinson: 13.6333 carries/game, 62.2 YPG (4.56236 YPC), .433333 TD/game, .4 Fumbles/game
Ricky Stanzi: 18-31.4 attempts-completions/game (57.3248 completion percentage), 254.467 YPG, 1.76667 TD/game, .466667 INT/game
Adam Robinson: 25.3333 carries/game, 117.033 YPG (4.61974 YPC), 1.1 TD/game, .16667 Fumbles/game

A major thing that pops out to me is the lack of carries that A-Rob gets for us, which is part of being labeled as a "Spread" offense in NCAA '11, so Arnaud throws more than usual. However, the YPC averages are similar for both backs, which bodes well against Iowa's arguably better defensive unit.

Also, with only a 7.4 PPG difference in this simulation, the 14.5 point spread against us seems a bit much. It definitely falls within the 7-10 point underdog I figured we would be going into this game.

Just figured there would be a few people on here who would like to see something like this, hope you enjoy.

If I was ISU, I would stop the run and let Softball Stanzi puit the ball in the air in hopes of something bad happening.

So far AA's QB coach and CPR say that he is greatly improved. We will see on Saturday.

**DRCHIRO** · 09-09-2010, 08:49 AM

Originally Posted by geburgess

So earlier there was a thread of someone who did a single simulation of ISU-Iowa on NCAA 11. I got bored tonight so I took it a step further and did a statistical simulation study of 30 separate games, broke down the stats for scores and important players. So heeeeere we gooooo

Overall
Record: (26.67 win percentage), 3 - 1 in OT games

Averages
Score: Iowa 27.1667, ISU 19.7667 (7.4 PPG difference)
Austen Arnaud: 17.7333-33.2333 attempts-completions/game (53.36 completion percentage), 238.367 YPG, 1.8 TD/game, .6 INT/game
Alexander Robinson: 13.6333 carries/game, 62.2 YPG (4.56236 YPC), .433333 TD/game, .4 Fumbles/game
Ricky Stanzi: 18-31.4 attempts-completions/game (57.3248 completion percentage), 254.467 YPG, 1.76667 TD/game, .466667 INT/game
Adam Robinson: 25.3333 carries/game, 117.033 YPG (4.61974 YPC), 1.1 TD/game, .16667 Fumbles/game

A major thing that pops out to me is the lack of carries that A-Rob gets for us, which is part of being labeled as a "Spread" offense in NCAA '11, so Arnaud throws more than usual. However, the YPC averages are similar for both backs, which bodes well against Iowa's arguably better defensive unit.

Also, with only a 7.4 PPG difference in this simulation, the 14.5 point spread against us seems a bit much. It definitely falls within the 7-10 point underdog I figured we would be going into this game.

Just figured there would be a few people on here who would like to see something like this, hope you enjoy.

I wish I was still in college.

**VeloClone** · 09-09-2010, 08:53 AM

Originally Posted by Secretcyfan

I was at the first Iowa/ISU and at the first game which was a Freshman Game. Stats mean nothing in this game. It is all about the team with the biggest heart

Wow! You must hold the record for the oldest Iowan as the first game was October 1, 1894!

**geburgess** · 09-09-2010, 10:30 AM

Originally Posted by Wesley

If I was ISU, I would stop the run and let Softball Stanzi puit the ball in the air in hopes of something bad happening.

So far AA's QB coach and CPR say that he is greatly improved. We will see on Saturday.

That's the exact defensive strategy I would take as well. Let the Manzi pass because we know we have a better secondary unit than front 7 on most days. I hope AA's improved, but he really has no where to go but up compared to last year's game... In the sim he never threw 4 INTs in a game...

Originally Posted by DRCHIRO

I wish I was still in college.

Yeah, it's still pretty awesome. Would rather have been out last night but sickness and unwillingness to spend money with Iowa City this weekend and Kansas City next weekend played a factor.