Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

**psychlone99** · 05-25-2011, 09:02 PM

This is a write-up by a buddy of mine who's an ISU statistics grad and statistician by trade. Enjoy.

Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus « McIllece Sports

**Wesley** · 05-25-2011, 09:32 PM

Looks like two wins.

**psychlone99** · 05-26-2011, 12:12 PM

Originally Posted by Wesley

Looks like two wins.

So is that your prediction based on his analysis? It wasn't necessarily a rosy picture, but it wasn't all gloom and doom either.

**sdillon500** · 05-26-2011, 12:26 PM

Nice, thanks for sharing. While I'm more optimistic about the 2011 season than this writer, I appreciate it when people back up their predictions with stats. It's frustrating to see SI or ESPN come out with a 3-9 or 4-8 prediction for ISU every year, and not really justify the prediction.

**Al_4_State** · 05-26-2011, 12:34 PM

That's a fair write up. I'm more optimistic (not a lot) but he's definitely done his homework and put a lot of thought in.

**sdillon500** · 05-26-2011, 12:39 PM

Also loved the predictable "CLOWNS SUCK!" in all-caps in the comments. I think there's one semi-literate guy out there who had someone set up an "Iowa State" google alert for him, and he just goes around trolling different websites.

**Aclone** · 05-26-2011, 01:44 PM

Does your friend write for Athlon?

**jjmcillece** · 05-28-2011, 04:00 PM

Originally Posted by Aclone

Does your friend write for Athlon?

I don't know if this is a serious question or not, but no, I do not write for Athlon. I did interview in Bristol and considered a job with a new analysis team ESPN created last winter. I wrote this ISU preview mostly for my good friend psychlone99, who appreciates statistically-based perspectives of college football.

Hope most of you enjoyed the read.

**jjmcillece** · 05-28-2011, 04:10 PM

Originally Posted by sdillon500

Also loved the predictable "CLOWNS SUCK!" in all-caps in the comments. I think there's one semi-literate guy out there who had someone set up an "Iowa State" google alert for him, and he just goes around trolling different websites.

I didn't care for that comment. Pointless.

**dualthreat** · 05-28-2011, 04:50 PM

that looked like a really good assessment. Give rhoads 1 upset and we'll be 5-7 ...

**risiusj** · 05-28-2011, 05:52 PM

This guy's a cockeyed optimist - 6% chance of winning in Norman.

**Cyclonepride** · 05-28-2011, 06:52 PM

Nice job. While I loved the players that have graduated and moved on, it was the 111th ranked offense, so maybe it's not so hard to replace as we may think. I think we win anywhere from 5 to 7 games.

**Aclone** · 05-30-2011, 10:09 AM

Originally Posted by jjmcillece

I don't know if this is a serious question or not, but no, I do not write for Athlon. I did interview in Bristol and considered a job with a new analysis team ESPN created last winter. I wrote this ISU preview mostly for my good friend psychlone99, who appreciates statistically-based perspectives of college football.

Hope most of you enjoyed the read.

In that case, what were/would have been your odds last May of ISU winning in Austin the ensuing Fall?

**CyValley** · 05-30-2011, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by jjmcillece

. . . Hope most of you enjoyed the read.

Wanted to thank you for your serious, no-nonsense approach to the analysis.

What gives we Cyclones fans hope, and keeps us returning season after season, are the intangibles. IMHO, the most important intangible we have is CPR. He brings something important to program-building (we hope!).

**clonefever05** · 05-30-2011, 11:22 AM

Thank you for sharing. I thought it was an interesting, objective view of ISU's chances of winning based on our "past" performances. The reason I hold out greater hope is because of the intangibles that new talent used in a new ways can bring to a program; good coaches turn those intangibles into wins. That's how teams like Cincinnati crawled from obscurity to a top 5 team in just a couple years under Brian Kelly.

I'm not a Cinci or Brian Kelly fan but if you'd have statistically evaluated Cincinnati over those years (06 - 09) they would have predicted a slightly better or slightly worse team that the previous year in each of those seasons. With new talent and better schemes, they exceeded their past performances. In my opinion, there are too many unpredictable variables in college sports to only rely on the past.

Thanks again for the thoughts. It was a very interest, objective way of looking at it. I'm just hoping for more like most on here.