Will Iowa State Win A National Championship?

[M3MEPLEASE]

If ISU goes 12-0 in the Big 12, there isn't a single 1 loss team that would jump it.
.

I don't buy that.

Say you had this scenario

13-0 Big 10 champ Ohio State
13-1 SEC champ Alabama with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Florida team
13-1 PAC 12 champ USC with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Oregon
12-0BIG 12 champ ISU with wins over unranked Texas and highly ranked OU, but weak OOC

There are a ton of possible scenarios with sos coming into play, but if you really think ISU would automatically be in the NC in the above scenario? You have a lot of confidence in the BCS then, because I think the big name school would be taken over them in many similar spots like this.

[Al_4_State]

I don't buy that.

Say you had this scenario

13-0 Big 10 champ Ohio State
13-1 SEC champ Alabama with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Florida team
13-1 PAC 12 champ USC with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Oregon
11-1 BIG 12 champ ISU with wins over unranked Texas and highly ranked OU, but weak OOC

There are a ton of possible scenarios with sos coming into play, but if you really think ISU would automatically be in the NC in the above scenario? You have a lot of confidence in the BCS then, because I think the big name school would be taken over them in many similar spots like this.

No. But that's not the scenario you described earlier. You said an undefeated ISU. Not a one loss ISU.

An undefeated ISU is in, in that scenario.

[M3MEPLEASE]

Remember that in 2007, a Big East team was set to play for the NC if they finished with 1 loss against an undefeated Big 12 team (Mizzou), but that Big East team ended up with 2 losses, and that Big 12 team ended up w/a CCG loss. If a 1 loss Big East team can be ahead of a 1 loss Big 10 team and 2 loss SEC team, an undefeated Big 12 team would be the top of the heap.

That's my point though, it would take a really fluke type year like 2007 where a 2 loss team won the NC game combined with ISU going 12-0 for them to even have a chance. The odds of that are so remotely rare.

Also, Missouri lost to OU early in the season before losing to them in the CCG. It may have been the Big East, but it was WV who had gone 11-1 with a Sugar Bowl win and 11-2 with a Gator Bowl win the previous two years. Had it been any other school not named Pitt or WV from the Big East, they would never even been considered for the NC game with 1 loss over OSU. Iowa State wouldn't be in the same position.

[weR138]

I don't buy that.

Say you had this scenario

13-0 Big 10 champ Ohio State
13-1 SEC champ Alabama with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Florida team
13-1 PAC 12 champ USC with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Oregon
11-1 BIG 12 champ ISU with wins over unranked Texas and highly ranked OU, but weak OOC

There are a ton of possible scenarios with sos coming into play, but if you really think ISU would automatically be in the NC in the above scenario? You have a lot of confidence in the BCS then, because I think the big name school would be taken over them in many similar spots like this.

I don't think we have to worry about a weak OCC. I'm all for it though.

[M3MEPLEASE]

No. But that's not the scenario you described earlier. You said an undefeated ISU. Not a one loss ISU.

An undefeated ISU is in, in that scenario.

Oops, I meant it to say 12-0 ISU BIG 12 champs, not 11-1. And no, they I'm pretty sure Alabama or USC would be taken over them even if Iowa State was 12-0 in that spot. The system will almost ALWAYS favor the big name school.

[CarolinaCy]

I don't buy that.

Say you had this scenario

13-0 Big 10 champ Ohio State
13-1 SEC champ Alabama with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Florida team
13-1 PAC 12 champ USC with earlier close loss in season to a ranked Oregon
12-0BIG 12 champ ISU with wins over unranked Texas and highly ranked OU, but weak OOC

There are a ton of possible scenarios with sos coming into play, but if you really think ISU would automatically be in the NC in the above scenario? You have a lot of confidence in the BCS then, because I think the big name school would be taken over them in many similar spots like this.

How often is UT going to be unranked though? Not very.

For anyone who thinks it's a given that a 12-0 ISU gets left out of the NCG, I present to you exhibit A: the 2002 Iowa State Cyclones. A 6-1 start got us into the top 10 in the rankings, despite only beating 3 decent teams at the time (Iowa, Neb, Tech).

If ISU had gone undefeated in 2002, there is no way they wouldn't have played for it all. Heck, we still might have played for all the marbles with that loss to FSU, since it was the first game of the year. We still would have had wins over an Iowa team that finished 11-1, #2 OU, #7 UT and #12 KSU (all on the road BTW).

Having said all of that, this is the silliest discussion in the history of ISU athletics. I can pretty confidently say that the chances of ISU winning a NC in football are somewhere in the neighborhood of 0%.

[Al_4_State]

Oops, I meant it to say 12-0 ISU BIG 12 champs, not 11-1. And no, they I'm pretty sure Alabama or USC would be taken over them even if Iowa State was 12-0 in that spot. The system will almost ALWAYS favor the big name school.

An undefeated BCS school has never finished below a 1 loss BCS team. Ever. Why do you think that would change?

Only twice have undefeated BCS schools been left out of the NC: '04 Auburn and '09 Cincy, and in both of those cases, there were two other undefeated BCS schools who clearly had better strength of schedule.

The situation that you believe would happen has never happened. I don't know why you think it would.

[jdoggivjc]

How often is UT going to be unranked though? Not very.

For anyone who thinks it's a given that a 12-0 ISU gets left out of the NCG, I present to you exhibit A: the 2002 Iowa State Cyclones. A 6-1 start got us into the top 10 in the rankings, despite only beating 3 decent teams at the time (Iowa, Neb, Tech).

If ISU had gone undefeated in 2002, there is no way they wouldn't have played for it all. Heck, we still might have played for all the marbles with that loss to FSU, since it was the first game of the year. We still would have had wins over an Iowa team that finished 11-1, #2 OU, #7 UT and #12 KSU (all on the road BTW).

Having said all of that, this is the silliest discussion in the history of ISU athletics. I can pretty confidently say that the chances of ISU winning a NC in football are somewhere in the neighborhood of 0%.

Actually, I can make a very compelling argument as to why ISU wouldn't have played for the BCS championship, even had they gone 13-0 or 12-1 that year:

1. Miami (12-0)
2. Ohio St (13-0)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. USC (10-2)
5. Iowa (11-1)
6. Washington St (10-2)
7. Oklahoma (11-2)
8. Kansas St (10-2)
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
10. Texas (10-2)

Granted, had we gone 13-0 we would have beaten the #5, #7, #8, #10, #13 (Colorado), and #14 (Florida St) teams, which would have been mighty impressive. But you're talking about a team that didn't even receive any AP votes to start the year, and with a 7-1 record had only worked its way up to #9. I just don't think there's any way we would have jumped Miami or Ohio St, and quite possibly not even Georgia.

The way I see it, if ISU is ever going to get a BCS title shot, they are going to have to have some preseason visibility - they will have to start in the top 25 in both the AP and coaches polls, and then have a magical season on top of that.

[CarolinaCy]

Actually, I can make a very compelling argument as to why ISU wouldn't have played for the BCS championship, even had they gone 13-0 or 12-1 that year:

1. Miami (12-0)
2. Ohio St (13-0)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. USC (10-2)
5. Iowa (11-1)
6. Washington St (10-2)
7. Oklahoma (11-2)
8. Kansas St (10-2)
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
10. Texas (10-2)

Granted, had we gone 13-0 we would have beaten the #5, #7, #8, #10, #13 (Colorado), and #14 (Florida St) teams, which would have been mighty impressive. But you're talking about a team that didn't even receive any AP votes to start the year, and with a 7-1 record had only worked its way up to #9. I just don't think there's any way we would have jumped Miami or Ohio St, and quite possibly not even Georgia.

The way I see it, if ISU is ever going to get a BCS title shot, they are going to have to have some preseason visibility - they will have to start in the top 25 in both the AP and coaches polls, and then have a magical season on top of that.

Actually, we started 6-1, getting us to #9. And we hadn't yet played OU, UT, KSU, or CU. We went from zero votes to #9 by LOSING to FSU, and beating Iowa, Nebraska, and Tech. Pretty unimpressive, yet we rocketed to #9.

You don't think beating OU (#2), UT (#7), KSU (#12), and CU - all on the road - would have jumped us from #9 to #2? Not to mention beating OU again in the Big XII title game.

[jdoggivjc]

Actually, we started 6-1, getting us to #9. And we hadn't yet played OU, UT, KSU, or CU. We went from zero votes to #9 by LOSING to FSU, and beating Iowa, Nebraska, and Tech. Pretty unimpressive, yet we rocketed to #9.

You don't think beating OU (#2), UT (#7), KSU (#12), and CU - all on the road - would have jumped us from #9 to #2? Not to mention beating OU again in the Big XII title game.

No, actually, I don't - perhaps we would have jumped to #3 or #4, but not #2. The media and the BCS were salivating at the OSU-Miami matchup (guaranteed ratings and lots of $$$) and they wouldn't let a little "start-up" like ISU interfere with that, even if ISU was sitting at 14-0 with all of those impressive victories.

[IcSyU]

Short answer: No.

I put Iowa State's national championship in football odds at the same odds I win the lottery.

[CarolinaCy]

No, actually, I don't - perhaps we would have jumped to #3 or #4, but not #2. The media and the BCS were salivating at the OSU-Miami matchup (guaranteed ratings and lots of $$$) and they wouldn't let a little "start-up" like ISU interfere with that, even if ISU was sitting at 14-0 with all of those impressive victories.

Oh, I think our computer rankings would have probably been high enough (#1 maybe?) to trump any of that crap going on in the human polls or in the national media.

It was only 1 year before that, that everyone and their dog said Nebraska had no business being in the NCG, yet there they were. Why? Computer rankings.

[jdoggivjc]

Oh, I think our computer rankings would have probably been high enough (#1 maybe?) to trump any of that crap going on in the human polls or in the national media.

It was only 1 year before that, that everyone and their dog said Nebraska had no business being in the NCG, yet there they were. Why? Computer rankings.

And I think you're dreaming if something wouldn't have been done to ensure the OSU-Miami matchup, whether in the computers or on the field (you honestly don't think something similar to a "5th Down" would have been out of the realm of possibility?). The BCS can at least sell Nebraska to the general viewing public, regardless of whether they "belonged" there or not. If they had to "allow" ISU to play either Miami or OSU it would have been a ratings and financial disaster compared to Miami-OSU.

[hawkeyeh8r]

If ISU won't make it to the BCS championship as an undefeated team from a major conference, then we would also be a bottom seed in any playoff. How many bottom seeds have won the Super Bowl? The World Series? The NBA championship? Or do we say "we played for the championship!" when even though we got knocked out in the first round?

actually in recent years both the NY Giants and the Packers last year were 6 seeds and won the super bowl IIRC. i know the giants were a 6 seed but i cant remember if the packers were a 5 or 6 seed. either way thats 2 low seeds within the past 5 years that have done it

[UNIGuy4Cy]

Short answer: No.

I put Iowa State's national championship in football odds at the same odds I win the lottery.

Now that is a surprise!!!