2011 Conference W-L Prediction on Stats

[ShopTalk]

I predict the conference records for each team using Jaretac's big 12 conference W-L % adjusted for 2010 season variance (http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/...-big-12-a.html (New W/L records against current Big 12)):

Final 2011 conference Prediction adjusted for 2010 variance:
Hist. Avg. W % (+/-Variance)= W - L
OU = 74% (--) = 7 - 2
MU = 50% (+2) = 7 - 2
OSU = 46% (+2) = 6 - 3
ISU = 30% (+2) = 5 - 4
A&M = 55% (+1) = 5 - 4
KSU = 62% (-1) = 5 - 4
UT = 73% (-2) = 5 - 4
BU = 14% (+2) = 3 - 6
TTU = 59% (-2) = 3 - 6
KU = 31% (-2) = 1 - 8

Details
This is in conference estimate only.

Above formula works like this: (9 games in conference x win %) +/- Variance = Wins

Example: UT = 9 x .73 = 6.57 which rounds up to 7 wins - 2 variance = 5 wins. So total in conference record = 5 - 4

Using a statistics bell curve with overall history against remaining Big 12 teams being the "norm", I estimate all teams will fall within a +/- 2 win range of the historical average.

Here's my scale:
0- 9% variance = flat
10-19% variance = +/- 1
20 - 29% or greater variance = +/- 2
Use Conference variance without NU & CU if different for final.

Using this formula, ISU is the biggest winner in the new conference, jumping +2 in variance - the only team to jump +2.

2010 Conference Records as-is:
Oklahoma (75%) 6-2 12-2 --
Oklahoma St (75%) 6-2 11-2 +2
Texas A&M (75%) 6-2 9-4 +2
Missouri (75%) 6-2 10-3 +2
Baylor (50%) 4-4 7-6 +2
Texas Tech (38%) 3-5 8-5 -2
Kansas State (38%) 3-5 7-6 -2
Iowa State (38%) 3-5 5-7 --
Texas (25%) 2-6 5-7 -2
Kansas (13%) 1-7 3-9 -1

2010 conference Records without NU and CU:
OSU (86%) 6 – 1 +2
MU (83%) 5 – 1 +2
A&M (71%) 5 – 2 +1
OU (67%) 4 – 2 - 1
ISU (50%) 3 - 3 +2
KSU (50%) 3 – 3 -1
BU (43%) 3 - 4 +2
TT (29%) 2 – 5 - 2
TU (14%) 1 – 6 - 2
KU (0%) 0 - 6 - 2

[Erik4Cy]

5-7 (3-5) is exactly what I would predict myself based off practically nothing but intuition. It's good to see a mathematical breakdown of those odds off previous statistics. Good work guys!

[ShopTalk]

No, this shows ISU 5 -4 in conference only. You're looking at the 2010 record that I based variance calculations on...look at the very top listing.

Overall record, I'd guess ISU is 2 - 1 out of conference for a total as shown below:

ISU 7 - 5 (5 - 4)

Looking just at in conference minus NU and CU ISU gains + 2 because both NU and CU were typically losses. Don't know if this holds up or not but if it does, I would expect the in conference wins to come from those shown lower than ISU and would guess the wins to be: KSU, UT, BU, TTU and KU.

ISU could just as easily end up 6 - 6 ( 4 - 5) with most likely UT the extra loss with KSU next most likely.

That said, a 5 - 7 ( 3 -5 ) repeat of last year's record would still be respectable with this schedule and the most likely estimate by fans so far based on earlier polls.

[State43]

ISU is not winning 5 games in conference as much as I would love to see it...

[dmb341]

Something about these calculations seems fishy. I don't think you can just take out Nebraska and Colorado (usually losses) and say we'll be +2 becuase this assumes they'll be replaced with wins.

If you take our win percentage against Nebraska, Colorado, and one non-conference game, and replace it with our win percentage against three south teams, I imagine you'll find that statistically, our win percentage with the new schedule should go down.