You're both likely close - about 7-10. It is a little surprising that the spread is so low and Texas is so low, relatively, in the polls with their history and recruiting.
“We’ve got a pretty good football conference, and we’ve got a pretty good conference overall. We’re still walking around with our heads held high and our chest out, about that.” Paul Rhoads
Texas -3.5 is what I feel is about right.
However, I think it'll be around Texas -6.5 to -10.5
I agree that it will be higher than it should be -- afterall, they still have a uterus on their helmets.
"There are five real good recruits in the state. We got three of them. One couldn’t get into school, and the other went to (the University of) Iowa...which is about the same thing." - Coach Johnny Orr
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