One of the biggest upsets?

**IowaSTATCyclone** · 11-02-2011, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by CyLawyer

Thanks for the info. If anyone can stand listening to T&T, maybe a good question for Scott Spreitzer on Thursday.

Oh, I just thought of the grandaddy, even though I have no idea what the spread was:

UCLA - 66
Texas - 3

I'm sure Texas had to be favored by at least a touchdown (they were coached by Mackovic then and weren't great, but had Ricky Williams and Phil Dawson, and UCLA was 0 and something)

So there you go: 70+ points.

**Hawkeye11en1** · 11-02-2011, 01:16 PM

I found an NC State game against FSU in '98. State was 25 point dogs and won by 17. Still doesn't match it.

**theshadow** · 11-02-2011, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by IowaSTATCyclone

Oh, I just thought of the grandaddy, even though I have no idea what the spread was:

UCLA - 66
Texas - 3

I'm sure Texas had to be favored by at least a touchdown (they were coached by Mackovic then and weren't great, but had Ricky Williams and Phil Dawson, and UCLA was 0 and something)

So there you go: 70+ points.

Texas was a 10-point favorite...so 73.

**Hawkeye11en1** · 11-02-2011, 01:20 PM

Originally Posted by IowaSTATCyclone

Oh, I just thought of the grandaddy, even though I have no idea what the spread was:

UCLA - 66
Texas - 3

I'm sure Texas had to be favored by at least a touchdown (they were coached by Mackovic then and weren't great, but had Ricky Williams and Phil Dawson, and UCLA was 0 and something)

So there you go: 70+ points.

Oh yeah. Texas was ranked at that point. Has to be 70+ or 80+

**Testing123** · 11-02-2011, 01:23 PM

I'm going to guess that Georgia Tech over Cumberland 222-0 in 1916 probably beat the line by a few points.

**cyclones500** · 11-02-2011, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by theshadow

Texas was a 10-point favorite...so 73.

There we have it. Would be surprised if anyone has topped 73.

I have to think there aren't many examples of 50-plus spread swings. I doubt it's common to have a situation like last week — 2-plus TD favorite losing by 5 touchdowns. There are larger spreads that have upsets -- 28-plus, for example -- but I think the outright upset margin tends to be low. Exception, as pointed out earlier in the thread, '98 ISU-Iowa.

The other scenario would be if a team pulled a shocking, yet narrow, victory against a powerhouse that's a huge favorite ... but unless it's a 14-point win, how many lines actually go much above 45 before it becomes an NL? (In cases when they can't make the spread big enough to get enough bets for the underdog to cover).

I'm not well-versed in oddsmaking so I probably didn't describe that very well, or accurately

**Die4Cy** · 11-02-2011, 01:25 PM

OK.

So...

UT-UCLA 73 points
HC-BC 61 points
ISU-TT 52 points

Will add more for posterity if you guys can find them...

In my experience ISU football performs very well against the spread. Oddsmakers either regularly under evaluate the Clones or people inclined to put money down on the Clones only do so with huge lines. Iowa underperfoming against the spread is a good play during conference season too.

**CyLawyer** · 11-02-2011, 01:34 PM

UCLA over Texas reminds of two others:

Texas 70 Colorado 3 (ISU should have been there and it would have been a good game!) and Iowa 55 Texas 17 in the Freedom Bowl.

**Testing123** · 11-02-2011, 01:36 PM

I thought maybe Texas over Colorado 70-3 in the 2005 Big XII championship, but Texas was apparently -28, making it only 39 points over the line.

**Testing123** · 11-02-2011, 01:55 PM

I can't find the odds, but in 1999 #4 Virginia Tech 62-0 over #16 Syracuse was probably in the vicinity of a 45- or 50-point difference from the line.

**VeloClone** · 11-02-2011, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by Testing123

I'm going to guess that Georgia Tech over Cumberland 222-0 in 1916 probably beat the line by a few points.

Considering Cumberland had previously cancelled their football program and only played the game (with a rag tag bunch of volunteers) to avoid paying a monetary penalty for breaking the contract, I highly doubt oddsmakers were willing to put a line on this one.

**Clonefan94** · 11-02-2011, 02:12 PM

I have no idea what the spread was that day, and it definitely wasn't a blowout, but almost 20 years later, I still look back to the '92 Nebraska at ISU game and still can't believe that it happened. Not really trying to compare it necessarily as much as I just had to mention it. Next to '05 Iowa, that was definitely one of the best games I ever saw at JT.

**andybernard** · 11-02-2011, 02:19 PM

Testing123, I think people are only counting upsets...not just beating the line.

**Testing123** · 11-02-2011, 02:21 PM

Originally Posted by andybernard

Testing123, I think people are only counting upsets...not just beating the line.

The OP wrote, "And there have been blow-outs by favored teams but how often has a team beat the spread by 50 points?" Which implies to me that both upsets and non-upsets are being counted.

Not that it makes much difference, since I haven't found one of either that's definitively +50 against the spread.

**Testing123** · 11-02-2011, 02:29 PM

Peripheral to this thread (but kind of interesting), the largest Vegas line in NCAA football history (at least through 1989) was for the '89 Houston/SMU game. Houston was -59½. They covered, 95-21.