Prediction: OSU @ ISU

[Goothrey]

52-17

[brokenloginagain]

58-13 OSU.

i'd be ecstatic if it was even a game after the 1st quarter, and hopefully we're not down by 40 at halftime.

[dualthreat]

Has anyone predicted a close loss yet? I either see glass totally full predictions or totally empty.

[Sloup]

Has anyone predicted a close loss yet? I either see glass totally full predictions or totally empty.

rocky 3 Prediction for the Fight - YouTube

The zone read takes advantage of a weak Cowboy defensive line, which gives Iowa State some options on offense. Can Jared Barnett light up the air? If so, we might stand a chance. I predict an improved passing game, but not on the level necessary for a win. The Cyclone defense stops the best offense in the country about as well as a Kleenex stops a gunshot wound's bleeding.

55-41 Cowboys

Or is that not a close game in your eyes?

[digZ]

Or is that not a close game in your eyes?

I would say in most cases 2 possessions is not a close game. Unless OSU scores a late TD.

[shadow]

On the road for OSU:
59-33 Tulsa
30-29 A&M (12 offensive possessions: 4 punts, 1 fumble, 1 turnover on downs)
38-26 Texas (13 offensive possessions: 6 punts, 1 turnover on downs)
45-24 Mizzou (15 offensive possessions: 6 punts, 1 INT, 1 missed FG)
66-6 Tech

At home for ISU:
20-19 UNI
44-41 Iowa
14-37 Texas (14 defensive possessions: 4 punts, 1 field goal missed, 1 end of game)
17-33 A&M (14 defensive possessions: 5 punts, 1 turnover on downs)
13-10 Kansas (9 defensive possessions: 4 punts, 1 turnover on downs, 2 missed FGs)

So if you take out non-conf games and the Tech game for OSU (bit of an outlier; Tech's in a free fall). The raw averages say OSU 38, ISU 15.

But let's break it down a little farther. In those three B12 games, the stats also say that OSU scores on every other possession (20 out of 40) and averages about 2.83 points per possession.

Let's compare it to ISU's three B12 home games. ISU allows scores on about every other possession (18 out of 37) and averages giving up 2.16 points per possession. Even if you take out Kansas, its still only 2.5. (if you include Texas Tech due to different QB, defense also had 14 possessions there).

So basically it comes down to possessions (Duh!). At 14 possessions for OSU at 2.5 pts per is 35 points. So I would say first one to 35 wins. I hope it is Iowa State. Unfortunately, Rhoads' record when the score is above 24 points is not great...

Though I got a feeling about this game. Reminds of last year's Nebraska game. Should get destroyed, but I think we'll have a shot...

[Cyclonus]

we shock the world... and only lose by 24

[iowast8fan]

OSU 70
ISU 10

[dualthreat]

Or is that not a close game in your eyes?

You also predicited "Pain"

so, which is it?

[SouthTulsaPoke]

On the road for OSU:
59-33 Tulsa
30-29 A&M (12 offensive possessions: 4 punts, 1 fumble, 1 turnover on downs)
38-26 Texas (13 offensive possessions: 6 punts, 1 turnover on downs)
45-24 Mizzou (15 offensive possessions: 6 punts, 1 INT, 1 missed FG)
66-6 Tech

At home for ISU:
20-19 UNI
44-41 Iowa
14-37 Texas (14 defensive possessions: 4 punts, 1 field goal missed, 1 end of game)
17-33 A&M (14 defensive possessions: 5 punts, 1 turnover on downs)
13-10 Kansas (9 defensive possessions: 4 punts, 1 turnover on downs, 2 missed FGs)

So if you take out non-conf games and the Tech game for OSU (bit of an outlier; Tech's in a free fall). The raw averages say OSU 38, ISU 15.

But let's break it down a little farther. In those three B12 games, the stats also say that OSU scores on every other possession (20 out of 40) and averages about 2.83 points per possession.

Let's compare it to ISU's three B12 home games. ISU allows scores on about every other possession (18 out of 37) and averages giving up 2.16 points per possession. Even if you take out Kansas, its still only 2.5. (if you include Texas Tech due to different QB, defense also had 14 possessions there).

So basically it comes down to possessions (Duh!). At 14 possessions for OSU at 2.5 pts per is 35 points. So I would say first one to 35 wins. I hope it is Iowa State. Unfortunately, Rhoads' record when the score is above 24 points is not great...

Though I got a feeling about this game. Reminds of last year's Nebraska game. Should get destroyed, but I think we'll have a shot...

Interesting analysis, but with a couple of flaws in the logic. First, you are assuming that the THREE road games that you leave in for analysis are comparable to ISU. OSU has played a much tougher schedule on the road, than they have at home using this week's Sagarin rankings.

The road rankings are TU #27, A&M #9, UT #13, Mizzou #11 and Tech #44. Even allowing for only A&M, UT and Mizzou, the mean average ranking for those three teams is #11 in the nation. Conversely, ISU is ranked #42, just two notches above Tech. While I don't think you're anywhere near as bad as Tech, I think it is more likely that they are currently over rated, rather than you being under rated. As such, your assumption that OSU's road record against the three toughest teams we've played to date, on the road or otherwise, will compare to what will happen against ISU is not logical.

If I were betting on the Vegas line which last I checked was 27 1/2, I would take ISU. I'm thinking OSU will not cover, but will likely win by something like 22 - 24 points.

Let's call it something like OSU 48, ISU 24.