Kicking in JTS

[besserheimerphat]

Here's an interesting article on weather and how it effects teams in the NFL. Obviously it's not completely applicable to ISU, but it's still the game of football in cold/windy climates played against teams from varied climates and domes.

Advanced NFL Stats: Weather Effects on Passing

[khaal53]

I don't see the numbers that measure wind direction inside the bowl.

I'm not saying it does affect accuracy. On the face, the numbers seem to suggest that it doesn't. I'm saying that I have noticed swirling winds at flag level. I don't have anything to see what is happening at field level where you report nothing but NS winds.

I like Kirk's work, but this is one of the most suspect analyses that I've seen him do. It doesn't take into account kicks that are attempted on windy days vs. kicks on calm(er) days. Can the stats be skewed by fewer or easier kicks being attempted on windier days just as you suggest in you head wind hypothesis above? It's a possibility. I'm not blaming Kirk, he just works with the data he has. I just think it would be ill advised to draw to many conclusions from the limited data available. I certainly wouldn't want to draw the conclusion that the winds don't swirl in JTS simply because kickers kick at a similar or slightly higher percentage rate at JTS as elsewhere. Coaches who know how the kickers were doing in warm ups on a particular day may go for safer attempts on a particular day than they normally would. Headwinds, sidewinds, tailwinds or swirling winds may account for this in addition to the general physical and mental state of the kicker. Or, coaches at ISU may think they get a psychological advantage on the other teams by pimping JTS as a tough place to kick.

I only know that I have heard this about JTS since the Duncan years with multiple coaches and even more kickers and punters. I also know that I have personally witnessed flags pointing in differing directions and those directions changing frequently.

Thanks for the comments, Velo. Trust me, I'm not offended by your assessment on the subject or on how I analyzed it (the only real way to do it with out going game by game and comparing to weather forecasts).

I don't really disagree with you, but over the ten year sampling that includes 65 total games at JTS opponents have made 15% more of their FGA. Could they have better kickers? Could they have a disproportionate number of them taken on calm days? Yes to both.

But it is a small sampling that could be accepted as providing a thought that maybe it isn't the wind that is the problem.

ISU has tried 9 more attempts from 50+ than their oppoonents, 5 more from 40-49, and 7 more from 30-39 while the close range attempts are more equal both in volume and accuracy.

Just an intersting common thought among fans that seems like it may not be true based on the data I compiled. It could clearly be flawed data, but for now, I don't think there has been a more in depth study. There will be someday by someone that is probably smarter than me and better with this than I am, but right now it's all we got. And as I said, it seems to point to the wind not being as big of an issue as portrayed in conventional wisdom would state. But, it is also not disproven with any great certainty.

Not sure if that rambling made sense.

[besserheimerphat]

I don't see the numbers that measure wind direction inside the bowl... It doesn't take into account kicks that are attempted on windy days vs. kicks on calm(er) days... It would be ill advised to draw to many conclusions from the limited data available...

Velo is right on. The only thing the data says is that our kickers are not as good as opponents kickers. Without knowing the temperature and/or wind speed and direction it's impossible to tell if either is having an effect.

The other thing I noticed was in his discussion of "clutch kicks" it only counted games that were decided by 10 points or less. We don't know what the score was when the kick was attempted. We could be losing by 17 late in the game, score a meaningless touchdown, and suddenly all of that game's FGAs are counted as "clutch kicks." The same thing could happen in a game that we won. I wouldn't call those kicks "clutch" unless the score was close at the time they were kicked.

[khaal53]

Btw, I also went through and basically from memory picked the kinda coldish/windyish games at home...ended up with just 16 games for these past 10 seasons.

Without doing all the math actually looks pretty favorable for isu:

<20 1-1
20-29 5-6
30-39 9-14
40-49 5-7
50+ 2-4

[khaal53]

Velo is right on. The only thing the data says is that our kickers are not as good as opponents kickers. Without knowing the temperature and/or wind speed and direction it's impossible to tell if either is having an effect.

The other thing I noticed was in his discussion of "clutch kicks" it only counted games that were decided by 10 points or less. We don't know what the score was when the kick was attempted. We could be losing by 17 late in the game, score a meaningless touchdown, and suddenly all of that game's FGAs are counted as "clutch kicks." The same thing could happen in a game that we won. I wouldn't call those kicks "clutch" unless the score was close at the time they were kicked.

Agreed. Again, I have to pick an arbitrary scoring margin somewhere unless I go through game by game and situation by situation. I admit this up front and I don't present these numbers as the end all and be all of the discussion.

[NickTheGreat]

Nice! This is like a mythbusters episode. I hope this means we can put the wind myth to rest. Truth is we need better quality kickers. Especially when games are on the line. Big kicks at big times.

THIS

[besserheimerphat]

Data availability is the big problem. Now there is detailed play-by-play information published for every game so that analysis like this can be done for any school. Just a few years ago though this wasn't the case so making an arguement using historical data is difficult. Now that so much of the data is being captured, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a "Moneyball" moment for football in the next 10 years.

Thanks for the effort, khaal. I like reading your work.

[khaal53]

Thanks for the comments and I appreciate the discussion.

One thing this has lead to that I'd like to point out is that even the most in depth analyses that I do or that people smarter than me do will never eliminate every variable, there are simply too man to account for and analyze when the occur randomly over the course of play.

That is why the main thing I try and do when I present these is to give the honest data driven evaluation and then draw conclusions. I openly state that these numbers aren't 100% conclusive but where they would appear to lead us if they were crunched even further and more time was used for the work. Some cases can be hashed out more completely than others...this was one where that just isn't going to happen.

[jaretac]

No offense Khaal but I have to agree with Velo that there are too many things variables to be able to declare this as fact or fake. I think we all agree though that it would be very difficult to account for all the variables that can contribute.

Obviously windy day over nice day is a factor. Are you judging the wind as a factor in general or the wind tunnel effect that Velo is talking about? Right or left hash might be important factor. Which end of the field is a factor. Cold can be a factor in the kicking game. I think you really need to compare it to other stadiums in the Big 12 too. See how opponents do in other stadiums other than our own. Last issue is talent. ISU hasn't had good kickers and we have had many good kickers come though JT. Also being able to pressure the kicker can be a factor.

I know I said I wanted to see the passing numbers, but I didn't really expect you to do it. Any of this undertaking just has too much.

I understand that you can hardly ever account for all the variable, but considering all the variables in this one and how dramatically they can affect the outcome, it is impossible to state that our perceptions are false because of your data. The one thing it does show me is that we need better kickers!

[khaal53]

I could give you the passing numbers you mentioned in less than 15 minutes the problem is that I don't think it would tell us much.

[khaal53]

Here are the passing numbers for ISU and their opponents for the past 20 seasons. The first two rows are for away and neutral site games with the top row being the raw totals and the second row being the averages per game.

Rows 3 and 4 are the same deal but for games played at JTS. With this data you can see that it follows the basic trend of the home team performing better than when on the road (except for ISU's yards per game and avg touchdowns per game, and that is a very small difference).

[jaretac]

I could give you the passing numbers you mentioned in less than 15 minutes the problem is that I don't think it would tell us much.

I agree actually. There is just too much involved. If the wind is really bad a good coach will account for that in his game plan to compensate and at a glance you will never know it (you would have to know that playing that way was out of character). This is also much of the problem with the kicking analyses. In general ISU has had worse teams than others in the conference so most likely our numbers will look down compared to our opponents. I think the only real way of knowing how much it is a factor is to do some experiments inside the stadium and then do the same thing at other stadiums to compare.

[jaretac]

Here are the passing numbers for ISU and their opponents for the past 20 seasons. The first two rows are for away and neutral site games with the top row being the raw totals and the second row being the averages per game.

Rows 3 and 4 are the same deal but for games played at JTS. With this data you can see that it follows the basic trend of the home team performing better than when on the road (except for ISU's yards per game and avg touchdowns per game, and that is a very small difference).

You really didn't have to do that, but rep to you. There is a slight advantage to ISU in comp% there. 2% points over 5% points, not much but it's there.

[besserheimerphat]

The problem with trying to account for every little thing is that you end up with a bunch of different categories with a single data point in each one. At that point you don't have enough data to draw any conclusions either. At some point you have to draw the line based on the question you're trying to answer and the data that's available. If there were weather data, then I think there is enough to draw a conclusion. Either way, it's still pretty clear that ISU hasn't kicked as well as it's opponents over the past 10 years.

ISU first started reporting kickoff conditions in the 2006 game notes (I just checked) and it includes kickoff temp, wind speed and direction and high temp during the game. But they don't list explicitly which end of the field the kick was made on (though you could figure it out) or whether it was centered or right/left hash.

[papaw]

Another factor. Has ISU ever recruited and scholarship-ed a deep snapper? Have they ever had an actual punting and kicking coach?