Do we have a shot at a 6-0 start?

**candg4ever** · 06-10-2012, 07:49 PM

I don't know how many starters are back for TCU, but they've got a very solid program. That said, if we can go there undefeated, and I do think we can beat the bumblebees, it'll be interesting. That might be an awfully fun road trip!

**Cycsk** · 06-10-2012, 08:00 PM

Originally Posted by candg4ever

I don't know how many starters are back for TCU, but they've got a very solid program. That said, if we can go there undefeated, and I do think we can beat the bumblebees, it'll be interesting. That might be an awfully fun road trip!

Let's go for 6-0. It is possible. Now is not the time to be doubters, pessimists, or even so-called "realists."

**Cyclonz** · 06-10-2012, 08:26 PM

I've been "dreaming" the same thing 6 and 0 start, we do need to make hay the first half of the season. I think 4 wins is a must and 5 would be awesome.

**klamath632** · 06-10-2012, 08:31 PM

A 6-0 start would be pretty awesome. I'll bet we'd be ranked higher than the Seneca Wallace team that made it to #9 or #11 or whatever.

**Tre4ISU** · 06-10-2012, 08:31 PM

Tulsa scares me. They may scare me more than Iowa. I think in the second week of the season, Iowa will be having pains with the new coaches and new players.

**Diamndpusher** · 06-10-2012, 08:38 PM

Agree 100%....we could start O-1 in a hurry. I like Cody Green alot and I think he has a ton to prove down there. I would hope our depth would out last them but them have a couple interesting players. Not as worried about the Fawkeyes, wouldnt be at all if we were at home.

**clonedude** · 06-10-2012, 08:41 PM

Do we have a shot at a 6-0 start... yes, of course. Is it probable, no.

The problem as I see it is that we are only assured of having 1 win in our first 6 games IMO. That is Western Illinois. If we can't beat them, we won't win a single game anyway, so who cares at that point?

This schedule is once again EXTREMELY tough.

**Doc** · 06-10-2012, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by ketelmeister

Yes, I'm drinking Koolaid, but 6-0 looks like at least a possibility for Iowa State. We will have to be clicking on all cylinders. Here is the schedule

Sep. 1 Tulsa: A game Iowa State needs to win
Sep. 8 at Iowa: Will be a tough road game, but we are capable of a W
Sep. 15 Western Illinois: Hopefully a win at home
Sep. 29 Texas Tech: We have a decent shot at this one
Oct. 6 at TCU: Coming from the Big East, we'll see what they've got
Oct. 13 Kansas State: Gotta be our turn to beat these guys

I'd put 90-1 odds on it. 4-2 would be great.

**Tre4ISU** · 06-10-2012, 09:02 PM

Originally Posted by Doc

I'd put 90-1 odds on it. 4-2 would be great.

No it wouldn't. 6-0 would be great. 4-2 would be okay. I expect 5-1.

**IHavNoCyCash** · 06-10-2012, 09:03 PM

Originally Posted by Tre4ISU

No it wouldn't. 6-0 would be great. 4-2 would be okay. I expect 5-1.

We will be underdogs in at least 3 of these games...5-1 is pushing it.

**Cycsk** · 06-10-2012, 09:03 PM

Here are the games in the order of likelihood that I think we will win.

1. Western Illinois. We should use this game to make a statement, not just win.
2. @ Kansas. Why was it so close last year? This should be a blowout.
3. Baylor. They will be down because of being beaten so often already by others.
4. Texas Tech. Good recruits, but we will be able to handle them early in the season.
5. @ Iowa. We should win, but Kinnick will make them tougher than they really are.
6. Tulsa. They tend to get better as the season goes on. Glad we get them early.
7. @Texas. Very winnable given their problems coming into the season.
8. Kansas State. Must win this game to get to a better bowl.
9. West Virginia. Hoping the Big 12 beats them down before they get to Ames.
10. @ TCU. They will be trying to make a strong entry into the Big 12.
11. @ Oklahoma State. Look out for some bad revenge. Still winnable.
12. Oklahoma. Toughest game, but it would be a great signature win at home.

**IHavNoCyCash** · 06-10-2012, 09:07 PM

Originally Posted by Cycsk

Here are the games in the order of likelihood that I think we will win.

1. Western Illinois. We should use this game to make a statement, not just win.
2. @ Kansas. Why was it so close last year? This should be a blowout.
3. Baylor. They will be down because of being beaten so often already.
4. Texas Tech. Good recruits, but we will be able to handle them early in the season.
5. @ Iowa. We should win, but Kinnick will make them tougher than they really are.
6. Tulsa. They tend to get better as the season goes on. Glad we get them early.
7. @Texas. Very winnable given their problems coming into the season.
8. Kansas State. Must win this game to get to a better bowl.
9. West Virginia. Hoping the Big 12 beats them down before they get to Ames.
10. @ TCU. They will be trying to make a strong entry into the Big 12.
11. @ Oklahoma State. Look out for some bad revenge. Still winnable.
12. Oklahoma. Toughest game, but it would be a great signature win at home.

not bad, I'd put from 1 to 10 in confidence, 10 being guarantee win

1. W Illinois 9
2. @Kansas 7
3. Texas Tech 7
4. Tulsa 7
5. Baylor 6
6. Kansas State 5
7. @Iowa 4
8. @TCU 3
9. West Virginia 3
10. @Texas 2
11. Oklahoma 1
12. @ Oklahoma State (coming for blood) 1

**Cycsk** · 06-10-2012, 09:09 PM

Originally Posted by IHavNoCyCash

not bad, I'd put from 1 to 10 in confidence, 10 being guarantee win

1. W Illinois 9
2. @Kansas 7
3. Texas Tech 7
4. Tulsa 7
5. Baylor 6
6. Kansas State 5
7. @Iowa 4
8. @TCU 3
9. West Virginia 3
10. @Texas 2
11. Oklahoma 1
12. @ Oklahoma State (coming for blood) 1

Don't see Texas being that tough this year. They won't be much better than they were last time in Austin, but we will be!

**Tre4ISU** · 06-10-2012, 09:18 PM

Originally Posted by IHavNoCyCash

We will be underdogs in at least 3 of these games...5-1 is pushing it.

At some point, expectations have to go beyond making a bowl. We can't just sit around forever just satisfied to make a bowl game.

**Rhoadhoused** · 06-10-2012, 09:20 PM

The only decent way to put odds on a certain start is to put a percentage next to each game and multiply them..... I'm not sure why people don't employ this strategy very often. It also makes it easy for people to tell where you really think our chances of beating certain teams are. Instead of W or L, 100% or 0%, you can be much more specific. Here is a quick estimate from me.

Team, Percent chance to win

Sep. 1 Tulsa: 80%
Sep. 8 at Iowa: 40%
Sep. 15 Western Illinois: 90%
Sep. 29 Texas Tech: 70%
Oct. 6 at TCU: 50%
Oct. 13 Kansas State: 50%

Oct. 20 at OK State: 40%
Oct. 27 Baylor: 65%
Nov. 3 Oklahoma: 10%
Nov. 10 at Texas: 40%
Nov. 17 at Kansas: 80%
Nov. 24 West Virginia: 35%

So to go 6-0 the percent chance would be about 5%.

Those odds put us at 6.5 wins for the regular season. Maybe a tad low for my hopes.