how many big 12 wins?

[erikbj]

Last year isu had 3-0 record going into conference play, then got dominated and jantz was a turnover machine. The defense is good enough to keep isu in most/all the games, but jantz needs to be better when the competition gets better.

[Ciclone]

People keep saying they wish we had Iowa's schedule. If we had their schedule, wouldn't we have their talent? I'd rather have our players.

I'm glad we have our schedule, too. Our players won't back down from it.

[Ry4Cy]

Given our history, one more win then expected.

[Dale]

I decided to run a quick simulation of 10,000 seasons given what Massey put as Iowa State's chances to win each of their remaining games (which mostly seems about right to me). The results for each possible record:

3-9: 0.4%
4-8: 3.1%
5-7: 12.6%
6-6: 24.0%
7-5: 28.0%
8-4: 20.0%
9-3: 9.2%
10-2: 2.1%
11-1: 0.4%
12-0: 0.02%

My gut is each of the tails is a little low, because these events aren't exactly independent. But the average of 6.86 wins wouldn't change much even if you corrected for that slightly.

[Ciclone]

I decided to run a quick simulation of 10,000 seasons given what Massey put as Iowa State's chances to win each of their remaining games (which mostly seems about right to me). The results for each possible record:

3-9: 0.4%
4-8: 3.1%
5-7: 12.6%
6-6: 24.0%
7-5: 28.0%
8-4: 20.0%
9-3: 9.2%
10-2: 2.1%
11-1: 0.4%
12-0: 0.02%

My gut is each of the tails is a little low, because these events aren't exactly independent. But the average of 6.86 wins wouldn't change much even if you corrected for that slightly.

Bolded part makes me laugh, but rock on Math Man - I like it!

[Dale]

Honestly, once I set it up, 10,000 seasons took, I dunno, four seconds? Computing power FTW!

[Dale]

One other quick test I ran. ISU's bowl eligibility chances if they beat Texas Tech: 93%. ISU's bowl eligibility changes if they lose: 73% (which, honestly, is higher than I would have guessed).

[stevefrench]

i like how people say "regular season prediction, and 7 (or 8 or whatever) with a bowl win". how the hell can you predict a bowl win? you have absolutely no idea who we could play in a bowl game.

[ShopTalk]

I decided to run a quick simulation of 10,000 seasons given what Massey put as Iowa State's chances to win each of their remaining games (which mostly seems about right to me). The results for each possible record:

3-9: 0.4%
4-8: 3.1%
5-7: 12.6%
6-6: 24.0%
7-5: 28.0%
8-4: 20.0%
9-3: 9.2%
10-2: 2.1%
11-1: 0.4%
12-0: 0.02%

My gut is each of the tails is a little low, because these events aren't exactly independent. But the average of 6.86 wins wouldn't change much even if you corrected for that slightly.

I find it creepy that Massey had projected a 38-3 score for the W. ILL. game and but for a missed extra point, they were right on.

The other thing to keep in mind: Massey is a moving updated target that factors in all results to date weekly to update the estimates. The interesting thing is even though Massey had ISU as 38-3 over W. ILL. at 100% probability of winning, the new estimates are more favorable for ISU's remaining games. I expect that will continue to increase as long as ISU wins.

And all of Massey's updated estimates have ISU within one touchdown for losses of everyone left on the schedule. Except Texas.

[Dale]

The other thing to keep in mind: Massey is a moving updated target that factors in all results to date weekly to update the estimates.

Right. That's why I was saying each of the tails is more likely than what this simple projection was showing. 3-9 and 11-1 are probably each more like 1% or 2% than 0.4%, and 4-10 and 10-2 are going to be more likely as well. I might try to run it again and compensate for that somehow.

[CascadeClone]

I think we only get 2 or 3 wins if we continue to turn the ball over as much as we have the past two weeks. 4-6 wins is possible if we fix our turnover problem.

This is the correct answer, thanks to everyone for playing.

[goclones69]

most likely 3-4. Ku, ttu, bay

[cyclones500]

For now, I'll stick with my preseason feeling — 4 wins.

5-4 is not out of line, even conservatively. Home-Away conference setup seems favorable, ISU '12 is more experienced & deep than '11 in most areas, and Big 12 doesn't seem quite as top-heavy this season.

I won't get ahead of myself beyond that. I have a hunch at least 6 teams in the league are better than every one of the first three opponents.

[cyclone2001]

I want 4 wins, 5 wins will be crazy, probably going to end up with 3, but never put a ceiling on CPR.

My perfect season would be beating TT, TCU, KSU and then kansas at the end of the season.

[Boxerdaddy]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict somewhere in the 2-8 conference win range.