The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

**Judoka** · 10-22-2012, 05:17 PM

I ran the numbers for both how Baylor performs relative to their opponent averages and how ISU performs relative to their opponent averages. I limited it to Big XII games only (though opponent averages include all games because calculating that on my own would have been way too much work). Here's what I came up with.

First let's look at Baylor and Iowa State's own averages (again, for all games):

Baylor	Offense	Scoring	48
		Rushing Yards	184
		Passing Yards	391
		Total Yards	574
	Defense	Scoring	44
		Rushing Yards	197
		Passing Yards	356
		Total Yards	533
Iowa State	Offense	Scoring	24
		Rushing Yards	137
		Passing Yards	206
		Total Yards	343
	Defense	Scoring	20
		Rushing Yards	138
		Passing Yards	245
		Total Yards	383

Now let's consider now Baylor's Big XII Opponents have fared against Baylor relative to their own average performance:

Opponent Offense	Scoring	+18
	Rushing Yards	+44
	Passing Yards	+103
	Total Yards	+147
Opponent Defense	Scoring	+13
	Rushing Yards	+13
	Passing Yards	+140
	Total Yards	+153

So if you plug in ISU's average to how Baylor's Big XII opponent's have fared against Baylor relative to their overall average the game will look like this:

Iowa State	Scoring	42
	Rushing Yards	181
	Passing Yards	309
	Total Yards	490
Baylor	Scoring	33
	Rushing Yards	151
	Passing Yards	385
	Total Yards	536

A 44-33 Iowa State Cyclones victory!

Looking instead at Iowa State's numbers:

Opponent Offense	Scoring	-16
	Rushing Yards	-56
	Passing Yards	10
	Total Yards	-47
Opponent Defense	Scoring	0
	Rushing Yards	2
	Passing Yards	-22
	Total Yards	-20

Plugging in Baylor's average compared to how ISU's Big XII opponent's have fared against ISU relative to their overall average the game will look like this:

Iowa State	Scoring	44
	Rushing Yards	194
	Passing Yards	334
	Total Yards	528
Baylor	Scoring	32
	Rushing Yards	128
	Passing Yards	401
	Total Yards	529

Slice it one way we win by 11, slice it another we win by 12. Either way we walk out of Jack Trice on Saturday with a double digit win.

**terryleebr** · 10-22-2012, 05:19 PM

I really don't see our defense scoring that many points.

**Judoka** · 10-22-2012, 05:25 PM

Originally Posted by terryleebr

I really don't see our defense scoring that many points.

With the Baylor defense they won't need to.

**Judoka** · 10-22-2012, 05:28 PM

I'm amazed how similar two different ways of approaching the prediction in up, both in points and yardage. That makes me feel much better about this analysis.

**Cyclonz** · 10-22-2012, 06:08 PM

I hope you are right - we need this win!!!

**Erik4Cy** · 10-22-2012, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by Judoka

With the Baylor defense they won't need to.

I'm to assume the Baylor defenders are going to take the ball from Jantz or Barnett's hand and make the throws to wide open Iowa State receivers FOR THEM?

**Judoka** · 10-22-2012, 06:47 PM

Originally Posted by Erik4Cy

I'm to assume the Baylor defenders are going to take the ball from Jantz or Barnett's hand and make the throws to wide open Iowa State receivers FOR THEM?

Baylor's Big XII opponents have averaged 100+ yards over their season average (including FCS and non-BCS games) when playing Baylor. We'll be able to pass. Our QB, whoever it is, will have time to think and check down.

**cloneteach** · 10-22-2012, 06:50 PM

Any way to run this for some of the other games already played and see how close this model is?

**Judoka** · 10-22-2012, 06:56 PM

Originally Posted by cloneteach

Any way to run this for some of the other games already played and see how close this model is?

Depending on how bored I get tomorrow. I manually compiled the stats for this one. I know it won't be perfect - the averages are based off of only a handful of games. But I like to think it's a good start and I was hoping it would take the edge off of some of the doom and gloom around here.

**xboxfever** · 10-22-2012, 07:00 PM

Originally Posted by Judoka

Baylor's Big XII opponents have averaged 100+ yards over their season average (including FCS and non-BCS games) when playing Baylor. We'll be able to pass. Our QB, whoever it is, will have time to think and check down.

You are going to be in for a let down Saturday from ISU's offense. Sorry pal. Just because everyone else scores big on Baylor, doesn't mean ISU will.

**Judoka** · 10-22-2012, 07:33 PM

Originally Posted by xboxfever

You are going to be in for a let down Saturday from ISU's offense. Sorry pal. Just because everyone else scores big on Baylor, doesn't mean ISU will.

Tulsa is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 38 on them.
TCU is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 37 on them.
K-State is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 21 on them.

We aren't setting the world on fire but the season isn't a loss because we are 4-3.

**xboxfever** · 10-22-2012, 07:46 PM

Originally Posted by Judoka

Tulsa is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 38 on them.
TCU is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 37 on them.
K-State is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 21 on them.

We aren't setting the world on fire but the season isn't a loss because we are 4-3.

And the offense has steadily gotten worse as far as execution, play calling, and confidence with each game. Statistically Oklahoma State is worse than TCU, Kansas State, and Texas Tech defensively and they only scored 10 on them. Your stats are irrelevant. Stats aren't everything.

**AIBClone** · 10-22-2012, 09:53 PM

You could have something here. Lets be honest, we have been inconsistent over the past 4 years, but we have shown glimpses of brilliance too. 3 weeks in a row of bad play on offense is possible, but not likely. I think we get it figured out this week before we start dropping the ball again.