What does Vegas have against us?

**khardbored** · 11-17-2012, 08:38 AM

The line started at ISU favored by 8.0 early in the week, quickly moved to 7.0/6.5/6.0... last night I looked it was 4.5 ... I wake up this AM and it's down to 4.0!

What's the deal? Do they know something new, or just lots of people taking Kansas plus the points?

Over/under is 47.5, so the final score is expected to be
25.75 ISU
21.75 KU

Odds - NCAA FB - spread | FOX Sports on MSN

**TheBentStick** · 11-17-2012, 08:42 AM

Money moves the line. Nothing else.

**Judoka** · 11-17-2012, 08:44 AM

Vegas sets the initial line where they think 50% of the money will go to each side. If more than 50% of the money bet starts to go to one side the line moves.

**chuckd4735** · 11-17-2012, 08:47 AM

People are betting on KU, Vegas is just trying to bring in even money.

**everyyard** · 11-17-2012, 08:53 AM

I've always been fascinated by what a poor understanding most people have about sports lines. The above posters are correct. The line moves to balance the money, nothing more, nothing less. You want to see the line go back up? Go put several million dollars on ISU.

**CRcyclone6** · 11-17-2012, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by everyyard

I've always been fascinated by what a poor understanding most people have about sports lines. The above posters are correct. The line moves to balance the money, nothing more, nothing less. You want to see the line go back up? Go put several million dollars on ISU.

I think it's time for another "what channel is the game on" thread

**brianhos** · 11-17-2012, 09:03 AM

Originally Posted by khardbored

The line started at ISU favored by 8.0 early in the week, quickly moved to 7.0/6.5/6.0... last night I looked it was 4.5 ... I wake up this AM and it's down to 4.0!

What's the deal? Do they know something new, or just lots of people taking Kansas plus the points?

Over/under is 47.5, so the final score is expected to be
25.75 ISU
21.75 KU

Odds - NCAA FB - spread | FOX Sports on MSN

You have no idea how this stuff works do you? Vegas only sets the open line, then they move it based on where bets are going. Bettors are putting money on KU which is moving the line down.

**Judoka** · 11-17-2012, 09:19 AM

What this does mean though is that a lot of the 'smart money' that comes in late was betting on Kansas to cover.

**khaal53** · 11-17-2012, 09:21 AM

Also, 52% of the bets are coming in on ISU, which exacerbates the idea about the big money being on KU.

**SeattleClone** · 11-17-2012, 10:59 AM

Actually I heard the Des Moines Register and David Ubben called Las Vegas and told them how bad we suck.

**CTTB78** · 11-17-2012, 12:07 PM

I feel good about the bookies initial line that we would win by 8. This late in the season, they have have a pretty accurate read on the matchups.

Iowa State 31
kansas 23

**michaelrr1** · 11-17-2012, 01:12 PM

Originally Posted by CTTB78

I feel good about the bookies initial line that we would win by 8. This late in the season, they have have a pretty accurate read on the matchups.

Iowa State 31
kansas 23

Vegas doesn't set the line at what they believe the outcome of the game will be. They set it at how they think people will bet to get even money on both sides.

**cyclonedave25** · 11-17-2012, 01:16 PM

If anything, Vegas had too much respect for us with the line opening at -8.

**FDWxMan** · 11-17-2012, 01:20 PM

Originally Posted by khaal53

Also, 52% of the bets are coming in on ISU, which exacerbates the idea about the big money being on KU.

52% of the bets =/ 52% of the money.

**khaal53** · 11-17-2012, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by FDWxMan

52% of the bets =/ 52% of the money.

That's the point. At the time I posted that 52% of the bets had come in on ISU while the line had still moved 2 total points toward KU. Meaning that the big (smart) money has been coming in on Kansas (to balance out that 50/50 money split everyone is talking about).