Bowl Rematch Trends (Spoiler: We Lose)

[ISUCyclones2015]

Date	Bowl	Score of First Game	Bowl Result	Same Winner?
1/1/04	Gator	Maryland 34-7 West Virginia	Maryland 41-7 West Virginia	Yes
1/1/04	Orange	Miami 22-14 Florida St	Miami 16-14 Florida St	Yes
12/22/07	Las Vegas	UCLA 27-17 BYU	BYU 17-16 UCLA	No
12/26/07	Motor City	Purdue 45-22 Central Michigan	Purdue 51-48 Central Michigan	Yes
12/31/08	Armed Forces	Air Force 31-28 Houston	Houston 34-28 Air Force	No
12/28/08	Eagle Bank	Navy 24-17 Wake Forest	Wake Forest 29-19 Navy	No
12/30/10	Holiday	Nebraska 56-21 Washington	Washington 19-7 Nebraska	No
1/9/11	BCS Title	LSU 9-6 Alabama	Alabama 21-0 LSU	No
12/31/12	Liberty	Iowa State 38-23 Tulsa	?	?

So 3 out of 8 times has the previous team won... It is very very very hard to beat a team twice in the same year.

Go Cyclones and I am glad we're in a bowl but I am not a fan of this rematch business

[CyArob]

**** you Gumby!

[MeanDean]

There was also an OU/Nebby Orange Bowl rematch in the 80's. It also had the previous winner losing in the bowl game.

[cycfan1]

So roughly 50%? That's not much of a trend.

[cycloneNATEion]

We'll be fine. We beat them fairly handily the first time and there isn't much of a trend at 3/8

[Clone96]

Well, screw it. Forfeit the game right now.

[CyCloned]

I was at the ISU vs Tulsa game and ISU was clearly the better team, and it was not even close after the defense figured out that they had to press the Tulsa receivers and take away the really shot thows.

[DirtyDanchez]

Tulsa just beat UCF twice in three weeks.

[TykeClone]

We won by 15 against them the first time.

Looking at the chart, there were three games listed where the spread was that large or larger in the first meeting and the team that won the first game was 2-1 in those bowls.

[bostrem00]

Also ISU is missing a few key components from that W too....I wonder how much CPR actually showed Tulsa the first time around.

[CyAndrew23]

Has JP seen this info? We should go to the Indy Bowl begging to let us go to Shreveport.

[cyclones500]

I don't like bowl rematches, either, but I was curious how often it happened.

Trends don’t tell us anything, although I assumed the question about the results would arise at some point.


Here's a recent article (January '12) that includes more examples:


College football rematches typically produce a different winner


Headline is misleading, since it’s about 50-50. That isn’t “typically" anything.


“Of the 41 rematches that I found in college football history, the loser of Game 1 is 21-20 in Game 2.”


“But at least we can agree that the Game 1 result has very little to do with what will happen in Game 2.”

Something in the .500 range should be obvious. On average, teams are likely to get postseason pairings with similar-level opponents. Could be circumstances when one team improves immensely and regular-season winner levels out or is moving downward.

[00clone]

I don't like bowl rematches, either, but I was curious how often it happened.

Trends don’t tell us anything, although I assumed the question about the results would arise at some point.


Here's a recent article (January '12) that includes more examples:


College football rematches typically produce a different winner


Headline is misleading, since it’s about 50-50. That isn’t “typically" anything.


“Of the 41 rematches that I found in college football history, the loser of Game 1 is 21-20 in Game 2.”


“But at least we can agree that the Game 1 result has very little to do with what will happen in Game 2.”

Something in the .500 range should be obvious. On average, teams are likely to get postseason pairings with similar-level opponents. Could be circumstances when one team improves immensely and regular-season winner levels out or is moving downward.

Linked article is clearly written by a statistics major. Or, suhtistics, as they say in Indiana.

[AllInForISU]

Also ISU is missing a few key components from that W too....I wonder how much CPR actually showed Tulsa the first time around.

Well, Sam didnt play so there is that...I feel like not having a turnover machine playing qb gives us an advantage we didnt necessarily have last time.

[cyhiphopp]

Well, Sam didnt play so there is that...I feel like not having a turnover machine playing qb gives us an advantage we didnt necessarily have last time.

Steele actually played really well in that game. One pick off a tipped pass by a TE who really hasn't played much since.

If Steele did that well, that tells me that Tulsa's defense is just not that good. We've seen what Sammy Football does to bad defenses (KU).