My problem is when we get around to contract negotiations again and teams are only looking at a couple years left of the GoR, will that be an acceptable loss for them to move? I want to see our conference proactive in getting this locked up years before it takes affect or we might see wandering eyes.
Assuming that the GOR penalty is binding and will be enforced, that penalty can only act to solidify the conference if all conference members cannot afford to bear the penalty. That isn't the case in the Big 12. As I've shown above, at least on the surface, it appears that UT could right now withstand the GOR penalty and continue to function. No other Big 12 school can do that. And if UT were to leave, the Big 12 would be devastated, and those with viable options would be looking to get out as soon as they could afford to do so. Is this really an iron-clad stable arrangement? The whole thing really hinges on UT being satisfied where they are now.
And for those asking who would take UT with a GOR penalty around their neck for x number of years...well, that depends on what the GOR covers. If UT leaves with some TV rights (and the consensus here seems to be that they would at least leave with their $15 million/year Tier 3 LHN rights for sure), they could possibly turn those over to the new conference as compensation until the GOR penalty expires.
As I said above, there don't seem to be any obvious reason why UT would jump ship, especially raking in the cash as they are now. But I also don't think the Big GOR makes the conference as impervious to expansion as some think.