Not the first or the last 2008 iowa state football prediction

MontyBurns · 02-15-2008, 07:08 PM

Game, % chance of winning, and comments:

Thu, Aug 28 South Dakota State Ames, Iowa
95% This is a mismatch in every phase of the game and the first time most of the SDSt players will play on this big of a stage.

Sat, Sep 06 Kent State Ames, Iowa
75% Classic trap game since we won't really be challenged in week 1, we may look ahead to the emotional Iowa game next week, and Kent State is a very respectable team.

Sat, Sep 13 Iowa at Iowa City, Iowa
85% Arnaud's first road start in front of a hostile crowd is the biggest concern. But he doesn't have to be perfect, he just has to avoid mistakes -- Iowa is seriously bad and will be lucky to score double digits against us.

Sat, Sep 20 UNLV at Las Vegas, Nev.
65% A lot working against us here -- a long road trip, the distractions of Las Vegas, our first night road game (in an off-campus stadium that serves beer), and the revenge factor from our close win over UNLV in Ames. UNLV came within an eyelash of beating Wisconsin last year in Vegas. We need to travel well for this game.

Sat, Oct 04 Kansas * Ames, Iowa
10% We saw a big talent gap last year in Lawrence, bigger than home field will probably make up for us.

Sat, Oct 11 Baylor * at Waco, Texas
70% This is a pretty key game for us; conference road wins are few and far between and Waco gives us a good chance to pick one up.

Sat, Oct 18 Nebraska * Ames, Iowa
75% No problem getting up for this game and I think it will be Homecoming. NU is also in disarray and will likely take a big step backward with their coaching change to Bo Hothead Pelini.

Sat, Oct 25 Texas A&M * Ames, Iowa
65% I believe A&M has more talent than us but they are starting over after firing Coach Newsletter. I'd like our chances better if we played them in week 1 of the conference season.

Sat, Nov 01 Oklahoma State * at Stillwater, Okla.
40%
Another good chance to pick up a road win but we need some luck against the Cowboys.

Sat, Nov 08 Colorado * at Boulder, Colo.
70%
They are in rebuilding mode and haven't shown me anything yet.

Sat, Nov 15 Missouri * Ames, Iowa
5% We actually played well against them last year but we're not quite in their class yet.

Sat, Nov 22 Kansas State * at Manhattan, Kan.
80% We dominated them last year and motivation shouldn't be a factor - we'll likely be playing for a bowl game. It's also a location where our fans can show up and be a factor.

Adding it up:

.95+.75+.85+.65+.10+.70+.75+.65+.40+.70+.05+.80 = 7.35 expected wins

Predicted record: 7-5

rhillary · 02-15-2008, 07:15 PM

Thu, Aug 28 South Dakota State Ames, Iowa- W
Sat, Sep 06 Kent State Ames, Iowa - W
Sat, Sep 13 Iowa at Iowa City, Iowa - Toss-up (literally 50-50 right now in my mind)
Sat, Sep 20 UNLV at Las Vegas, Nev- W
Sat, Oct 04 Kansas * Ames, Iowa -L
Sat, Oct 11 Baylor * at Waco, Texas -W
Sat, Oct 18 Nebraska * Ames, Iowa -L
Sat, Oct 25 Texas A&M * Ames, Iowa -L
Sat, Nov 01 Oklahoma State * at Stillwater, Okla.- L
Sat, Nov 08 Colorado * at Boulder, Colo.- Toss-up (odds in CU's favor)
Sat, Nov 15 Missouri * Ames, Iowa - L
Sat, Nov 22 Kansas State * at Manhattan, Kan.- Toss-up (odds in our favor)

I see us winning 4 for sure, and anyway from 0 to 3 more. The best we can do (realisticly) is 7 wins unless we get 1 HUGE upset somewhere and get 8. I realisticly see us geting 5, 6 if can can stay injury free.

PolkCityClone · 02-16-2008, 07:44 AM

At this point, I just want to win the first two non conference games. That would show improvement.

ISUonthemove · 02-16-2008, 08:08 AM

Just want to win more than last year.

CycloneErik · 02-16-2008, 08:08 AM

Originally Posted by wolverine68

Thu, Aug 28 South Dakota State Ames, Iowa W
Sat, Sep 06 Kent State Ames, Iowa W
Sat, Sep 13 Iowa at Iowa City, Iowa W
Sat, Sep 20 UNLV at Las Vegas, Nev. W
Sat, Oct 04 Kansas * Ames, Iowa W
Sat, Oct 11 Baylor * at Waco, Texas W
Sat, Oct 18 Nebraska * Ames, Iowa W
Sat, Oct 25 Texas A&M * Ames, Iowa W
Sat, Nov 01 Oklahoma State * at Stillwater, Okla. W
Sat, Nov 08 Colorado * at Boulder, Colo. W
Sat, Nov 15 Missouri * Ames, Iowa W
Sat, Nov 22 Kansas State * at Manhattan, Kan. W

12-0 Baby!!! Unfortunately, we get stiffed by the BCS and end up playing EIU in the Humanitarian Bowl (winning 70-0) while a 9-3 USC teams defeats a 7-5 Notre Dame team in the BCS Championship game (63-0).

Oh, come on now. Who says Notre Dame wins 7? I think USC beats OSU in the BCS game 63-0!

Someone had a good idea at work: (off-topic a little)
1) OSU can't win the title game
2) OU can't win the Fiesta Bowl
3) Both teams keep getting in.
4) New tradition: OU/OSU in the Fiesta Bowl!

scyclonekid · 02-16-2008, 08:39 AM

I really think we can win the Nebraska game and bring cyclone power for the aTm game!!

cycloneryan · 02-16-2008, 09:08 AM

That seems pretty optimistic. There is going to be a game or two that we lose that we should win. I look for an improved record of 6 to 7 wins and a crappy bowl game. Then in '09 we take the Big 12 by storm.

j4state · 02-16-2008, 09:14 AM

Win the first 2, split the Iowa and UNLV games, take either the Neb or A&M game at home and find one road game to win in conference (Bay, or K St). That adds up to 5-7, no more than 6 wins and no less than 4.

Anyone who is predicting 7 or more wins should prepare for disappointment. 4 or more and I can't complain.

Al_4_State · 02-16-2008, 09:30 AM

Originally Posted by j4state

Win the first 2, split the Iowa and UNLV games, take either the Neb or A&M game at home and find one road game to win in conference (Bay, or K St). That adds up to 5-7, no more than 6 wins and no less than 4.

Anyone who is predicting 7 or more wins should prepare for disappointment. 4 or more and I can't complain.

I agree. I see wins in three of the first four. I think we beat Iowa and lose to UNLV. Bottomline, Iowa's O is god awful, and we will be decent on D. UNLV just seems like the type of game we always lose (see last year in Toledo). I think we will be in a lot of close conference games, and right off the bat I think we beat Baylor, NU, and maybe A&M. 5 wins seems like a reasonable prediction, but I think this team could win 6. We'll see what happens. Can't wait for August.

AirWalke · 02-16-2008, 10:01 AM

My initial thoughts...

vs. SDSU - 100% - A must win. Losing this game would be an even worse start than last year.
vs. Kent State - 95% - Another must win. 2-0 is imperative to keep the momentum up for this year.
at Iowa - 30% - Not really sure on this one. We always play tough at Iowa, and Austen's first road start is doubtful.
at UNLV - 50% - Not sure on this one too, but it should be winnable.
vs. Kansas - 25% - I'm leaning towards a loss, but it'd be a good upset to start the Big 12 season off.
at Baylor - 50% - New coach, new system at Baylor, but this seems like one of those road games that should be winnable, but won't. I'll say if we beat UNLV, we lose to Baylor... and visa versa.
vs. Nebraska - 65% - Dead heat, but the advantage goes to us because it's at home.
vs. Texas A&M - 60% - Better team than Nebraska, but again, it's a new coach and it's on the road for them. Advantage ISU.
at Oklahoma State - 40% - Not expecting a win here. It'd be nice, but OSU is a bit better than their record indicated last year.
at Colorado - 30% - Probably will not happen, but it definitely could. CU's going to be a 7-8 win team this year.
vs. Missouri - 45% - Late season game that, after a series of close wins or disappointing losses, could end up in our favor as an ISU team desperate to prove themselves pulls a big one and upsets the Big 12 title picture.
at KSU - 50% - Things are going south for KSU at this point, and considering it's probably their last home game (haven't looked at their schedule yet), but they'll probably want to send Prince out as a winner.

Percentages add up to 6.4... so a 6-6 season with barely a bowl berth.

Cyclone42 · 02-16-2008, 01:30 PM

Remember two years ago, Dan Mac's last year? Almost every prediction was around 8-4, 7-5 AT WORST. Then the first game began and the wheels fell off the wagon. Next year's team will not be as good as that team.

Not saying that we're gonna go winless, but I think any predictions better than 6-6 are baseless.

Aclone · 02-16-2008, 06:29 PM

I'd have to wait at least until after Spring Practice for an honest evaluation...

That said, I think we have a decent shot at Iowa, even in IC, but we'll see. They should have a nasty pass rush, but iffy corners, so it depends on how our OL shakes out.

superfan · 02-16-2008, 06:37 PM

Personally, I'd be overjoyed if we won three non-conference games and one conference game. Everything beyond that would just be gravy.

MontyBurns · 02-16-2008, 08:54 PM

Originally Posted by Cyclone42

Remember two years ago, Dan Mac's last year? Almost every prediction was around 8-4, 7-5 AT WORST. Then the first game began and the wheels fell off the wagon. Next year's team will not be as good as that team.

Not saying that we're gonna go winless, but I think any predictions better than 6-6 are baseless.

Nobody says we're going to be great (except for a few unrealistic fans), but the schedule is extremely easy:

1. No Texas
2. No Oklahoma
3. No Texas Tech
4. Iowa sucks (not a general statement, their football team has very little talent).
5. Nebraska plays in Ames and they suck (see above).

If we stay injury free there is no reason we won't win 6-7 games and play in a bowl game.

Aclone · 02-16-2008, 10:10 PM

Originally Posted by MontyBurns

Nobody says we're going to be great (except for a few unrealistic fans), but the schedule is extremely easy:

4. Iowa sucks (not a general statement, their football team has very little talent).

Four words for you. Ballard, King, Kroul and Clayborn. If the line can't pass block (or create holes), it's going to be a long afternoon. Too soon to dismiss Iowa.