BleacherReport prediction for SDSvsISU

jaretac · 06-19-2008, 03:54 PM

BleacherReport.com is predicting which FCS teams will upset FBS teams in 2008. They have South Dakota St. vs. ISU at #7.

You can read it at: College Football: Predicting the 2008 FCS Upsets, Part II | Bleacher Report

7. South Dakota State at Iowa State (Aug. 28)
Iowa State struggled tremendously in their first year under former Texas defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, going only 3-9 despite having a veteran quarterback in Brett Meyer back.

Chizik’s team did show improvement down the stretch, as they won two out of their last three games against Big 12 competition, including a stunning 31-28 upset over Colorado.

Nevertheless, they lose a four-year starter at quarterback in Brett Meyer, as well as big play wide receiver Todd Blyth, who moves on after becoming Iowa State’s all-time leading receiver. The Cyclones do 14 fourteen starters for 2008, including their three top rushers from 2007 and four starting offensive lineman.

However, this was an offense that averaged a paltry 18.2 points per game, and was held under 20 points per game on eight separate occasions last season (including games against Kent State and Northern Iowa).

Chizik is a great defensive mind, but he’s never had to gameplan for an FCS team with the kind of talent he had at Auburn and Texas, so it was no surprise that his Cyclones fell to Northern Iowa in week two last season.

While he has seven starters back to work with, he loses his two best assets in linebackers Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks, and with them the heart and soul of his defense. He’ll need more than scheme if he’s going to stop South Dakota State’s offense; he’s going to need to inspire effort and intensity.

South Dakota State won the Gateway Conference in their first year of conference competition last season and finished the year ranked 19th in the country after pulling off an upset of powerhouse North Dakota State in the finale.

South Dakota State loses a number of key players off of the offense and the defense but does return their starting quarterback Ryan Berry, who came on strong after a shaky opening to the 2007 season.

The Jackrabbits have a core group of underrated skill position players, including receiver JaRon Harris, who is widely considered one of the best “small school” draft prospects in the country.

I’m also very high on running back Kyle Minett, who excelled during spot duty for departing senior Cory Koening last season. Major losses from the defensive side of the football could hurt the Jackrabbits, but that’s assuming Iowa State’s Austen Arnaud and company are in a position to strike early and often (a big “if” at this point)

One thing I look for when predicting upsets are FCS teams that have a mentality of winning and FBS teams which have struggled against FCS competition in recent years.

This matchup is clearly a case, of both as South Dakota State comes off of a 7-4 season and a 4-0 record in conference play while Iowa State is coming off of a 24-13 loss to Northern Iowa last season and a 3-9 record.

South Dakota State’s main problem over the last few seasons has been inconsistent quarterback play, but with Ryan Berry coming back they should be able to more easily disseminate the ball to their playmakers, including potential NFL prospect JaRon Harris.

I think Chizik will have Iowa State headed in the right direction sooner rather than later, but he’s just not an offensive mind, and considering just how poorly Iowa State’s offense started last season (not to mention a new quarterback replacing a four-year starter) there isn’t precedence for Iowa State to score many points against even a rebuilding South Dakota State defense.

South Dakota State is a talented FCS team, and after a strong finish last year I give the Jackrabbits a decent shot at knocking at an Iowa State team which is undergoing an identity change.

CycloneWanderer · 06-19-2008, 03:57 PM

Hmmm . . . selective information is silly.

cardinal&gold · 06-19-2008, 04:00 PM

I tend to discredit people like this when their writing sucks.

rworkman83 · 06-19-2008, 04:01 PM

I'm pretty sure that Northern Iowa Won the Gateway Conference, which has now been renamed to the Missouri Valley Football Conference.

jaretac · 06-19-2008, 04:02 PM

They also have LSU vs. Appalachian St. as #10 on the list.

That is here: When David Meets Goliath: Predicting the 2008 FCS Upsets | Bleacher Report

bmuff · 06-19-2008, 04:02 PM

I think that he's reaching a little there. ISU is not "coming off a loss to UNI", it is coming off a loss to KU that was preceded by wins vs KSU and CU. The ISU team that ended last year would NOT have had a problem with UNI. Also, calling Jon Banks one of the "two biggest assets" on defense is an exaggeration. To me, he was the third best LB and was pretty far down the list if I were to rate the starters. Rubin and Braaksma were MUCH bigger losses than Banks.

The only way SDSU is close to ISU is if the new QB starts turning over the ball. And if that happens, look for ISU to start running option.

jdoggivjc · 06-19-2008, 04:09 PM

I pretty much stopped reading after I read this bit:

South Dakota State won the Gateway Conference in their first year of conference competition last season and finished the year ranked 19th in the country after pulling off an upset of powerhouse North Dakota State in the finale.

1. Northern Iowa won the Gateway Conference last year (going undefeated during the regular season) - kind of hard to finish first with a 7-4 record when a team supposedly in the same conference as you is undefeated
2. SDSU isn't even in the Gateway Conference - they're in the Great West Conference
3. SDSU didn't even win the Great West Conference - NDSU won it with a 10-1 record. Granted, SDSU did finish second with a 7-4 record, but like that's saying a lot when the Great West Conference only has 5 teams...

Seriously - if this guy can't take the time to do his research I'm not going to bother listening to his predictions. SDSU could possibly beat us, but I'm not going to use his argument as a legitimate reason...

ISU BET · 06-19-2008, 04:11 PM

actually, they did win their conference last year.
SDSU Football History - GoJacks.com—Official Web Site of South Dakota State Athletics

they won all 4 of their conference games:
http://www.gojacks.com/SportSelect.d...&Q_SEASON=2007

Aclone · 06-19-2008, 04:13 PM

Originally Posted by jaretac

BleacherReport.com is predicting which FCS teams will upset FBS teams in 2008. They have South Dakota St. vs. ISU at #7.

My first reaction was...ROTFL!

While he has seven starters back to work with, he loses his two best assets in linebackers Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks, and with them the heart and soul of his defense. He’ll need more than scheme if he’s going to stop South Dakota State’s offense; he’s going to need to inspire effort and intensity.

Good grief...compared to SDSU, Chizik has Texas and Auburn's personnel.

And no, he's never been an offensive mind, but that hardly means that our offense isn't in good hands.

This guy apparently has a problem distinguishing between settling in under a new coach, and being a poor team.

And I'm quite happy with Raven, Bibbs and Bell as replacements at linebacker, thank you very much.

Originally Posted by bmuff

The only way SDSU is close to ISU is if the new QB starts turning over the ball. And if that happens, look for ISU to start running option.

Actually, I figured if that unlikely event were to occur, they'd just start running, period. Stuffing the ball down the throat of the Jackrabbits.

bostinelosd · 06-19-2008, 04:14 PM

I gurantee this wont be a cakewalk, but I dont think they will take us. Should be a good game.

CyinCo · 06-19-2008, 04:15 PM

Stupid article. Besides the grammar and spelling issues, too much emphasis is put on how ISU STARTED last season and not how ISU finished. How can you cite the UNI loss in week 2 as a reason ISU could lose? That was a long time ago and the team is different since then. Also, why keep pointing out that Chizik isn't an offensive mind? Teams have coordinators and I think we have a good one.

Bader · 06-19-2008, 04:16 PM

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'll be really uncomfortable until we get up on these guys by at least 10 points, this game scares the hell out of me

jdoggivjc · 06-19-2008, 04:21 PM

Originally Posted by ISU BET

actually, they did win their conference last year.
SDSU Football History - GoJacks.com—Official Web Site of South Dakota State Athletics

they won all 4 of their conference games:
Football - Schedule & Results - GoJacks.com—Official Web Site of South Dakota State Athletics

Ok, I blame ESPN for my mix-up with my facts. On their Great West Conference page it has NDSU listed as first, SDSU listed as second, with no conference standings listed...

ESPN - Great West Conference News, Schedule, Players, Stats, Video - College Football

stupid ESPN...

jaretac · 06-19-2008, 04:29 PM

Originally Posted by CyinCo

How can you cite the UNI loss in week 2 as a reason ISU could lose?

He also has LSU possibly losing to Appalachian St, WHY? Is he really putting Appalachian St., LSU and Michigan on the same level?

Apart from this I have always thought that ISUvsSDSU would be a closer game than any of us would like. I don't think ISU will loss, but if I had to pick the 10 most likely FBS upsets by FCS teams- I would probably pick this game as one of them.

cardinal&gold · 06-19-2008, 04:29 PM

Originally Posted by Bader

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'll be really uncomfortable until we get up on these guys by at least 10 points, this game scares the hell out of me

And right now, this should really be the only game that we care about. Too many folks are more worried about how we'll do against Iowa than how we'll do against SDSU.