2009 way too early Prediction Thread Part 2: Conf. 1st Half

As promised yesterday, here are my thoughts on our first 4 conference games and the opponents. I'm not messing around, I'm ready for some football. My lineups are based on rivals depth charts which are notorious for being off, please bear with me and correct if I'm wrong.

It's pretty long so enjoy if you have the time.


Kansas State 10/3 at Arrowhead in KC:

The Arrowhead crowd will likely be 50/50 so it will be a completely neutral game. *Should make for a great tailgating atmosphere. Hopefully I can make the trip down from Milwaukee!

Offense:
K-State loses Freeman at QB and 3 key linemen after that. Notably, the man beast Alesana Alesana the Maori tribesman that eats pieces of $^@! like you for breakfast! (hopefully you catch my sarcasm) Otherwise the main components of the offense remain in tact. (Namely the 4’5” 122lb jitterbug with wheels for feet in Brandon Banks) Offensively they will have a very solid receiving corps but the question will be; can the QB get them the ball? Good thing for us is that we catch them early in the season, in their first Big 12 test.

Defense:
All but 2 components of this daunting unit return, according to rivals. Ian Knight the paper tiger is gone too so that will be a slight hit in productivity for the D. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that the scat cats gave up 339 points in Big 12 play last year for an avg. of just over 42 ppg. (We gave up 334 for just under 42………..woohoo!) For the sake of Snyder’s health, that number has to improve.

I see this as a huge opportunity and juncture in the season, much more so than any old regular game. Win here and squeezing another Big 12 win or two seems much more possible, lose and it’s only tougher sledding from here.

I’m going to pick a loss, solely because they return a solid stable of receivers and playmakers and I’m leery of our D being able to keep up. From 8 months out it’s a toss-up but I’ll call it K-State due to my pessimistic tendencies. Hard fought, but we lose in the 7-10 point range. (No real good explanation, I’m just not feeling a W here)

Loss

@ KU/boylovers 10/10

I wish I had a rosy analysis for this one but I think we’re going to get a good ol’ fashioned dirt nap.

Offense:
KU loses 3 interior linemen and one overrated oft-injured turd of a WR in Dexton Fields (He was my 1st WR pick in Big12 fantasy fb so I’m a little bitter)

Otherwise they are ridiculously stacked. The interior lineman can be replaced. A Todd Reesing and Desmond Briscoe cannot, and fortunately for the Blue Turds that’s not an issue. They will put up numbers in bunches, so KSU’s nice WR corp will be a great test prior to this game but I don’t think it will help enough.

Defense:
This is where KU will take its biggest hit and truly struggle in 2009. They lose two DE’s and all 3 LB’s that have been the stalwarts and building blocks of KU success over the past few years. If we can get a good mix of attacking passes and off-tackle runs right at the weakness of the D we should be able to put up points. Will it be enough remains the question?

Methinks not. I pick a loss.

Loss

Baylor (Homecoming) 10/17

Hmmm…….where to go from here? After a 3-1 start the Clones are facing a tough Big 12 season in front of them with a 0-2 record thus far.

Next up the uber talented Robert Griffin and his team of secondary Texas-high school talent. (for all you recruiting strategists out there, this is a true test of who’s better? 2nd class Texas kids or 1st class Iowa kids………except we don’t have many Iowa kids anyway so never mind)

To be quite honest I know hardly anything about the Grizzlies so here’s my best guess:

Offense:
They lose the two bulldozer tackles that kept the mad gazelle Griffin alive while he was running in uncontrollable and unexplainable patterns through defenses. That may be more of an impact than paper indicates. Otherwise return intact for the most part. I look for the offense to be improved with most of the specialists returning.

Defense:
Lose 3 senior starters, 2 on DL and 1 DB. Ummm…..that is all.

Baylor faces a treacherous non-conference schedule with bouts at Wake Forest and at home against UConn. They start Big 12 play against OU so we may have the luxury of facing a worn down squad on the road.

I think Rhoads puts a great game plan together to contain Griffindor and the Cyclones get there first Big 12 win!

Win

@Nebraska 10/24

On paper not going to be close, look closer and we may have a slight chance.

Offense:
Lose QB Ganz, RB Lucky, 2 white receivers named Todd and Nate, and one big Murtha trucka at tackle.

Besides ending the tradition of using annoying and over productive white boy wideouts, losing Ganz will hurt far more than the Bugeaters are willing to admit. Imo- he was a very underappreciated and unsung hero of the offense last year. The dude could ball.
Losing Lucky hurts but is balanced with Helu Jr. and Castille who were both used about as much last year. The offense will take a dramatic step back this year. The Big Red can kiss that 35 ppg conf. avg. good bye.

Blackshirts…..(hehe, chuckle, chuckle…..oh, what’s that?...oh they really mean it now):

Lose Zach Potter and Ty Steinkenkukenmulker on the DL. I think Murillo is gone from the backfield too. I don’t know enough about these guys to pass judgment but they return 7-8 starters so I expect them to be the strength of the team this year. They will backfill the D-Line spots with some other cornfed monsters and tag team the opposing beefeaters with captured Skull Island escapee King Kong Suh.

Despite a less than stellar NU offense, I think playing in Lincoln will be too much to handle and we lose by two touchdowns to 17 points.

Loss

So in recap:

@ K-State - Loss
@ KU - Loss
@ Baylor - Win
@ NU - Loss

Which brings us to 4-4 for the season and 1-3 in Big 12 play.

Stay tuned for the second half. Thoughts?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by delt4cy

Which brings us to 3-4 for the season and 1-3 in Big 12 play.

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4-4???

IMO, if we can't beat KSU, we won't beat Baylor. KSU is/should be the worst team in the Big 12.

If your non conference breaks the way you think it will you should crush KSU. Does anyone know what kind of a staff Snyder put together in Manhattan?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spudhawk

If your non conference breaks the way you think it will you should crush KSU. Does anyone know what kind of a staff Snyder put together in Manhattan?

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He took the OC from Utah I know, brought in some of his old staff as well

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stewo

IMO, if we can't beat KSU, we won't beat Baylor. KSU is/should be the worst team in the Big 12.

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I definitely see that- You could definitely switch the Baylor W and Kstate L around.

I do think K-State or Baylor are our best chances to get a conf. win this year with Colorado close after. Other than that, it could get dicey, but it's to be expected. Player development and smart decision making by the coaches with the tools we have is all I want to see this fall. W's will be icing on the cake.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spudhawk

If your non conference breaks the way you think it will you should crush KSU. Does anyone know what kind of a staff Snyder put together in Manhattan?

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Snyder is a sly ol' witch doctor though.

I'm hoping the game has passed him by and while I don't hope for Kstate disaster, the worse they are the better chance we have to climb back up the ladder in the Big12 north. It seems like we cross recruiting paths with Kstate and KU the most out of any other Big 12 teams. (Now KU disaster is something I do hope for)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by delt4cy

I definitely see that- You could definitely switch the Baylor W and Kstate L around.

I do think K-State or Baylor are our best chances to get a conf. win this year with Colorado close after. Other than that, it could get dicey, but it's to be expected. Player development and smart decision making by the coaches with the tools we have is all I want to see this fall. W's will be icing on the cake.

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I think that Colorado is a more likely win than Baylor. As much as I hate to think we'll have a 3 game losing streak to them (including 2 at home), I think we will. They absolutely took us to the woodshed last year. I think being at home gives a solid fighting chance, and it will be a close game, but we come out on the wrong end. On the other hand, I think the loss at CU really stung these guys, and they'll be ready to return the favor.

We absolutely need to beat KSU. They are nothing without Freeman....I hope.