our record vs expectation

When we were predicting a win loss record before the season started, some of us were rational and thought that we would win 2 out of 4 games in September. We exceeded expectation and won one more. We are victorious in September. That gives us an opportunity to be optimistic and win 3 out of the remaining 8 games to be bowl eligible

In October we have some winnable games. Kansas State and Baylor will give us a tough matchup in order for them to avoid the big XII cellar. However, we should be favored to win in both of these games. We have home field advantage (or semi home field), plus our defense actually shows up to play this season and we have an offense that can run the football which would open up opportunities for long pass plays from Arnaud. I think winning at least these 2 out of 5 games in October is not only a prediction, it really should be the goal for CPR.

The month of November we host Colorado, need I say more? We should expect to see us winning this one game out of the 3 games in November.

So 3+2+1 should give us 6 :)

In short, our 3-1 record exceeded espectation in my opinion. There were many positives than negatives about the growth of the team. Who would have thought we would have a running attack as well as a solid defense against a rushing team? Who would have thought we would have a solid kicking game? Granted our offense is showing no sign of improvement in our Junior quarterback, keep in mind this is a new system they are running and it will take time.

If I were to bet based on our record, we should expect 6 wins this season.
It is important for a good foundation of our football program that we took advantage of this year's schedule, which is comparatively weaker than next 2 years. I say we dive in it and steal a bowl game this season!!! Should that be our expection? Why not?

If our offense doesn't come alive then I could see us winning only1-2 more games. If it DOES start working and people stay healthy then 6-7 is a possibility.

Defense must continue to not be a liability and offense must wake up. Otherwise we win just 1, maybe 2 more.

Better offense and defense keeping things in front of them we could do better. But I'll reserve judgment until at least after this weekend. Conference games are far different than Army.

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Originally Posted by ISUFan22

Defense must continue to not be a liability and offense must wake up. Otherwise we win just 1, maybe 2 more.

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x 2

I foolishly predicted 3 wins before the season (although in my defense I couldn't have predicted the Griffin injury, or that Colorado would be so horrible)

Now I think five wins would actually be a disappointment. That is unfair to the ISU team and coaching staff but their play has raised the expectations.

[QUOTE=clonomaniac;1269496]When we were predicting a win loss record before the season started, some of us were rational and thought that we would win 2 out of 4 games in September. We exceeded expectation and won one more. We are victorious in September. That gives us an opportunity to be optimistic and win 3 out of the remaining 8 games to be bowl eligible

I predicted we'd go 5-0 to start and struggle to get to a sixth win. How was this an irrational prediction?

If you've been an ISU fan for the last ten years you should know that the Iowa/ISU game has nothing to do with won/loss records, pre-season rank or talent level and that typically, if at JTS, ISU wins.

As the season has progressed I now see two more games as more winnable than I initially thought; BU & CU.

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Originally Posted by Clark

I foolishly predicted 3 wins before the season (although in my defense I couldn't have predicted the Griffin injury, or that Colorado would be so horrible)

Now I think five wins would actually be a disappointment. That is unfair to the ISU team and coaching staff but their play has raised the expectations.

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That actually means that it is entirely fair to have higher expectations. It's based on the reality of their improved performance.

I predicted 3+ wins by this point of the season, but Kool-Aid Man and I are good friends.

I predicted 4 wins, thinking we'd probably go 3-1 at this point. However, I didn't think it would be this good of a 3-1. By that, I expected greater struggles against NDSU, Army, and Kent. I also underestimated Iowa (or how bad their opponents would play against them. not sure which it is). I assumed we would have to really gut out close victories against Kent and Army, not the romps they turned out to be. At this point, w/the Griffin injury I would be disappointed with less than 6, but far from surprised.

I had us 3-1 at this point but losing the Kent St. game. I like where the Clones are at right now.....we have some good momentum. But these wins mean nothing if we can't beat K-State this weekend. Frankly, I am worried about this game.....it is going to be a close one. The offense must pick it up....and the D needs to keep it up for us to even have a chance. A win in KC against a Big 12 opponet will get this team up for everyone.....and hopefully around the 6-7 win season is possible since BU, CU are down as well.

Again, we must win this game in KC for the pieces to fall into place.

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Originally Posted by Al_4_State

I predicted 4 wins, thinking we'd probably go 3-1 at this point. However, I didn't think it would be this good of a 3-1. By that, I expected greater struggles against NDSU, Army, and Kent. I also underestimated Iowa (or how bad their opponents would play against them. not sure which it is). I assumed we would have to really gut out close victories against Kent and Army, not the romps they turned out to be. At this point, w/the Griffin injury I would be disappointed with less than 6, but far from surprised.

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Hold up. We did struggle with NDSU and Kent State. We also struggled with Army until the 3rd quarter. The game really was not put away until the 4th. Now getting that road win was nice, but lets face the fact it was against a horrid Kent State team (minus their star player that gashed us before).

Lets slow the roll a little bit here and be realistic. This is not a good 3-1...it's a lot close to an average 3-1.

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Originally Posted by CycloneErik

That actually means that it is entirely fair to have higher expectations. It's based on the reality of their improved performance.

I predicted 3+ wins by this point of the season, but Kool-Aid Man and I are good friends.

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I guess that's true, but it's hard for me to get past the fact that if they won 5 games this year it would equal their win total from the previous two years combined...and it would feel like a disappointment. Maybe that's a good thing for the program.

Prior to the season, I thought we'd be 3-1 with a loss to Iowa. We played better than I expected against Kent and Army, and much worse than expected against Iowa.

I agree with those who are uneasy about the K-State game. I don't think our offense is where it needs to be to win this game. If our defense can continue to surprise, then we'll have a chance to win. If not, I don't think we can win a shootout.

Hopefully the offense will be humming along by mid-October when Baylor comes to town, as I see them and CU as the other toss-ups on the remaining schedule. I think we'll win 2 games out of the K-State, BU, CU slate.

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Originally Posted by ISUFan22

Hold up. We did struggle with NDSU and Kent State. We also struggled with Army until the 3rd quarter. The game really was not put away until the 4th. Now getting that road win was nice, but lets face the fact it was against a horrid Kent State team (minus their star player that gashed us before).

Lets slow the roll a little bit here and be realistic. This is not a good 3-1...it's a lot close to an average 3-1.

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Originally Posted by Clark

I guess that's true, but it's hard for me to get past the fact that if they won 5 games this year it would equal their win total from the previous two years combined...and it would feel like a disappointment. Maybe that's a good thing for the program.

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I agree with what's been said here as well. Right now, it doesn't really matter whether it's an outstanding (not really) 3-1, a poor (not) 3-1, or an average 3-1. Right now, 3-1 raises hopes and expectations, partially because we are all quite aware of where we've been.

I absolutely think at this point that we eclipse the Chizik win total for both of his years. We all know that an expectation of 5-6 wins is way less than impressive at many schools, but with our past few years, it's a giant leap forward.

The team has the look of a team that won't just fold up and collapse during games like last year. I'm not jumping up and down saying that we run the table, or that I somehow think that I can guarantee a win over a ranked team or a win in Lincoln or anything, but I think that raised expectations based on solid defense and good special teams play is very fair.

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Originally Posted by CycloneErik

The team has the look of a team that won't just fold up and collapse during games like last year.

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Potentially. But it remains to be seen.

If this is true, it would be the single best, most important improvement in ISU football history. Because we have always done that at one time or another, in almost every single season. The going gets tough and, poof, we disappear. Adversity is our kryptonite.

So, lets say we have a poor start and we're done 14-0 right away this weekend. That's the team I want to see, as far as how they respond. And those type of situations are what define a team/coach/program. We all know in all but a couple instances how it's defined us to date.

Paul Rhoads can find away to exterminate that behavior from this team, and from this program, he is a master.

I think the one thing that makes me more optomistic about the passing offense is that all of the issues seem to be timing related. If we weren't producing because we didn't have enough talent on the field, I would be more worried. The offensive line has also been doing more than their fair share so far. That is awesome.
As many have said before, the passing offense just needs to get in sync. Then, combined with a solid rushing game, the offensive production could really take off. Combine that with the servicable defense we have seen so far, and I like where this team is going.