Baylor must not be very good against the run

[CyCloned]

I see the same stats you guys do, but Baylor's defense still scares me. They have a HUGE D-line (355, 310, 270 and 260lbs). They also have 9 seniors on defense, so they are experienced. Without really seeing them play, I have no idea what they will bring. I don't see this being a blowout at all, unless you count a 10 point win as a blowout?

Not getting pressure on their young QB worries me. If he has time to get the ball to Gettis or Wright, we could be in trouble.

If ARob plays the whole game, we win 30-21. If ARob plays 1/2 the game, I'll say we win 24-21.

ISU has a lot of experience on defense also, but I don't think anyone is too worried about it. Maybe they are better than they played against Kent State, but Kent state was horrible on the ground when ISU played them.

[iconoclast1]

Just punish them up front and hope our D can handle what might be the worst (at least rustiest) QB tandem in the Big 12 right, Hawkins/Hansen aside.

First "Go Gem'em" and now "Big 12 right."

Is that a new division?

[dtclones]

Yeah, I guess only one goal line fumble, but another one in that game on the Baylor 19, close enough. And yes the running all over them comment must of been from a different game...

[bearfan08]

Kent State just lost Jarvis when you played against them so they hadn't figured out the running game without him. They got their crap together for the Baylor game, plus that was a littlebit of a letdown game for Baylor because that was the week we found out RG3 was gone for the year, our 2nd string QB was out for at least that week, our 1st string RB was out for that game and might not be back against OU. That was a game with all the adversity were Baylor could have rolled over and gave up, but they didn't. They still didn't play good, but they played good enough to win. Our D kept OU out of the endzone 4 trips into the redzone forcing them to kick field goals, and it would have been 6 trips if not for 2 questionable roughing the passer penalties in the first half (1 on 4th down and 1 on 3rd down).

[CarolinaCy]

ISU has a lot of experience on defense also, but I don't think anyone is too worried about it. Maybe they are better than they played against Kent State, but Kent state was horrible on the ground when ISU played them.

Baylor is giving up 4.08 ypc on the season, good for 9th in the Big 12. ISU is 8th at 3.97 ypc. Not really a huge difference there. Murray and Brown of OU (both very good backs) combined for 181 yards, but it took them 43 carries to do so (4.2 ypc).

So while I'd like to think we'll run all over Baylor and win going away, my head tells me that this will be a much tougher game than most think.

[Bear1979]

Kent State gained 165 yards on 25 carries and that included the QB going 3 carries for -1 yards. That is 6.6 ypc. Kent state got 47 yards in 32 carries against Iowa State.

Iowa State must not be very good against the run. NDST gained 210 yards on 38 carries and that included the QB going 11 carries for 4 yards. That is 7.6 ypc. The D-II school Baylor played was absolutely ANNIALATED.

Next?

[Bader]

Iowa State must not be very good against the run. NDST gained 210 yards on 38 carries and that included the QB going 11 carries for 4 yards. That is 7.6 ypc. The D-II school Baylor played was absolutely ANNIALATED.

Next?

Against our common opponent, we held Kent State to 1.5 ypc and Baylor yielded 6.6

I don't care how much Kent State "figured out" how to run without Jarvis, they're still a bad football team, and that difference shouldn't be ignored.

Also, you guys played a D-II school? Wow, didn't know you could do that

[jdoggivjc]

Kent State just lost Jarvis when you played against them so they hadn't figured out the running game without him. They got their crap together for the Baylor game, plus that was a littlebit of a letdown game for Baylor because that was the week we found out RG3 was gone for the year, our 2nd string QB was out for at least that week, our 1st string RB was out for that game and might not be back against OU. That was a game with all the adversity were Baylor could have rolled over and gave up, but they didn't. They still didn't play good, but they played good enough to win. Our D kept OU out of the endzone 4 trips into the redzone forcing them to kick field goals, and it would have been 6 trips if not for 2 questionable roughing the passer penalties in the first half (1 on 4th down and 1 on 3rd down).

Iowa State must not be very good against the run. NDST gained 210 yards on 38 carries and that included the QB going 11 carries for 4 yards. That is 7.6 ypc. The D-II school Baylor played was absolutely ANNIALATED.

Next?

Hell, if you want to make those arguments, ISU had to face their FCS team in week one when they were still learning their new offensive and defensive schemes, while Baylor didn't have to face their "D-II" team until week three when they had more time to shake off their offseason rust. Not only that, but we played Iowa the week after, so our heads weren't completely into that game.

See, anyone can come up with "lame-***" excuses for performance. But the stats say that ISU is the best in the Big 12 at running the ball, and Baylor doesn't stop the run very well at all.

As Bear1979 said so eloquently before me, "Next?"

[Al_4_State]

First "Go Gem'em" and now "Big 12 right."

Is that a new division?

I meant the Big 12 right now. Forgot the "now".

[GeronimusClone]

I meant the Big 12 right now. Forgot the "now".

Way to go, *******.

[clone99]

[QUOTE=Bear1979;1297506]Iowa State must not be very good against the run. NDST gained 210 yards on 38 carries and that included the QB going 11 carries for 4 yards. That is 7.6 ypc. The D-II school Baylor played was absolutely ANNIALATED.

Next?[/QUOTE]

Baylor O is avg 158 yds/game, D giving up 171 yds/ game
ISU O is avg. 209 yds/ game, D giving up 149 yds/game

So I would probably be more worried about our rushing Offense than than we are about yours. And that may be important when it is 37 degrees by the end of the game.

[jaretac]

Because two teams never play the same schedule and different opponents have different strengths and weaknesses, I like to look at how a team is doing compared their opponents average instead of just comparing total yards.

Note: negitive numbers are good, positive numbers are bad.

Defense

Baylor's run defense....171.20
Opp's run offense.......155.19
Difference..............+16.01

ISU's run defense.......149.50
Opp's run offense.......181.06
Difference..............-31.60

Baylor's pass defense....210.6
Opp's pass offense.......211.6
Difference...............-1.00

ISU's pass defense.......241.00
Opp's pass offense.......198.00
Difference...............+43.00

Baylor total defense.....381.80
Opp's total offense......366.79
Difference...............+15.01

ISU total defense........390.50
Opp's total offense......379.06
Difference...............+11.44

Summery: ISU is better against the run, Baylor better against the pass, ISU is better overall.

Note: positive numbers are good, negitive numbers are bad

Offense
Baylor's run offense....158.20
Opp's run defense.......119.37
Difference..............+38.83

ISU's run offense.......209.50
Opp's run defense.......128.33
Difference..............+81.17

Baylor's pass offense....210.00
Opp's pass defense.......226.25
Difference...............-16.25

ISU's pass offense.......191.87
Opp's pass defense.......224.99
Difference...............-33.12

Baylor total offense.....368.20
Opp's total defense......345.62
Difference...............+22.58

ISU total offense........401.37
Opp's total defense......353.32
Difference...............+48.05

Summery: ISU is better running, Baylor better passing, ISU is better overall.

[CarolinaCy]

IMO, yards per game isn't nearly as significant as yards per carry. There's too many things that factor into yards per game for it to be the sole criterion on which to judge a defense.

For example, Army gained 195 yards on the ground against ISU. Meanwhile, KU gained only 122 yards rushing against us. Just by looking at that, one would guess that our run defense played much better against KU than Army. However, Army's yards came on 48 carries (4.06 ypc) and KU's came on 31 carries (3.94 ypc).

As I mentioned before, Baylor's D is giving up 4.08 ypc on the season, while ISU is giving up 3.97 (difference of 0.11 ypc). I wouldn't say that their run defense is much worse than ours at this point.

[CyCloned]

IMO, yards per game isn't nearly as significant as yards per carry. There's too many things that factor into yards per game for it to be the sole criterion on which to judge a defense.

For example, Army gained 195 yards on the ground against ISU. Meanwhile, KU gained only 122 yards rushing against us. Just by looking at that, one would guess that our run defense played much better against KU than Army. However, Army's yards came on 48 carries (4.06 ypc) and KU's came on 31 carries (3.94 ypc).

As I mentioned before, Baylor's D is giving up 4.08 ypc on the season, while ISU is giving up 3.97 (difference of 0.11 ypc). I wouldn't say that their run defense is much worse than ours at this point.

The other factor is that ISU has played more teams that are wanting to run the ball. Iowa, NDSU, KSU and Army are very run heavy teams. Kent State does not run as much as they did before they lost Jarvis, but they still run a fair amount.

OU, at this point in the season, has not run the ball very well, at least as well as they are use to. I remember them turning the ball over trying to pass it in from the 2 on BYU, after they were stuffed on their first two plays.

[bearfan08]

Hell, if you want to make those arguments, ISU had to face their FCS team in week one when they were still learning their new offensive and defensive schemes, while Baylor didn't have to face their "D-II" team until week three when they had more time to shake off their offseason rust. Not only that, but we played Iowa the week after, so our heads weren't completely into that game.

See, anyone can come up with "lame-***" excuses for performance. But the stats say that ISU is the best in the Big 12 at running the ball, and Baylor doesn't stop the run very well at all.

As Bear1979 said so eloquently before me, "Next?"

So you are saying losing 4 starters, your QB who was deemed the savior of the program, and other factors all in the same week does not lend itself to a letdown game? YPC is the key as the above poster pointed out. We have faced teams that have a higher percentage of their plays that are runs. That is the case for Uconn, Wake, and Northwest LST. OU ran the ball 44 times or so and had 99 total plays. I think Kent St was balanced running vs passing with a slight edge to passing.

Oh and I want to let you in on a little secret, until the last game Baylor was #2 in the nation in YPA, and now we are tied with ISU (we are both #10 in the nation with a couple other teams) at 5.2 YPA even after a 6 yard outing against OU last week. You may have the best running game in the big 12 as far as YPG, but Baylor is just as effective running the ball as you are.