Sporting News: Clones taking 5th in the North

[Ace000087]

2008: 17- 5 Iowa
2006: 27-17 Iowa
2004: 17-10 Iowa

All hard fought games that could have gone either way deep into the 4th quarter. But still a bit of a misleading statement.

Was just talking to a buddy about this earlier today... last years game was the first ISU/Iowa game in a while that WASN'T close. Generally its a fun game to watch.

[UNIGuy4Cy]

Ha, sorry, guess I'm just a ****** ISU fan and want us to lose every game.

Did not say you, but you know the ISU fans I am referring to.

[CrossCyed]

can i ask what he said that was off base or unrealistic?

The games that we "should" win.

I have read your posts before and you provide good posts. This is another one, but ISU did finish 30th in scoring defense, miles ahead of 2007 and 2008. Plus these guys did not fit the schemes, ISU wants to run a 4-2-5, we had to run a 4-3 last year with the lack of speed on the edges, this will change this year with Klein and Knott. People need to realize what CPR did last year with the talent he was provided, took a team with a 3rd coaching staff in 4 years and won more games in one year than Chizik did in 2, with the starting QB and RB down for the second half of the season.

The teams we beat last year sucked donkey balls with the exception of Nebraska:

NDSU (3-8 - FCS)
Kent St (5-7)
Army (5-7)
Baylor (4-8)
Nebraska (10-4)
Colorado (3-9)
Minnesota (6-7)

Sure, part of it is beating the teams you're supposed to. But we're replacing NDSU with UNI, Kent State with Northern Illinois, Army with Utah, and the 3 worst South teams with the 3 best. Our win over Colorado goes back to Boulder, where it is tough for us to win.

I'm not saying we can't win these games, but I don't understand why people think we were all that good last year. We were much improved. But we improved from suck to mediocre/average.

The teams that we beat had 28 combined wins over D1 schools (4 per team) and 15 over BCS schools (just over 2 per team). The 6 schools not named Nebraska had 19 wins over D1 schools (just over 3 per team) and 8 wins over BCS schools (just over 1 per team).

[Swanson10]

Did not say you, but you know the ISU fans I am referring to.

I am just glad, like this guy, I am not the only that thinks some ISU fans expect to lose. That kind of thinking has put us where we are today, but hopefully won't continue and we can grow something out of what is happening.

[UNIGuy4Cy]

The games that we "should" win.



The teams we beat last year sucked donkey balls with the exception of Nebraska:

NDSU (3-8 - FCS)
Kent St (5-7)
Army (5-7)
Baylor (4-8)
Nebraska (10-4)
Colorado (3-9)
Minnesota (6-7)

Sure, part of it is beating the teams you're supposed to. But we're replacing NDSU with UNI, Kent State with Northern Illinois, Army with Utah, and the 3 worst South teams with the 3 best. Our win over Colorado goes back to Boulder, where it is tough for us to win.

I'm not saying we can't win these games, but I don't understand why people think we were all that good last year. We were much improved. But we improved from suck to mediocre/average.

True, but we had the same team and schedule in 2008 (except opposite home and aways of course) and we all know how that turned out.

[CrossCyed]

True, but we had the same team and schedule in 2008 (except opposite home and aways of course) and we all know how that turned out.

And I agree we dramatically improved.

But 2010 is a completely different schedule. And I think a 5-7 record, which is what I think is realistic and probable would show improvement, just not in the win loss department.

[UNIGuy4Cy]

And I agree we dramatically improved.

But 2010 is a completely different schedule. And I think a 5-7 record, which is what I think is realistic and probable would show improvement, just not in the win loss department.

I agree, there are some tough games, but I know Rhoads will have the guys ready to go and the reason I say this is because he has surrounded himself with guys that know how to succeed, sitting here today, I believe this team can reach 8-4 +/- 1. And I will say too, this team will suprise some, just like ISU did against OU three years ago. I just really wish people would forget the disgrace known as the Gene Chizik era.

[CrossCyed]

I agree, there are some tough games, but I know Rhoads will have the guys ready to go and the reason I say this is because he has surrounded himself with guys that know how to succeed, sitting here today, I believe this team can reach 8-4 +/- 1. And I will say too, this team will suprise some, just like ISU did against OU three years ago. I just really wish people would forget the disgrace known as the Gene Chizik era.

I just still think they're going to need to dramatically improve from what they were, not counting the fact that our defensive line will have to improve MASSIVELY to keep teams from just lining up and running it down our throats or sitting all day in the pocket.

[dualthreat]

rony nelson needs to step in and be a player on the DL

[cyclones500]

Fifth seems dismissively harsh, but not horribly out of line.

I compiled an extremely early Big 12 forecast three weeks ago. I went through all the XII schedules game by game to take into account out-of-division schedule rotation and game sites.

My North:

Nebraska 7-1 11-1
Missouri 6-2 10-2
Kansas State 3-5 6-6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7
Kansas 1-7 4-8
Colorado 1-7 3-9

(I had ISU beating KSU but put us fourth because of overall record).

[ShopTalk]

Fifth seems dismissively harsh, but not horribly out of line.

My North:

Nebraska 7-1 11-1
Missouri 6-2 10-2
Kansas State 3-5 6-6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7
Kansas 1-7 4-8
Colorado 1-7 3-9

I think the consensus mean expectation of ISU FB fans for 2010 is 5-7 with +1 or -2 or a mis-shaped bell curve range of 3-9 (Sporting News) to 6-6.

The cautious optimism or hope of ISU fans is for ISU to outperform expectations again like they did last year. IIRC, 2009 pre-season expectations were for 4-8 +/-1, so 6-6 was +2 above the mean.

Therefore, a realistic 2010 exceeding expectation record would be 7-5. UNIGuy, this is an engineering and agriculture school, so you've got to go with the statistical flow my man and chill. Hopes are high, but statistics temper them at a math-based school.

I also think the consensus view here is that Coach Rhoads and his excellent staff will take this team to new heights, but statistics temper that as a few years out yet.

I think all ISU fans are pleasantly pleased and excited for the future as you clearly are, but ISU is about math and agriculture - both disciplines that take time AND competence to yield the desired results.

A little luck certainly helps, which is of course non-statistical and where we love to pontificate all day long like a typical farmer bragging about how he's going to out-do his neighbors doing exactly the same thing as his neighbors because he's more lucky.

[Ace000087]

I think the consensus mean expectation of ISU FB fans for 2010 is 5-7 with +1 or -2 or a mis-shaped bell curve range of 3-9 (Sporting News) to 6-6.

The cautious optimism or hope of ISU fans is for ISU to outperform expectations again like they did last year. IIRC, 2009 pre-season expectations were for 4-8 +/-1, so 6-6 was +2 above the mean.

Therefore, a realistic 2010 exceeding expectation record would be 7-5. UNIGuy, this is an engineering and agriculture school, so you've got to go with the statistical flow my man and chill. Hopes are high, but statistics temper them at a math-based school.

I also think the consensus view here is that Coach Rhoads and his excellent staff will take this team to new heights, but statistics temper that as a few years out yet.

I think all ISU fans are pleasantly pleased and excited for the future as you clearly are, but ISU is about math and agriculture - both disciplines that take time AND competence to yield the desired results.

A little luck certainly helps, which is of course non-statistical and where we love to pontificate all day long like a typical farmer bragging about how he's going to out-do his neighbors doing exactly the same thing as his neighbors because he's more lucky.

MATH STATISTICS FARMING LOUD NOISES.

[Al_4_State]

The games that we "should" win.



The teams we beat last year sucked donkey balls with the exception of Nebraska:

NDSU (3-8 - FCS)
Kent St (5-7)
Army (5-7)
Baylor (4-8)
Nebraska (10-4)
Colorado (3-9)
Minnesota (6-7)

Sure, part of it is beating the teams you're supposed to. But we're replacing NDSU with UNI, Kent State with Northern Illinois, Army with Utah, and the 3 worst South teams with the 3 best. Our win over Colorado goes back to Boulder, where it is tough for us to win.

I'm not saying we can't win these games, but I don't understand why people think we were all that good last year. We were much improved. But we improved from suck to mediocre/average.

The teams that we beat had 28 combined wins over D1 schools (4 per team) and 15 over BCS schools (just over 2 per team). The 6 schools not named Nebraska had 19 wins over D1 schools (just over 3 per team) and 8 wins over BCS schools (just over 1 per team).

I'm not convinced that Tech is going to be the 3rd best team in the South next year.

And I think a 5-7 record, which is what I think is realistic and probable would show improvement, just not in the win loss department.

I'm not sure that 5-7 shows improvement. It's realistic and probable, but we can acheive that record by beating NIU, UNI, KSU, KU, and CU. Those are all teams that are either FCS, or very possible to not achieve a winning record. In other words, they're games that we SHOULD win. In order to actually improve as a team, we're going to need to win a game that we really shouldn't win, if not two of those. Nebraska last year was not a game we should have won, but we did.

I'm not going to be upset at a 5 win season, but if it comes the way I just called it to come, then I don't personally see how that's improving, unless we somehow stay really close in all 7 of the losses.

[garn91]

I'm not convinced that Tech is going to be the 3rd best team in the South next year.

If anything, I think Tech has the potential to be better than what they were with Leach. Tuberville is taking a hands off approach, brining in Troy's OC (name escapes me, but he's a spread wizard as well as Kliff Kingsbury as Assistant OC and QB's coach).

Tuberville is a defensive coach and has bought in Alabama's linebacker's coach as DC. If Tech can ever develop a defense, Tuberville has the chance to be very successful at TT.

[weR138]

[quote=ShopTalk;1733017]I think the consensus mean expectation of ISU FB fans for 2010 is 5-7 with +1 or -2 or a mis-shaped bell curve range of 3-9 (Sporting News) to 6-6.

QUOTE]

You're exactly right.

I'm not convinced that Tech is going to be the 3rd best team in the South next year.

+1. I think the Baylor/Tech game will decide sixth place in the South.