This is obviously all purely speculation based on everyone else's speculation, but from what I gather, if the Big 10 lands ND, they are done with expansion because that's who they really want out of all of this (and are using the superconference to force ND's hand because superconferences would pretty much make ND irrelevant). If the Big 10 is perfectly happy with ND making 12, neither Nebraska nor Missouri are getting Big 10 invites, which means the Big 12 stays in tact, well, maybe with the exception of Colorado, who has been rumored to want to go to the Pac-10 as badly and for as long as Missouri has wanted to go to the Big 10. But I just don't see Texas blowing up their gravy train to share power in the Pac-10, and I don't see the south teams jumping if Texas doesn't jump first.
Per Chip Brown, the original author of the OrangeBloods story:
Texas does NOT want the Big XII to break up, but if Nebraska jumps ship all bets are off.
Based on his sources here are the two most likely scenarios.
- IF Notre Dame agrees to join the Big 10 (which sounds like a coin flip at this point) the Big 10 will stop expansion at 12 and the door will be closed on Nebraska.
- In this case Texas will resist the Pac 10 proposal and the Big 12 will carry on.
- If ND does not accept then the Big 10 will likely offer Nebraska and the thought is Nebraska will jump all over it.
- In this case Texas will agree to join the Pac 10 and the other 5 will follow.
Like I've been saying for a while now, it doesn't make sense for Texas to jump. They already make more than almost any other school for athletics. If anything, they should want us to try to pick up a few schools in other states with big populations and make the Big XII the Big XVI. Especially if these schools can form some sort of a research consortium that has an edge in alternative fuels or something similar with a potential for LOTS of research dollars. OF course, this is assuming Beebe has any thread of competence...
As a Cyclone fan living in Husker country forever, there is one thing I know. TO will be "all in" no matter which direction he takes. He will not commit to something and then back out if a better offer comes unless the conference dissolves and leaves him no choice. We all know that this decision is going to come down to money. Can Nebraska and Texas make more money long term staying in the Big XII or jumping to another conference?
According to an article I read on ESPN this morning, TO is saying that he is unaware of a deadline of Friday from the Big XII. TO is smart enough to stay out of a situation where he will be the start of the dismantling of the Big XII.
Let the Cold War of college football continue to rage on.
I know that NU has alot of national cache. But as far as TV's go, the Omaha market is behind the DSM/Ames market. And Lincoln is quite a bit further down the list. How is that such a deal breaker for the Big XII?
Yeah, talk about wagging the dog in Scenario 2.
Besides their brand, and major market TV sets, the next most value Texas holds is their high school football recruits. Why would they want to open them up to Arizona and So Cal unless they absolutely had to? Why would a Nebraska decision sway that thinking?
Another thing not really mentioned in the poker hand analogy is even if Nebraska had a winning hand, the Pac 10 basically just showed it to the other players. With the Pac 10 invites to the Texas schools, why would the Big 10 be in a hurry to invite Nebraska or Missouri to their party. The Big 10 now has the bargaining power because they know those two schools could potentially be between a rock and a hard place. That is an aspect of this you won't hear Perrault or Nebraska fan talk about.
I believe that Mizzou and Nebraska hold the cards. Texas likes the Big12 because they receive the most money each year and are going to have success in football. They will not go to the SEC, but are open to the Pac-10 if Mizzou or Nebraska leave. They would also like to have their own TV network which would probably not be possible if they moved to another conference. A lot of Aggies have no interest in going to the Pac-10, but don't really want to stay in the Big12. Most want to go to the SEC. I would say that its probably 65% that want the SEC and 35% that want the Pac-10. The Big12 TV contract is so bad that a lot of Aggies don't want to stay in the conference if there is another option. Baylor and Tech are trying to ride along with the 2 big schools by getting the legislature involved, and it is unknown if the Texas government would allow Texas and A&M to be in separate conferences.
I think for the majority of the Big12 North, the best case scenario is that Nebraska and Mizzou stay within the conference. If either of these leave, then Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and possibly Colorado get downgraded to lesser conferences when the South schools decide to leave for greener pastures.
As far as the conferences go, the Pac-10 has shown its hand and is all-in, while the Big 10 it betting but we don't know if they are bluffing or if they're ready to go all-in. The SEC is playing its cards close, and they could go all-in or fold at any moment.