CF Mafia Game #4 - INNOCENTS WIN!!

Kyle · 06-10-2008, 07:27 PM

Here's kind of a reasoned way to look at things. If I was better at statistics I could really figure out how this breaks down, but here it goes.

Without the detective, the aggressive strategy is the only way to go, because it maximizes the chances of having eliminated mafia members at any given point. Here's the reasoning: If the innocents don't eliminate anyone then every person eliminated will be an innocent (because they'll get whacked by the mafia). Therefore, no matter how many people are eliminated, there is 0% chance that any of them could have been mafia members. For example, if we get to the point where 6 players have been eliminated, and they have all been eliminated by the mafia, then it is guaranteed to be 7 innocents vs. 4 mafia members. But, if three of those players are eliminated by the innocents, then there is a decent chance (I can't calculate what it is) that one or more of the 6 dead people will be a mafia member.

The thing that makes this strategy less than automatic is the detective. The longer he is around the more information he is able to gain, which could potentially result in smarter votes by the innocents later on.

I'm not sure I want to rely on detective information to turn the tide for us this game though, and hence I think a more agressive strategy is warranted. While I don't have any greater suspicions than anyone else with regards to his mafia status, I think finding out his status could provide us with some information.

Flag Guy · 06-10-2008, 07:47 PM

Dunno if I fully support eliminating 62... though I do support elminating someone. Just got back from dinner with a new guy though so i'll need time to look through stuff

d4nim4l · 06-10-2008, 07:59 PM

Originally Posted by jdoggivjc

All I'm gonna say is inactivity/passivity by the townies has been the death of the townies the last two games.

Agreed. Best to switch up the good ole strategery.

I vote to eliminate Cyclone62

Kyle · 06-10-2008, 08:01 PM

Well, I too support eliminating someone, and 62 seems like an OK candidate. It will be ashame if we eliminate everyone that talks though, so I kind of want to eliminate some quiet people just because that way the game stays interesting. But, in the spirit of eliminating someone, I rescind my vote for CrunchD3, and vote to eliminate Cyclone62.

tim_redd · 06-10-2008, 08:03 PM

The more people post, the more I become suspicious of them. At the same time I feel we should be even more suspicious of those that aren't posting. However, that will have to wait until tomorrow. Cyclone62 has been pointing the finger and defending people in a way that I feel is trying to influence people's thoughts on him. Somehow he still managed to vote to lynch an innocent.

I vote to eliminate Cyclone62

Flag Guy · 06-10-2008, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by tim_redd

Was it a good lynching...because you're in the Mafia???

Or do you just like pitchforks and torches?

Dunno about the rest of you, but I personally like pitchforks and torches

As for productive thoughts... still re-reading but I remember wanting to comment on this earlier when I didn't have time

Cyano · 06-10-2008, 08:12 PM

I'm in agreement we can't sit back and wait for the mafia to hit. This is our chance to take one of them out and the late push to vote out BigM had me wondering as well, especially with the lack of evidence to change the vote from crunch to BigM. I agree there wasn't evidence against either of them, but we needed to go after someone. Crunch was going to get eliminated until others stepped in and saved him. Does anyone having anything to add before I agree in eliminating cyclone62 (not official).

Cyclone62 · 06-10-2008, 08:14 PM

Since it looks like this is turning sour for me, I'm going to dig up my reasoning on Dags. Otherwise we're making a mistake in getting rid of me as a talkative innocent. He led this charge so I'm going to preempt him tonight.

Originally Posted by coachdags

I'm not voting for CrunchD3, just because his 1st post (18 overall) was I'm keeping my head down......?

If I were to vote for anybody it would be for someone like Cyclone62, someone that is pointing fingers right away and I believe in the past the more aggressive players were the ones trying to fool us all......

That being said right now I would....

vote to not eliminate anyone

at least on day one, we can not afford to be down 2 on day 2.....?

You started this against me yesterday. Good for you in laying down the groundwork. Looks like everyone's buying it.

Originally Posted by coachdags

13 out of 17 is 76.8%

11 out of 17 is 63.7%

you guys do the math......I like our odds if we wake up tomorrow and...

12 out of 17 is 70.5%

I stay with my vote.......

I don't know what exactly you're getting at here, and it's annoying me. Why would the number of innocents continue to go down, but the pool of suspects remain the same? Faulty math.

Originally Posted by d4nim4l

Welp.

Sorry I didn't catch this sooner. But I'll be gunning for you late voters of BigM tomorrow.

PS - Doctor protect me.

Your gunning for people that voted off BigM because we had nothing to dissuade us. Yes, hindsight it was a poor move. Ultimately, the decision came down randomly. I didn't sway the vote completely (I evened up the tallies at the time) because I was on the fence between the two people on the block yesterday.

Originally Posted by coachdags

Yes, My guess is he lost a close friend......

I told you guys we would have been better off to try and gain more info......now down 2.

Do not trust Cyclone62 and CTA (gut feelings)..... CrunchD3 was just trying to save his own butt as there was already 1 vote for BigM when he voted for him.......

Kyle plays game as well as anybody and Flaguy is well..... Flaguy

Yup, don't trust me for some reason (that I'm innocent) yet continue to build that charge against me because I was on the fence between two people and I didn't want to sit idle.

Originally Posted by coachdags

If you guys want to get aggressive, lets do it......

I really think your wrong about CrunchD3...... (he is my son-1st time player, but who knows)
I vote to eliminate Cyclone62

The fact that this is seemingly your reason for putting me on the block, it appears your using emotion above logic and reason against me, or I struck a chord with you previous to this by saying that I was going to lead a charge against you if you gave me any more of a reason to.

Originally Posted by Kyle

Well, I too support eliminating someone, and 62 seems like an OK candidate. It will be ashame if we eliminate everyone that talks though, so I kind of want to eliminate some quiet people just because that way the game stays interesting. But, in the spirit of eliminating someone, I rescind my vote for CrunchD3, and vote to eliminate Cyclone62.

That's what the mafia wants to do, and Dags led that charge (wants to rid CTA and myself, while keeping players that are quiet and less likely to get on people's cases so we can get more information from them.)

I'm changing my vote. I vote to eliminate coachdags.

Well, that will likely be my last vote. Hope you guys don't eliminate all of the true innocents in the game like you're about to with me.

Flag Guy · 06-10-2008, 08:28 PM

I'm still not 100% on 62 but I would be pissed if we reverted to the strategy of the last few games.

I do think that the first vote for 62 is a crap reason and I have other reasons for not caring for Dags (in this game) but I do not think the tides will shift tonight, so that will be addressed later

Nothing personal but I vote to eliminate Cyclone62

Cyclone62 · 06-10-2008, 08:35 PM

Maybe people will look at that after they kill an innocent. (me)

isucyfan · 06-10-2008, 08:40 PM

It appears to me that either coachdags or Cyclone62 is mafia. Sucks that it's basically a guess, but there's a lot of smoke around Cyclone62. Plus, my gut tells me that coach and his son are innocents. I agree that the only game we have won has been where we played aggressively, therefore...

I vote to eliminate Cyclone62

Cyano · 06-10-2008, 08:57 PM

cyclone62...you make some good points as well, and if you are innocent I think it definitely points to coach. I'm going to go along with the lynching crew.

I vote to eliminate Cyclone62

Cyclone62 · 06-10-2008, 09:04 PM

Well, I hope you guys believe me at 830.

Cyclone62 · 06-10-2008, 09:05 PM

And good luck fellow innocents.

Cyclone62 signing out.

Flag Guy · 06-10-2008, 09:17 PM

Later man. Catch you on the flip side (Assuming I don't join you... after all it IS night 2...)