Autistic Teen has the perfect NCAA Bracket

**cyclonedave25** · 03-24-2010, 12:29 PM

Not sure if this has been posted already, but this is amazing!
So far, this 17 year old kid has picked every game correctly so far! Apparently the odds of picking the first two rounds exact is one in 13,460,000.
His bracket is on CBS' bracket challenge.
And for the record, he has UNI beating MSU, but losing to Tenn in the Elite 8.
Autistic teen picks perfect bracket - College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN

His Bracket:
http://media.nbcchicago.com/images/WinningBracket.jpg

**PGreen ISU '92** · 03-24-2010, 12:34 PM

Wow! That's amazing. Thanks for posting!

**Farnsworth** · 03-24-2010, 12:35 PM

I was just thinking his final 4 picks are a little crazy. then again what do i know, hes the expert

**cyclonedave25** · 03-24-2010, 12:37 PM

Originally Posted by Farnsworth

I was just thinking his final 4 picks are a little crazy. then again what do i know, hes the expert

Well, if I looked at some of the games he picked in the first two rounds before the tourney started, I would have thought he was crazy too.

**intrepid27** · 03-24-2010, 12:37 PM

As I type this post, there is a sportsbook entity in Vegas is trying to figure out how to tap into this kid's talent.

**ahaselhu** · 03-24-2010, 12:41 PM

I can see him being right the rest of the way, except for Purdue. I think it is extremely unlikely that they will beat both Duke and Kentucky. I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the final four though.

**nickwc** · 03-24-2010, 12:45 PM

yea purdue in the finals is the only one that seems off base, but this year, nothing would surprise me.

**khaal53** · 03-24-2010, 12:52 PM

I said this yesterday, but I like to repeat myself and enjoy reading my own posts a lot...I'm happy for the kid. It's awesome. But can we just call this what it really is? It's luck. If Jay Bilas did the same thing it would still be luck. If the most accurate bookie did this it would be luck. Just sayin'...

**azepp** · 03-24-2010, 12:54 PM

So I saw that the stats of calling the whole thing correctly were 1 in 35,360,000,000, but what are the odds of someone who has the sweet 16 correct making it the rest of the way? Any stats folks out there?

**DMjazz** · 03-24-2010, 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by ahaselhu

I can see him being right the rest of the way, except for Purdue. I think it is extremely unlikely that they will beat both Duke and Kentucky. I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the final four though.

Dan Patrick touched on this today. They mentioned that this kid picked Purdue because his older brother went there. Not sure if that is true but that was their take on it.

**Wesley** · 03-24-2010, 12:57 PM

What was point total for the final game?

**Wesley** · 03-24-2010, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by DMjazz

Dan Patrick touched on this today. They mentioned that this kid picked Purdue because his older brother went there. Not sure if that is true but that was their take on it.

The homer factor will bring ruination to his bracket!

**Ames** · 03-24-2010, 01:00 PM

I don't know about Purdue, but the rest of it is amazing.

**mred** · 03-24-2010, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by azepp

So I saw that the stats of calling the whole thing correctly were 1 in 35,360,000,000, but what are the odds of someone who has the sweet 16 correct making it the rest of the way? Any stats folks out there?

If everything is 50/50, the odds of a perfect bracket (not counting the play-in game) would be one in 2^63 = 9.2 quintillion. The 35 billion number you quote probably takes into account the fact that games are not 50/50, which is especially the case in the earlier rounds.

There are 15 games left. If they are 50/50, the odds of a perfect bracket given a perfect sweet 16 are 1 in 2^15 = 32768.