I’m not worried about WVU, I’m worried about how we will play on the road. We are way better than them but after blowing a 23 point lead to tech (still salty) on the road I have no confidence in this team yet
Anybody worried about Huggybear and WVU?
- Thread starter dafarmer
- Start date
I'm not expecting a win, but I won't be surprised. Feel like this squad is different.
You can make a case that we match up similarly and it should be a close game, but I've been down this road before. Things I don't know: have teams scored inside on WVU this year or are they weaker with perimeter defense? No question they will help off of Lipsey, this will be a game where ISU needs to have an answer for that.
I'm not sure that any outcome would be overly surprising. We're mirror images of each other in that we're both defensive-minded and somewhat unpredictable on offense. We have identical 3 pt percentages (35.1). We're 3rd and 4th in the conference in offensive rebounds, yet we're 9th and 10th in defensive rebounding teams, which is a weird stat.
The biggest difference: WVU is first in FT attempts, we are last. Of course, we are also last in FT %, so maybe that's not such a bad thing!
For no reason whatsoever, I'm oddly optimistic. I have a feeling someone is going to have a really good shooting night, and I think we're going to turn them over a lot. We lead the conference in steals by a considerable amount and WVU isn't the most efficient on offense, so I'm banking on that being enough to overcome what is likely going to be a large free throw disparity.
I feel much more confident about this game than the Tech game, that game was a worse case scenario (that played out even worse than that).
As others have mentioned, the biggest thing about this game is that WVU draws (and commits) the most fouls in the conference. They are averaging almost 28FTAs per game in conference. If we can keep them under 30FTAs I think we have a decent shot at winning.
One thing about games like this - especially on the road - is that trying to draw charges often doesn't work nearly as well as at home. But I don't see how we can change up the defense to lower the number of times we try to draw charges, so they just need to be sure they get set early.
Other than getting to the line a ton, the rest of their offense fits well into our defense. They don't take many 2pt shots - and we give up one of the lowest rates of 2pt shot attempts in the country. Their 3pt shooting hasn't been as good in conf play (30%), but they've made at least 8 in 4 of their last 5 games. Holding them to 6 or less would be good.
As others have mentioned, the biggest thing about this game is that WVU draws (and commits) the most fouls in the conference. They are averaging almost 28FTAs per game in conference. If we can keep them under 30FTAs I think we have a decent shot at winning.
One thing about games like this - especially on the road - is that trying to draw charges often doesn't work nearly as well as at home. But I don't see how we can change up the defense to lower the number of times we try to draw charges, so they just need to be sure they get set early.
Other than getting to the line a ton, the rest of their offense fits well into our defense. They don't take many 2pt shots - and we give up one of the lowest rates of 2pt shot attempts in the country. Their 3pt shooting hasn't been as good in conf play (30%), but they've made at least 8 in 4 of their last 5 games. Holding them to 6 or less would be good.
I think conference game stats paint a better picture now that we are 10 games into the conference season. We know that competition faced is pretty equal.
Iowa State has a better scoring margin in conf. games:
1 ISU 71.5-63.8 +7.7
...
5 WVU 72.8-71.7 +1.1
In conf. games Iowa State is much better behind the arc:
1 KSU .374
2 ISU .374
...
7 WVU .305
Iowa State has the better turnover margin in conf. games:
1 ISU +3.20
...
7 WVU -0.20
And the better assist to turnover ratio in conf. games:
1 BU 1.31
2 ISU 1.18
...
8 WVU 0.85
In conf. games Iowa State creates a lot of steals which lead to fast break opportunities. WVU, not so much:
1 TCU 9.0
2 ISU 7.9
...
10 WVU 4.7
In conf. games Iowa State still has a slightly better rebounding margin:
1 ISU +4.90
2 WVU +4.60
Iowa State still leads the league in Def Reb % in league games:
1 ISU .752
2 WVU .728
But they have dropped to third in Off Reb % in league games:
1 BU .365
2 WVU .361
3 ISU .344
WVU shoots more and makes more FTs than Iowa State. WVU has shot more FTs than anyone else in the conference but not at a great rate:
...
7 WVU 188/272 .691
...
10 ISU 106/162 .654
It's going to be a battle.
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I think we aren't as mirror-images as their previous teams would suggest. They aren't as proficient at forcing turnovers as they've been in previous years.
In Kenpom they are 16th on offense and 38th on defense. We are 63rd and 11th.
interestingly - we've gone opposite ways as the season has gone on. They are shooting 30% in conference games and we are over 37%.
Rebounding stats can be misleading - especially based on a slow pace of play. If you look at the pace adjusted stats we're both in the 30-40 range nationally on second chance points. We're top 20 in defensive rebounding (limiting second chance points ) and they aren't top 100.
I was surprised to see that we averaged 3 more steals per game than them.
*Edit - I've even more surprised that WVU is last in conference play in pts allowed.
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I looked at the stats of their last few home games - opponents have fouled more than WV. That is the biggest joke of all time. Really, it shows you how Huggy's hacking/wrestling/MMA defense strategy works -- they bring you down to their level and then beat you with experience. Its gonna be a game where WV gets called for fouls when committing assault, and ISU gets called for ticky-tacky stuff. Critical for TJ to prepare and coach them thru that.
Gonna have to have a good shooting night, period. WV loses when they shoot worse than opponent.
I don't think we get run out of the gym by any means, but I do think a win will be tough to come by. They get to the FT line a lot, which tells me that Huggy has them playing to contact. A favorable whistle, which is pretty likely in Morgantown, will spell trouble for us, especially if one of Tamin, Jaren, Gabe, or Caleb get into foul trouble early. Seems like a game Tamin could struggle in, and he is kind of a lynchpin for us of sorts, in that he is the best ball handler/sometimes the only one willing to handle the ball.
It's a road game so this team will make us nervous as the game progresses. Morgantown is always a tough place to play. Looking back on this season, an epic choke job against TT and blowing it against Okie State in the second half are tough pills to swallow. Had we taken care of business in the second half in those two games we would be alone atop the conference and be 18-4, looking at a possible 1 seed right now.
After losing at TT any road game in the Big 12 worries me at this point. Looking at our schedule too right now 3 of the 4 road games are against teams ranked 12 5 and 14 and only 17 TCU is the only ranked opponent at the moment we have left to play in Hilton.
Just need to keep taking these games 1 at a time and not look forward too far ahead. Got a lot of tough games ahead that if we want a shot at the conference title can't look any further than the game to be played next as it could be the game that makes or breaks that chance to win the conference.
Just need to keep taking these games 1 at a time and not look forward too far ahead. Got a lot of tough games ahead that if we want a shot at the conference title can't look any further than the game to be played next as it could be the game that makes or breaks that chance to win the conference.
I had the good fortune of meeting the "H Bear" a few times when they came to Ames, so I follow his teams and root for them more than I ever have for a conference opponent. He's as down to earth and real as any coach I've ever met, and that's not saying a lot. He's the real deal, man!!
To me, at the beginning of the year, they looked a lot like a skilled YMCA team with talent, but no cohesiveness and no defensive identity. Now, much better.
They're always tough at home, I'm just crossing my fingers...
To me, at the beginning of the year, they looked a lot like a skilled YMCA team with talent, but no cohesiveness and no defensive identity. Now, much better.
They're always tough at home, I'm just crossing my fingers...
I think we win because Holmes (or Lipsey) will have an Abdel Nadar type performance that WVU won't have an answer for.
Drive, drive, drive to the rim baby!
Drive, drive, drive to the rim baby!
Ehhh, every team in the country has bad losses. Even those teams fighting for 1 seeds right now.
It has always been a struggle for us to play in Morgantown. This place and the phog might be the two places I hate playing the most in the big 12 just because we hardly ever do well there.
When Colorado left, WVU replaced them as the arena where ISU is conspicuously non-competitive when playing there.
