If they are able to get out of the ACC, I don’t see any way in hell they join the Big 12. But it’s funny they view joining the Big 12 as preferable to staying in the ACC
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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If they are able to get out of the ACC, I don’t see any way in hell they join the Big 12. But it’s funny they view joining the Big 12 as preferable to staying in the ACC
Agreed. I think the SEC might pass on them, but I doubt the Big Ten will.
I actually think we may have had it backwards the whole time. FSU and Miami to the Big Ten and UNC and UVA to the SEC.
The SEC could use the academic clout and the Big Ten benefits from getting into Florida.
The question is does the SEC stop at 18 or do they go to 20? Who gets left out. Clemson picked a really bad time to regress.
McMurphy and his source need to revise the wording of this. Starting out the process means diddly, if they are successful with the process (and that's a big if IMO), then they would be correct.
Regarding FSU's posturing/actions we tend to focus on the most recent realignment moves where Pac12 schools moved after 1 season. Easy to forget, OuT played in the Big12 for 3 seasons after they announced they were leaving in late summer 2021.
So a 3-5 year timeline wouldn't be crazy for FSU based on the legal complexity of their direction.
So a 3-5 year timeline wouldn't be crazy for FSU based on the legal complexity of their direction.
The B12 GOR expiration was one year after OUT's departure.
Even with a 5 year timeline, ACC GOR expiration would be 8 years after. That is a huge and very significant difference and would still involve a $500M type settlement if they are going to Fox/B10.
The SEC only stops at 18 if they are happy being a regional conference.
The Big 10 already added 4 Pac12 schools with a strong likelihood of adding ACC schools (in SEC's footprint). I don't feel the SEC can stand still and still maintain media rights parity with the Big10 when 2032 rolls around.
At some point, the SEC will expand west and into the Midwest to compete against Big10 for eyeballs in those regions.
Yep. They only were able to leave 1 year before the GOR expired and still had to pay $100M ($50M each).
The ACC GOR goes for another 12 years. Just using the buyout figure from the Big 12 (and I think the ACC would hold out for higher because their landing isn’t as soft as the Big 12’s was) it’s basically $50M per year. So even if they wanted to leave in 3 years, that’s still $450M. They don’t have that kind of money.
Utah will be waiting by the phone every day until this happens.
The Big12 GOR expiration (2025) is one year after OuT's departure. But OuT announced they were leaving in 2021, four years before GOR expiration.
Also, the ACC GOR is 2 agreements. The original GOR which expires in 2027 and an extension which runs through 2036. The extension was tied to ESPN agreeing to form the ACCN. There is conjecture FSU will focus their legal challenge on the GOR extension and try to bolt after 2026/27. Which also matches closely with when new 12 team CFP TV deal.
Oh that I didn’t know. That makes the finances more palatable. If they can find a loophole there
Florida State leaving the ACC would have massive ramifications for the future of college athletics
FSU desperately wants out of the ACC and its 20-year contract with ESPN, but every turn of conference realignment brings something unexpected.
sports.yahoo.com
The problem with the buyout theory is that nobody who has the kind of money it would take to get just one school out of the ACC would have any way to get an ROI on it. And that's really the sticking point - in addition to explaining who would put up the money, there also has to be an explanation why.
- The schools don't have it, and $400m+ is a fuckload to try to raise off donors.
- Does it make sense for the networks to pay about $50M per year and then pay another $50m for the schools through the conferences? Probably not. Even if the schools take a reduced rate, they networks would still have to justify paying them $75m+/year. Never mind that ESPN already owns the rights at far less. Now multiply that by 2/4/6/8 or however many leave for the B10/SEC/B12.
- The conferences aren't going to get a premium on increased media deals (see above) get back the outlay in buying them out.
- The rest of the ACC isn't going to just go away. First, the numbers being thrown around would make the schools left behind whole on the basis of the contract, but those schools have the upper hand in negotiations not the strength of the GOR and contract that's in place. There's a price to change a "no" to a "yes," and I'm not sure what that number is.
B1G and SEC will only take them at reduced revenue. And, if so, it has to be comparable to OR, WU. Too many tiers of revenue will complicate things a lot. The 'ripple' effect alluded to lends credence to the mega merger. The fun is starting again. Oh my!
What they want and what they want to get paid for are two vastly different things. If the money isn't there, it's simply not there. Now, of course, I don't know the specifics of the ESPN contract with the SEC (like exclusivity), but if the SEC has a means to scrape up 'alternative' dollars to make it happen, that too is a whole other matter.
The SEC spells clout with a "K". And dollars.
People acting like this is about the conferences fighting over schools have it wrong and are living in the 90s. TV is the driver here. Follow the money.
Florida State leaving the ACC would have massive ramifications for the future of college athletics
FSU desperately wants out of the ACC and its 20-year contract with ESPN, but every turn of conference realignment brings something unexpected.
If ESPN wants to pick the cream from the ACC for their SEC product, then it will happen (eventually). That will save ESPN money overall, since they won't have to pay for ACC football anymore. Rather pay 4 teams $60M and 11 teams $10M, than pay 15 teams $30M.
SEC comments about "opposition" are just to drive UP the price from ESPN, and set FSU up for partial shares for a while - pure posturing.
Talking out of my @$$ but in terms of just college football eyeballs I would think just FSU adds more value than any of the four schools the Big Ten just added given they have nothing in Florida yet. Significantly more than three of them.
It's possible the networks are truly just tapped out short term but long term I can't see how adding USC/UCLA as a geographic island was great but adding FSU/Miami or just FSU is a pass.
Disagree about the SEC's intentions.
They are not competing for eyeballs in regions at this point. They have big enough brands they don't care about getting a 2 instead of a 1 viewer rating in Wyoming.
SEC product strategy is to have the "best" programs and that's enough to drive huge viewership in the handful of prime timeslots. They only need maybe 4 marquee games per week. 16 teams where roughly 8 of them are blue bloods, that's enough right there for the matchups needed.
That's also why FSU has value for them - it's not about gaining eyeballs in Florida. It's about another huge brand to bring into the fold. Clemson is same.
This is a little different than B1G. They are doing same wrt brands, but they ARE looking for geography too. I think the BTN brings value from that, apparently worth the effort. I still wouldn't be shocked if the BTN adds Stanford someday.
ESPN would have to continue that ACC contract or the lawsuits would end up costing more than $400m.
