A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

[bawbie]

I'm pretty excited about Lutz, he's one of the top zone defense coaches in the country. Lutz has also had assistants move on to head coaching gigs, at really small schools but its still impressive. I hope Freddie (and the other coaches on the staff) are able to pick up as much as they can from Lutz because I'd imagine it won't be long til he has some offers coming his way, especially after we get our ship righted

I was excited about Lutz until I saw that he ditched the mustache.

[BryceC]

I love this staff and the young talent we have both on the team and coaching on the bench. However I will be very satisfied with anything close to a .500 finish. Sure, this is the best backcourt since Stinson and Blalock, but we likely have had the worst backcourt in the Big 12 each season since that time.

I do agree that we might be able to pick off some unexpected games because of a unique style. All of this is also based on the fact that I expect Royce to not be eligible - if he can play, we can have enough depth in the frontcourt and backcourt to maybe, maybe make a NIT run.

[CyJack13]

Reasons for my optimism:

1. A stronger back court. DG is a senior this year at the point and the coaching staff is expecting him to actually run the team instead of always looking for Brackins to feed. SC will start healthy and he's a senior as well. Anderson is a senior transfer platooning at the 2 with SC. Three seniors in the guard court is a huge factor for my being optimistic.
2. Coach Bobby Lutz -- with him at CFH's side, the coaching staff won't get "out-coached." You know that CBL will be the primary game coach through the first half of the season. ISU will get out-played in some games, but not out-coached.
3. Young, but very good talent at the 3.
4. Players that won't get out-worked during a game. Hard work beats talent that doesn't work hard.

ISU won't be the more talented team in a number of its games, but I expect a hustling team that fights for every loose ball and rebound along with a faster style of play. I think this upcoming MBB season will have more than a few pleasant surprises.

I think Lutz was a great hire but he's not Dean Smith. There are a lot of good coaches in the B12, and add the fact that Lutz will be trying to coach based on someone else's philosophies, and there are still plenty of games in which we could be out coached.

[drednot57]

Here's what I'm predicting for the MBB team this upcoming season, revised:

Format: Team, Prediction, Notes

Northern Arizona (h), W, Easy non-conference foe. Should win

Alabama State (h), W, Same as N. AZ

Drake (h), W, Drake is quietly assembling a potentially very good MVC team. Look for this game to come down to the wire with a close ISU win.

Creighton (h @ the Well), L, (The Bluejays will probably be down this year after a coaching change.) Change this game to an "L" as Creighton is one the Valley favorites this year despite a major coaching change.

Kennesaw State (h), W, Kids, can we say "cupcake"?

Montana State (h), W, See Kennesaw State

Northern Iowa (a), L, UNI should field another very good team even though they're in a rebuilding year and the game's on the road.

California (h), W, UCal-Berkeley is in a down year and the game's at home. A Pac 10 team ripe for the picking.

Southeast Missouri State (h), W, An OVC team at home -- probable.

Iowa (a), W, The Hawkeyes aren't significantly better after a coaching change than before if even if the game's at Iowa City.

Texas Southern (h), W, See Kennesaw State

Dartmouth (h), W, An Ivy League school at home, so a low scoring game. ISU wins.

Chicago State (h), W, See Kennesaw State

Virginia (a), (L) W, (A very tough ACC foe on the road. ISU's first big loss.) Change from the "big loss" category to a possible win with UVa picked dead last in the ACC.

Northern Illinois (h), W, A MAC team at home -- probable.

Nebraska (a), W, It's Nebraska Men's Basketball, need I say more? Probably ISU's only conference road victory.

Kansas (h), L, One the Big 12 front runners. I don't see ISU winning this one even if the game’s at home.

Baylor (h), L, With LaceDarius Dunn playing a loss, without him playing, a possible win at home.

Oklahoma State (a), L, A Big 12 first division team on the road; don't see ISU winning here either.

Missouri (a), L, A Big 12 favorite on the road. ISU's first big loss.

Texas Tech (h), W, A second division Big 12 team at home. ISU wins.

Oklahoma (h), W, The second worst team in the Big 12 per the Coaches Poll at home. Should win.

Colorado (a), L, Boulder's altitude always gives ISU players fits, plus CU fields a decent team this year. Look for a loss here.

Kansas State (h), L, The Big 12 front-runner at home. ISU still loses.

Kansas (a), L, KU at The Phog. A big loss again.

Texas A&M (a), L, One of the better second division Big 12 foes on the road; no win here.

Missouri (h), L, Mizzou at home; still a loss.

Texas (a), L, UT on the road, a definite loss.

Nebraska (h), W, If Nebbie can't beat ISU at their place, how can they beat the 'Clones at Hilton?

Colorado (h), W, ISU picks up its final home and conference win here.

Kansas State (a), L, Yet another big loss on the road to a conference favorite.

Final Overall Record -- 18-14 NIT, here we come? A major step forward for the program.

Final Conference Record -- 5-11 A five win conference season at this stage of the program is pretty decent IMO.

As evidenced with my projections, I'm far more optimistic than all the "doom and gloom" prognosticators. The season will be a disappointment if the 'Clones win only 12 games. A 14 to 19 win season is more in line vis-a-vis the teams they'll play this year, and this is a really "cupcake-ish" schedule. I really feel an above .500 record is probable. Cal, particularly, is a candidate for a win against a team from a "top tier" conference. I think the 'Clones will be strong at home, but a weak road team. Hence my predictions for the upcoming season.

I made a couple of revisions on my predictions. Particularly I changed the At Virginia game to a "W" since they're picked to be last in the ACC, and the Creighton game to an "L".