Kenpom odds ISU vs UVA

**Cyrok** · 12-22-2010, 12:16 PM

For the first time this season Kenpom has us favored to win at Virginia. (51%) I'm very excited for this game, and I'm grateful for the excellent work CFH and the team has done to get to this point.

Here's the link:
2011 scouting report for Iowa St.

By the way, our chance to win at Nebraska has been downgraded to 28%. But our predicted season win total is up to 18 which I would think puts us right in the middle of the bubble for NIT - what an awesome place to be considering the expectations over the past 8 months.

**CycloneJames** · 12-22-2010, 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by Cyrok

For the first time this season Kenpom has us favored to win at Virginia. (51%) I'm very excited for this game, and I'm grateful for the excellent work CFH and the team has done to get to this point.

Here's the link:
2011 scouting report for Iowa St.

By the way, our chance to win at Nebraska has been downgraded to 28%. But our predicted season win total is up to 18 which I would think puts us right in the middle of the bubble for NIT - what an awesome place to be considering the expectations over the past 8 months.

Right now, I'd say we have about a 40% chance for each game. Comparing Virginia and Nebraska, I'm wondering where the 23% difference is. If anything, I'd say I like our chances to beat Nebraska before beating Virginia.

I would think 18 wins and we would practically be a lock for the NIT. How many 18 win BCS teams have not made it since they changed the format?

**ajk4st8** · 12-22-2010, 09:31 PM

Nebraska is pretty much in the same boat as us. Not sure if they are a bit better or not. Should make for an excellent game.

**flander1649** · 12-23-2010, 10:47 AM

Virgina lost last night to Seattle U 59-53 and their best player Scott was back last night.

**Marti4Cy** · 12-23-2010, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by ajk4st8

Nebraska is pretty much in the same boat as us. Not sure if they are a bit better or not. Should make for an excellent game.

Nebraska lost their best player yesterday. Stanhardinger (spelling?) left to play with Lucca in Germany, or something like that.

**bosco** · 12-23-2010, 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by flander1649

Virgina lost last night to Seattle U 59-53 and their best player Scott was back last night.

How do you go from beating Minny at Minny and lose at home against Seattle?! This team is Sybil and with our luck we'll get the psychotic personality that wants to kill.

**bawbie** · 12-23-2010, 11:24 AM

After their loss to Seattle, our win percentage is up to 58%. Of course, UVa's win percentage over Seattle was 96%, so...

Also, our projected record is up to 19-12, and we are up to #58 in his rankings.

**Wesley** · 12-23-2010, 11:33 AM

Starting in 2004, looks like we won 5, 7, 9, 6, 6, 4, 4, and 4 conference games and lost 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 4, and 4 non conference games over the last seven years. We may be uptrending.

LOOKS like Morgan did better than his replacement.

**Cyrok** · 12-23-2010, 12:37 PM

Do any of you post in the "Conversation" from ESPN? It's starting to pick up steam:
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Virginia Cavaliers - Conversation - December 30, 2010 - ESPN
Should be a great game, and even though I have a lot of respect for their program, fans, and team, I'd love to see us kick them in the teeth.

**agardini** · 12-23-2010, 01:38 PM

Originally Posted by bawbie

After their loss to Seattle, our win percentage is up to 58%. Of course, UVa's win percentage over Seattle was 96%, so...

Also, our projected record is up to 19-12, and we are up to #58 in his rankings.

I've been looking at our stats on kenpom for awhile now and we have been predicted for 19 wins for weeks now.

**clone52** · 12-23-2010, 01:56 PM

Originally Posted by ajk4st8

Nebraska is pretty much in the same boat as us. Not sure if they are a bit better or not. Should make for an excellent game.

Nebraska has a fairly close loss to a very good Vanderbilt team. The only good team either ISU or Nebby has played. I thnk they are 2-1 against average teams while we are 3-2. Otherwise, we've both just beaten the snot out of horrible teams. My hunch is that their second loss being a relatively close one to a highly rated Vanderbilt team pushes their ratings above ours. Had we swapped Creighton for Vandy, similar results probably would have occured and ISU would be a big favorite.

**CarolinaCy** · 12-23-2010, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by clone52

Nebraska has a fairly close loss to a very good Vanderbilt team. The only good team either ISU or Nebby has played. I thnk they are 2-1 against average teams while we are 3-2. Otherwise, we've both just beaten the snot out of horrible teams. My hunch is that their second loss being a relatively close one to a highly rated Vanderbilt team pushes their ratings above ours. Had we swapped Creighton for Vandy, similar results probably would have occured and ISU would be a big favorite.

Nebraska beat USC, who has beaten Texas and Tennessee, and had a very close loss to Kansas. They've also beaten TCU, who beat USC and Texas Tech.

Their win over USC is leaps and bounds better than any win that we have.

**clone52** · 12-23-2010, 02:19 PM

Originally Posted by CarolinaCy

Nebraska beat USC, who has beaten Texas and Tennessee, and had a very close loss to Kansas. They've also beaten TCU, who beat USC and Texas Tech.

Their win over USC is leaps and bounds better than any win that we have.

You're right, that USC win is better than any of ours by a bit. Not leaps and bounds though. They also have loses to Rider and Bradley. Northern Arizona isn't that far behind USC.

In all honesty, its not unlikely that Nebraska would have beat Northern Arizona and lost to UNI and ISU would have beat USC and lost to Vandy and the ratings would be swapped. At this point I think the teams are probably equal, although with Standhardinger gone, I think we're above the.

**CarolinaCy** · 12-23-2010, 03:19 PM

Originally Posted by clone52

You're right, that USC win is better than any of ours by a bit. Not leaps and bounds though. They also have loses to Rider and Bradley. Northern Arizona isn't that far behind USC.

In all honesty, its not unlikely that Nebraska would have beat Northern Arizona and lost to UNI and ISU would have beat USC and lost to Vandy and the ratings would be swapped. At this point I think the teams are probably equal, although with Standhardinger gone, I think we're above the.

Ken Pomeroy has USC at 55 and Northern Arizona at 120, not very close at all.

Our 2 best wins are Iowa (74) and Creighton (94). Our losses are Cal (77) and UNI (85)

NU's 2 best wins are USC (55) and Creighton (94). Their losses are Vandy (16) and Davidson (105)

Pretty close I suppose, though Iowa hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse outside of UNI, and even that's debatable. Their loss to Vandy is also much better than either of our 2 losses.

Personally, I think Nebraska isn't nearly as good as their record indicates, but I suppose you could say the same about us at this point. I agree with you about Stanhardinger, that will be a big blow to NU and they should struggle once again in conference play.