Reasonable expectations, based on next 5 games

[cyclones500]

This is a subset of ISUCyclone06’s recent post, “Next 10 games will show us who we really are.” I argued that the next five games would tell us quite a bit about what to expect the rest of the season.

I initially compiled this prior to the Virginia win, so I started w/ NIU and added the OSU game.

I didn’t predict the specific teams for the W’s & L’s, which could obviously affect postseason possibilities. Also, take my Likelihood percentages with a grain of salt (or the whole thing, if you really like salt ).

5-0 (17-2)
Postseason: Realistic, bordering on expected. NCAA tourney talk would still be premature (it would require additional quality wins even if the overall record is solid), but the buzz would become hard to resist.
Winning record: Mathematical lock
Likelihood: 4%

4-1 (16-3)
Postseason: Attainable
Winning record: Lock
Likelihood: 20%

3-2 (15-4)
Postseason: Premature, but gaining momentum
Winning record: Probable
Likelihood: 40%

2-3 (14-5)
Postseason: Possible, but still in “wishful thinking” category.
Winning record: Realistic
I think ISU can catch at least one vs. NU/BU
Likelihood: 80%

1-4 (13-6)
Postseason: Unrealistic
Winning record: Attainable, but little margin for error
Likelihood: 20%

0-5 (12-7)
Postseason: Doubtful
Winning record: Unrealistic
This would be disappointing, even for fans with modest hopes for the remainder of FH Season 1.
Likelihood: 4%

[CYVADER]

well if we lose to niu the sky will fall on this place, so 0-5 better not be an option-that's 1.

i think we split bu and nu, although i have no idea which one we win-2-1

no way we beat kansas imo-2-2

very doubtful we beat osu on the road imo. 2-3

so i would agree with putting the highest % on 2-3. MAYBE we beat 2 of osu, bu and nu, but i seriously doubt it.

[CYlent Bob]

This is a subset of ISUCyclone06’s recent post, “Next 10 games will show us who we really are.” I argued that the next five games would tell us quite a bit about what to expect the rest of the season.

I initially compiled this prior to the Virginia win, so I started w/ NIU and added the OSU game.

I didn’t predict the specific teams for the W’s & L’s, which could obviously affect postseason possibilities. Also, take my Likelihood percentages with a grain of salt (or the whole thing, if you really like salt ).

5-0 (17-2)
Postseason: Realistic, bordering on expected. NCAA tourney talk would still be premature (it would require additional quality wins even if the overall record is solid), but the buzz would become hard to resist.
Winning record: Mathematical lock
Likelihood: 4%

4-1 (16-3)
Postseason: Attainable
Winning record: Lock
Likelihood: 20%

3-2 (15-4)
Postseason: Premature, but gaining momentum
Winning record: Probable
Likelihood: 40%

2-3 (14-5)
Postseason: Possible, but still in “wishful thinking” category.
Winning record: Realistic
I think ISU can catch at least one vs. NU/BU
Likelihood: 80%

1-4 (13-6)
Postseason: Unrealistic
Winning record: Attainable, but little margin for error
Likelihood: 20%

0-5 (12-7)
Postseason: Doubtful
Winning record: Unrealistic
This would be disappointing, even for fans with modest hopes for the remainder of FH Season 1.
Likelihood: 4%

Not to be a "math Nazi", but the sum of your probablities comes up to 168%. I agree that 2-3 is the smart money's call for our next five games, but I wouldn't be shocked if we stole one and slipped in at 3-2. So, despite your math, I find your logic to be very well thought out. Good job.

[Clones21]

I think we already know who we are. We are a three point shooting and guard based team. We will have nights where teams probably score 40 points on us down low.

[HFCS]

I think we already know who we are. We are a three point shooting and guard based team. We will have nights where teams probably score 40 points on us down low.

Balanced by nights we get 50 from our guards.

The blowout possibility is there for sure if shots don't fall and the other team slows down the game for big men. How good will we be at dictating tempo? Better than against UNI I hope.

One thing I'm hoping for is some other teams play "their game" and run with us when they could probably take us out by slowing it down and feeding the post.

Next year I hope we just smack everyone around if they want to slow it down :-)

[cyclonedave25]

Here's my quick rundown of possible records:

5-0: 1%
4-1: 9%
3-2: 20%
2-3: 40%
1-4: 25%
0-5: 5%

[cyclones500]

Not to be a "math Nazi", but the sum of your probablities comes up to 168%. I agree that 2-3 is the smart money's call for our next five games, but I wouldn't be shocked if we stole one and slipped in at 3-2. So, despite your math, I find your logic to be very well thought out. Good job.

Thanks ---

I was going to make a note about the probabilities, although I didn't know how to explain it so I waited until it was called into question. It wasn't meant to be additive over the five games — just my guess about the chances of a specific record during that span. I probably should have done it so it added to 100.

It also wasn't supposed to be "cumulative" (if that's the right word) — if the record is 2-3, there's a 100 percent chance of being at least 1-4, etc.

[Cyforce]

Not to be a "math Nazi", but the sum of your probablities comes up to 168%. I agree that 2-3 is the smart money's call for our next five games, but I wouldn't be shocked if we stole one and slipped in at 3-2. So, despite your math, I find your logic to be very well thought out. Good job.

I think if the team can give 168% effort we have a very good chance of beating anyone.

[jburke]

Here's my quick rundown of possible records:

5-0: 1%
4-1: 9%
3-2: 20%
2-3: 40%
1-4: 25%
0-5: 5%

probably correct accept, 3-2 is 25% and 1-4 is 20%...

[cyclonedave25]

probably correct accept, 3-2 is 25% and 1-4 is 20%...

Yeah, it's close, thats for sure. I just think, based on who we play the first 5 games, I think we have a slightly better chance at going 1-4, than we do 3-2.

[jsb]

I'm still at the point where I don't expect to win any games. Tomorrow night has me worried sick. Thursday I was convinced we were going to get blown out. Honestly, it's a nice place to be. I am truly, truly enjoying every single win. Although you would think the losses would be easier to take, but they aren't!

It has been a really fun season so far. Much nicer than last year when even though our record was close to the same (against slightly better competition), you just knew that we were 2 losses away from being out of the NCAA tournament.

One thing that I hope this year is that when we lose, we won't lose all hope. I thought that last year's team kept playing hard, but it was almost like they thought they were going to lose. They hadn't given up, but they just didn't think they could pull games out.

[timappelgate]

This season is just a buffer for next season. Lose DG and JVB and add White, Allen, Babb and Booker. Sounds like chemistry is already strong, so ANY positive this year will help next year. Lets win the games we're supposed to win (NIU, maybe NEB, OU, Tech, CU) and surprise 2-3 people like we're capable of.

[Cydkar]

Here's my quick rundown of possible records:

5-0: 1%
4-1: 9%
3-2: 20%
2-3: 40%
1-4: 25%
0-5: 5%

0-5: 0.5%

NIU is turrible.

[CycloneWanderer]

Did NIU just beat UNI?

*scratch that. SIU just beat UNI, not NIU. It does appear that NIU is badsauce.

[cyclonedave25]

0-5: 0.5%

NIU is turrible.

I wasn't talking about that game, but the first 5 conference games. Sorry for the confusion.