It's early, but who would have thought that possible three weeks ago? I've heard all of the "experts" say the B12 will only get four teams in the tournament this year. Might as well be us in that group.
I think 8 more wins gets us in for sure. Here they are:
@TT
@Tex
KSU
@OU
A&M
OU
TT
B12 first or second round win
We could have others, but these look like the most realistic chances. That gives us 21 wins and most likely 4th or 5th place in the B12.
It's early, but who would have thought that possible three weeks ago? I've heard all of the "experts" say the B12 will only get four teams in the tournament this year. Might as well be us in that group.
I think 8 more wins gets us in for sure. Here they are:
@TT
@Tex
KSU
@OU
A&M
OU
TT
B12 first or second round win
We could have others, but these look like the most realistic chances. That gives us 21 wins and most likely 4th or 5th place in the B12.
Based on current snapshot, 8 wins probably does it, but I disagree a smidgeon on those particular 8.
(a) One W almost has to be KU or BU — honestly, winning both at home is preferable, but I'd take a split if either we sweep UT or split with Missouri.
(b) I have a hunch we lose at OU — just a gut feeling. It wouldn't be the worst road loss we could have (Tech & OSU are more likely to bog-down the resume). I would exchange that type of loss for two-thirds of (a)
(c) Don't rely on Big 12 tournament wins as a difference-maker. I've seen that mentioned several times in "what will it take to make the tournament?" threads, and I won't elaborate in-depth here. To summarize, conference tourney wins don't count as "extra credit." It obviously doesn't "hurt" to win; importance of those games is circumstantial.
@TTech W 80%
@Texas W 50% Kansas W 35% Kansas State W 50%
@OU W 70%
@OSU L 50% Texas A&M W 80%
@Baylor L 25% OU W 85% TTech W 95%
@Kstate L 50%
@Missouri L 40% Baylor L 40%
That puts us at 11-7 in conference and 21-10 overall I believe. We would definitely be in that dance.
Obviously the KU game is a big upset, but I believe that this team can do it at Hilton. It's the biggest game of the year for the crowd, it's 1:00 PM on a Saturday, everyone will be extremely excited, especially if we get these next two wins.
I could easily see us losing to KU as well, but I could also see us beating Baylor at home or sneaking a win either @Mizzou, @Kstate, @OSU, or vs Baylor but those would be tough wins.
Statistically I think those percentages add up to 7.5 wins which is very close to my prediction. The KU win is probably a little bold compared to our % chance.
Last edited by Rhoadhoused; 01-19-2012 at 12:35 AM.
"He is the toughest I have ever been around, physically and mentally," Burnham said. "You can beat him down but you’re not going to beat him out. He’s got the mindset of, ‘If you’re going to get me out of this game, you’re going to have to kill me.’ That’s about where he is."
-Wally Burnham on Jake Knott
Feels pretty good to be where we are, overall. After Saturday, we *should* be 4-2 in conference. It's been a long time since we've been able to say anything remotely close to that.
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Originally Posted by HuddleUp 
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