Jason King: Big 12 Nonconference schedule analysis

**brokenloginagain** · 10-12-2012, 06:58 AM

Originally Posted by kucyclone

Comparing last year's non-conference schedule to this year's, using KenPom's pythag rankings from last season, it is clear that this season's schedule is worse, unless many teams on this year's schedule are a lot better than last year.

Attachment 15619

A big reason for this, as you can see, is that we went incredibly cheap for the guarantee games this season, inviting some of the worst teams available in the country to play at Hilton, which will do nothing but drag our SOS down from the back-end, even if the top-end games are more-or-less equal.

There's three games - perhaps four if Iowa is good; I think we all have our doubts - on the non-conference schedule that can help us with the selection committee, the two Vegas games and against BYU, all played within eight days at the end of November. Any other non-conference game won't have a positive effect for the selection committee. So how are we preparing for that crucial three-game non-conference stretch? By playing Southern, Alabama A&M, Campbell, and North Carolina A&T at home.

If we really want to invest in our basketball program, we can't continue to go this cheap with non-conference scheduling.

the reason we are "preparing" against weak competition before the vegas games is because those teams are in the tournament - we have to play them, that's how those tourneys work.

**HoopsTournament** · 10-12-2012, 07:04 AM

Originally Posted by brokenloginagain

the reason we are "preparing" against weak competition before the vegas games is because those teams are in the tournament - we have to play them, that's how those tourneys work.

Can you really call it a tournament when even if you lose to a team in the preliminary game, you still advance to semis. That happened when Gonzaga lost to SD State two years ago in a "tournament".

**Let's Go State** · 10-12-2012, 07:07 AM

Do we not play UNI?

edit: just checked.... Nope

**WooClone15** · 10-12-2012, 07:30 AM

So how does scheduling work for basketball? I always assumed that it was like football: you plan your games a few years in advance. Jason King makes it sound like you plan your schedule at the beginning of each season, or at least on a much shorter time frame.

**Cydkar** · 10-12-2012, 07:37 AM

Originally Posted by WooClone15

So how does scheduling work for basketball? I always assumed that it was like football: you plan your games a few years in advance. Jason King makes it sound like you plan your schedule at the beginning of each season, or at least on a much shorter time frame.

A good deal of it is shorter than the time frame for football. You can be filling in games pretty late. The larger home & home series are generally more in advance but not to the extent that football is.

**peteypie** · 10-12-2012, 07:47 AM

Don't dicount Cambell. KenPom is wrong on them, they beat some powerhouses last year.

**Go2Guy** · 10-12-2012, 08:21 AM

Originally Posted by Cyclonin

Wow @Iowa and at home against FGC in the same day. Good thing we have depth.

lol. good catch....on a relative basis, I agree with our score and OSU. Kansas does seem weak - by their standards, but I hope they beat the B10 teams.

**CYUL8R** · 10-12-2012, 09:22 AM

I'm always amazed by this board...but then again it is CycloneFANATIC.

Unless you are a perennial top 10 team, you don't schedule marquee games for your non-conference slate. Sure, a few tough teams here and there (relatively speaking) are expected - but it's not like we're going to be playing a full on conference level schedule every year.

The other thing is that we are definitely not the only team that does this - if you read King's analysis of just about every team but Kansas, he says something to the effect of "this schedule is weak". So tell me, would you rather have a strong SOS and lose over 50% of them, or have a so-called weak SOS and win them all? Remember that while SOS matters some, its the recency of your success when it comes to selection Sunday that matters- if you are hot in Jan/Feb it really doesn't matter how tough your non-con schedule was (within reason).

Best course of action - win them all, win the conference. I don't think anyone would put us on the bubble then.

**brokenloginagain** · 10-12-2012, 09:28 AM

Originally Posted by HoopsTournament

Can you really call it a tournament when even if you lose to a team in the preliminary game, you still advance to semis. That happened when Gonzaga lost to SD State two years ago in a "tournament".

all these events are structured like this and called "exempt" tourneys because you get 4 games but only have to count 2 in your total games allowed. you get two winnable games for "free" and you control the fact you'll get decent competition. otherwise no high majors would ever sign up.

**The_Architect** · 10-12-2012, 09:30 AM

Originally Posted by peteypie

Don't dicount Cambell. KenPom is wrong on them, they beat some powerhouses last year.

**brokenloginagain** · 10-12-2012, 09:30 AM

Originally Posted by CYUL8R

I'm always amazed by this board...but then again it is CycloneFANATIC.

Unless you are a perennial top 10 team, you don't schedule marquee games for your non-conference slate. Sure, a few tough teams here and there (relatively speaking) are expected - but it's not like we're going to be playing a full on conference level schedule every year.

The other thing is that we are definitely not the only team that does this - if you read King's analysis of just about every team but Kansas, he says something to the effect of "this schedule is weak". So tell me, would you rather have a strong SOS and lose over 50% of them, or have a so-called weak SOS and win them all? Remember that while SOS matters some, its the recency of your success when it comes to selection Sunday that matters- if you are hot in Jan/Feb it really doesn't matter how tough your non-con schedule was (within reason).

Best course of action - win them all, win the conference. I don't think anyone would put us on the bubble then.

"recency" no longer matters, they got rid of that criteria a few years ago.

**CYUL8R** · 10-12-2012, 03:04 PM

Originally Posted by brokenloginagain

"recency" no longer matters, they got rid of that criteria a few years ago.

It may not matter as a statistic...but some of this selection is still subjective - that was my point. Until you get to a place where the selection for the tournament is 100% driven by computers and the human factor is eliminated you can't say it doesn't matter.

I still stick to my bottom line - win them all, win the conference and it's a done deal for the tourney.

**cyclones500** · 10-13-2012, 02:10 AM

Originally Posted by brokenloginagain

"recency" no longer matters, they got rid of that criteria a few years ago.

Concur.

**cyclones500** · 10-13-2012, 02:34 AM

Originally Posted by kucyclone

Comparing last year's non-conference schedule to this year's, using KenPom's pythag rankings from last season, it is clear that this season's schedule is worse, unless many teams on this year's schedule are a lot better than last year.

Attachment 15619

A big reason for this, as you can see, is that we went incredibly cheap for the guarantee games this season, inviting some of the worst teams available in the country to play at Hilton, which will do nothing but drag our SOS down from the back-end, even if the top-end games are more-or-less equal.

There's three games - perhaps four if Iowa is good; I think we all have our doubts - on the non-conference schedule that can help us with the selection committee, the two Vegas games and against BYU, all played within eight days at the end of November. Any other non-conference game won't have a positive effect for the selection committee. So how are we preparing for that crucial three-game non-conference stretch? By playing Southern, Alabama A&M, Campbell, and North Carolina A&T at home.

If we really want to invest in our basketball program, we can't continue to go this cheap with non-conference scheduling.

When the schedule was released, I thought it was a tiny step up from last season. I'm not so sure.

BYU = UNI. As you said, if Iowa is relevant, that's a shot at a decent road win.

The early-tournament is the only other place to pick up much cred (which will happen only by winning those games). The cupcakes appear cupcakier.

I don't know how much stock to put in the KemPom comparison at this point — reflected in your qualifier-comment, "unless many teams on this year's schedule are a lot better than last year." It may be a little better or a little worse, but it almost certainly has no more SOS-advantage than 2011-12.

The overall non-league schedule needs some work — We can all discuss ways to bulk up the non-conference in a different thread. We can't change the current schedule.

Anything less than 11-2 this season is likely to elevate the urgency of performance in-conference.

**Rural** · 10-13-2012, 07:22 AM

Originally Posted by cyclones500

When the schedule was released, I thought it was a tiny step up from last season. I'm not so sure.

BYU = UNI. As you said, if Iowa is relevant, that's a shot at a decent road win.

The early-tournament is the only other place to pick up much cred (which will happen only by winning those games). The cupcakes appear cupcakier.

I don't know how much stock to put in the KemPom comparison at this point — reflected in your qualifier-comment, "unless many teams on this year's schedule are a lot better than last year." It may be a little better or a little worse, but it almost certainly has no more SOS-advantage than 2011-12.

The overall non-league schedule needs some work — We can all discuss ways to bulk up the non-conference in a different thread. We can't change the current schedule.

Anything less than 11-2 this season is likely to elevate the urgency of performance in-conference.

Snort, guffaw, cackle