I'm a good lip reader, and........

[Wesley]

(boring statistics; please ignore)

I ran a simulation of 100,011 3-point shots in a row at 29.1% (West Virginia's season shooting percentage), and then counted the number of times WV made 9 (or more) shots out of any given 12. Of the 100,000 possibilities, WV made 9+ of 12 154 times, or about once every 649 shots -- about what the Mountaineers are looking to take this season. In other words, just by pure chance we'd expect a team shooting 29.1% from three-point range to go on a run like WV's about once a season.

That doesn't mean that their streak was necessarily caused completely by randomness. But it does mean that it's not unreasonable to say that it could have been.

So how many times do you expect the Clones to shoot this well this season?

[Ficklone02]

Did you ever tally your shooting percentage after making two in a row? Three in a row? Etc? This exercise has been run many times on many players, many leagues, etc. The results pretty much come out that your chance of making a shot after making x in a row is the same as if you just missed one. Ever miss a shot when "you're feeling it?"

Anyway, there's a whole Wikipedia article about this topic and tons of statistical studies. Maybe I should ping khaal and see if he'd like to do a joint writeup on this using ISU players' stats (or whoever's stats people would like to see) if people are really interested.

Have you ever played basketball before? Confidence has a huge effect on a shooter's ability. You can't just go purely based on statistics, thats something a couch potato whose never played or coached before would say.

[carvers4math]

On the other hand from hot was Tyrus last night, I think it was 1-7 from the three. Yikes. He just kept shooting them. I supposed CFH wanted him to, but even after he missed a bunch he was throwing up some really long threes too.

[nhclone]

Too badd one of you guys wasn't sitting behind CFH crunching all these numbers last night.

[besserheimerphat]

My issue with your stats is that you make it sound like they had a 6% chance to make the last three. That is incorrect. Based on their season percentage it was about 29%. The first 8/23 had already happened and were the improbable part.

Right, it's conditional probability - what is the probability of making the next shot given that they were already 8/23 and their season average is 0.298? Their probability of going 8/23 with a season average of 0.298 was ~22%. Multiply that by the 29.8% season average and it yeilds about 6%.

[carvers4math]

Too badd one of you guys wasn't sitting behind CFH crunching all these numbers last night.

He could use Dr, Charlie Eppes from Numb3rs as as assistant but I think he has another TV gig at the moment.

[CY88CE11]

This is the problem I have with statistics. It is too concrete. You can say I don't fully understand them all you want, but I think the more likely problem is that you don't understand ebbs and flows in sports. Confidence, crowd noise, even distance from the hoop to the front row of fans can all have an effect on a shooter. Throw out all the numbers you want about that last shot being a 6% chance, but I guarantee every Cyclone watching, in Hilton or otherwise, was much more than 6% worried. Given that same shot in the first half, I would have been 6% worried.

[besserheimerphat]

Have you ever played basketball before? Confidence has a huge effect on a shooter's ability. You can't just go purely based on statistics, thats something a couch potato whose never played or coached before would say.

Have you ever done math before? What most people call "stats" in sports is just counting how many times something happened. My three year old can count, that doesn't mean she understands statistics. Statistics and probability are generally non-intuitive. So the fact that you've played basketball before (as have I by the way) has no bearing on your ability to understand probability and randomness both of which are very real and have significant consequences in sports. People smarter than any of us figured this out a while ago, which is why pro sports franchises employ analysts to examine the data. That's why MIT started the Sloan Sports Conference, which is regularly attended by industry executives (like Mark Cuban), to discuss methods for evaluating their sports. I looked up the speakers for the 2013 conference and counted 23 people who work for directly professional leagues or franchises. From MLB, NBA, NFL and even MMA/UFC and auto racing. That's just the speakers - I'd guess that many more will be in attendence. Link: Speakers | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Just because you played basketball doesn't mean you really understand the game.

[Ficklone02]

Too badd one of you guys wasn't sitting behind CFH crunching all these numbers last night.

LOL, funny pic. But, from what I can gather from Fred's interviews he is a huge believer in statistical analysis...to a point. There is a quantitative analysis and a qualitative analysis. Understanding the latter of the two is why the great coaches in any game are almost always former players. They understand what its like to be in a situation. Definitely need to understand both to be an elite coach though.

[Ficklone02]

Have you ever done math before? What most people call "stats" in sports is just counting how many times something happened. My three year old can count, that doesn't mean she understands statistics. Statistics and probability are generally non-intuitive. So the fact that you've played basketball before (as have I by the way) has no bearing on your ability to understand probability and randomness both of which are very real and have significant consequences in sports. People smarter than any of us figured this out a while ago, which is why pro sports franchises employ analysts to examine the data. That's why MIT started the Sloan Sports Conference, which is regularly attended by industry executives (like Mark Cuban), to discuss methods for evaluating their sports. I looked up the speakers for the 2013 conference and counted 23 people who work for directly professional leagues or franchises. From MLB, NBA, NFL and even MMA/UFC and auto racing. That's just the speakers - I'd guess that many more will be in attendence. Link: Speakers | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Just because you played basketball doesn't mean you really understand the game.

I'm a CPA, so yes I know math. It really does not matter what statistics you throw at me, if you've never played before than you don't know.....which is probably the most surprising part of your post, that you say you played.

[besserheimerphat]

This is the problem I have with statistics. It is too concrete. You can say I don't fully understand them all you want, but I think the more likely problem is that you don't understand ebbs and flows in sports. Confidence, crowd noise, even distance from the hoop to the front row of fans can all have an effect on a shooter. Throw out all the numbers you want about that last shot being a 6% chance, but I guarantee every Cyclone watching, in Hilton or otherwise, was much more than 6% worried. Given that same shot in the first half, I would have been 6% worried.

I was worried too - not because of the probability that he'd make it, but because the result of that one shot could directly determine the outcome of the game. Just because the shot is important in the context of the game doesn't make it more or less likely to happen.

In a close game, scores near the end are "worth" more because they individually have a larger impact on the outcome than shots taken in the first half. That's why we lived and died with every shot during the last minute of the game. But that doesn't mean anyone was more likely to make a shot.

FYI people have done studies on "clutch" performance as well and found no significant effect. That's not to say that some people don't sometimes perform well in end-game scenarios, but that on the whole they aren't usually significantly better or worse than their overall average. But I haven't played basketball in a while so what the hell do I know. Maybe I should go shoot hoops this afternoon?

[azepp]

Have you ever done math before? What most people call "stats" in sports is just counting how many times something happened. My three year old can count, that doesn't mean she understands statistics. Statistics and probability are generally non-intuitive. So the fact that you've played basketball before (as have I by the way) has no bearing on your ability to understand probability and randomness both of which are very real and have significant consequences in sports. People smarter than any of us figured this out a while ago, which is why pro sports franchises employ analysts to examine the data. That's why MIT started the Sloan Sports Conference, which is regularly attended by industry executives (like Mark Cuban), to discuss methods for evaluating their sports. I looked up the speakers for the 2013 conference and counted 23 people who work for directly professional leagues or franchises. From MLB, NBA, NFL and even MMA/UFC and auto racing. That's just the speakers - I'd guess that many more will be in attendence. Link: Speakers | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Just because you played basketball doesn't mean you really understand the game.

I don't think anyone is arguing that statistics aren't incredibly useful and predictive in sports over the long run. But again, it's all about the context. The chance of a player hitting a shot is higher when he's confident and focused than when he's not. The chance of rain is a lot higher when it's cloudy, right? Last night, the conditions were right for WVU to hit shots that they normally wouldn't hit.

[besserheimerphat]

I'm a CPA, so yes I know math. It really does not matter what statistics you throw at me, if you've never played before than you don't know.....which is probably the most surprising part of your post, that you say you played.

How much basketball do I have to play to know? Can I just shoot hoops at the Y? Do I need to have played in college? What if I spend the rest of the day throwing paper balls into my trashcan at work, is that good enough?

[nhclone]

What if I spend the rest of the day throwing paper balls into my trashcan at work, is that good enough?

For the record, I have not missed today. Considering I miseed 3-4 times yesterday, I'd say I have a hot hand right now.

[Ficklone02]

How much basketball do I have to play to know? Can I just shoot hoops at the Y? Do I need to have played in college? What if I spend the rest of the day throwing paper balls into my trashcan at work, is that good enough?

You better play some more if you really think that statistics is the only thing. There is more to it than just numbers.