***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

[bawbie]

It's not a bad loss in any context besides debating if they should be number one or not. Losing at home by double digits, is not a good thing.

And it wasn't so much that they lost, but how easily their d got carved up by Illinois. Pierre Jackson and Baylor did the same thing to them but Gonzaga was able to outscore them. So I guess it's a combination of I don't think they've enough to warrant being number one nor do I think they are one of the top teams in the country.

Who is in the conversation for #1 that doesn't have a "bad loss" by that definition?

There are no teams this year that don't have gaping holes in their resumes.

[CyJack13]

Who is in the conversation for #1 that doesn't have a "bad loss" by that definition?

There are no teams this year that don't have gaping holes in their resumes.

Indiana, Michigan, Florida - none of them have home losses, only Florida has a double digit loss at all out of those 3. Duke and Syracuse also have no home losses.

[CRcyclone6]

Who is in the conversation for #1 that doesn't have a "bad loss" by that definition?

There are no teams this year that don't have gaping holes in their resumes.

I agree with this. I haven't looked at the rankings, but how many different teams have been ranked in the top four? I know the rankings aren't a for sure indication on the top 4 seeds, but usually close. Going to be a seeding nightmare. Going to be some very tough 1 vs 8/9 games.

[CRcyclone6]

Indiana, Michigan, Florida - none of them have home losses, only Florida has a double digit loss at all out of those 3. Duke and Syracuse also have no home losses.

I think the first three listed are about as sure as anything right now. Duke might not have a home loss, but a 30 pt loss at Miami isn't good. What do you think of Miami? Prob a 2 seed right now, but could make a strong case for a 1 if they win at Duke and play well in ACC tourney.

[CyJack13]

Number of ranked teams Gonzaga played in the non-conference by year....

2011-2012 - None
2010-2011 - 4
2009-2010 - 2
2008-2009 - 4
2007-2008 - 3
2006-2007 - 6

Now how many of those games against ranked teams were in Tournaments (Maui, Pre-Season NIT, Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, etc....) where the game was not a "scheduled" game? How many were games courtesy of the bracket buster deal the mid-major conferences have going? Now after all of those are taken out of the equation how many ranked teams actually scheduled a head to head meeting with Gonzaga? Not many.

As for their NCAA Tournament results... Since the 2003 NCAA Tournament the Zags have been eliminated in their opening game 2 times. In 2008 they lost to #10 seed Davidson (Davidson advanced to the Elite Eight) and in 2007 they lost to #7 seed Indiana.
They have lost their 2nd round game 6 times. They lost in 2003 to #1 seed Arizona by 1 in OT, in 2004 they were upset by #10 seed Nevada, in 2005 they were upset by #6 seed Texas Tech by 2 points, in 2010 they lost #1 seed Syracuse, in 2011 they lost to #3 seed BYU, and in 2012 they lost to #2 seed Ohio State.
They have lost in the Sweet 16 twice. In 2006 they lost to #2 seed UCLA by 2 points, and in 2009 they lost to #1 seed North Carolina.

Since 2003 the Zags have been knocked out of the NCAA Tournament by three #1 seeds, two #2 seeds, a #3 seed, a #6 seed, a #7 seed, and two #10 seeds. In those 10 Tourney appearances the Zags were only beaten by a team with a worse seed 3 times.

So yes, thanks for proving my points. The number of ranked teams Gonzaga has played in the non-conference, while very impressive, doesn't even tell the whole story. Look at who've they played in games considered home or semi home (Seattle) in the last few years.

2013: West Virginia, K-State, Baylor
2012: Notre Dame, Michigan St, Arizona, Butler,
2011: San Diego St, Illinois, Xavier, Oklahoma St

They have no problem getting big name teams to come out to Washington. Also, getting scheduled into big time tournaments is not a random occurrence. Gonzaga's past success has put them on the same level as the nation's elite program when it comes to getting invited to big time pre-season tournaments, so they have absolutely no problem getting high quality non-conf games.

Also it's funny you mention BracketBusters too, since Gonzaga has not participated in that for many years. The reason, they don't need help getting quality match ups anymore.

As for the tournament, since 2002 they have only outperformed their seed twice in 10 years and have under-performed their seed four times. And you listed the teams Gonzaga has lost to in the tournament, how about who they have beat? Since 2002 they have not beat a single team seeded higher than 6th in the tournament, 0-6 against teams seeded 6th or higher. They are a great program, they've been able to sustain terrific mid-major success for over a decade but they have not produced like an elite program despite some very favorable seeds in the tournament.

[CyJack13]

I think the first three listed are about as sure as anything right now. Duke might not have a home loss, but a 30 pt loss at Miami isn't good. What do you think of Miami? Prob a 2 seed right now, but could make a strong case for a 1 if they win at Duke and play well in ACC tourney.

Agreed on Duke, that's why I didn't list them with the other 3, Syracuse also has some questionable losses, Temple on neutral court and Villanova.

I don't know how I feel about Miami yet this year, they had some early losses this year but they were while they were missing key players or in a second rate Christmas tournament in Hawaii. They've obviously gotten better as the year went out but the ACC also is really down, plus they got Duke right after they had lost Kelly. Their defensive efficiency numbers are terrific so that can save them even if they're having an off night offensively. I think they have a great shot at a number one seed even if they lose at Duke.

[Mumbai1986]

Does anyone know that severity of Nerlen Noel's injury? I heard he left the arena in a wheelchair after the Florida game.

[Cydkar]

Does anyone know that severity of Nerlen Noel's injury? I heard he left the arena in a wheelchair after the Florida game.

Nothing official but if it isn't season ending I'll be surprised. Pleasantly so.

[Mumbai1986]

Here is the injury and the screaming. Yeah, I don't think he comes back this year.

Nerlens Noel Injures His Knee; Carried Off Court By Teammates vs. Florida (HD) - YouTube

[cycloneworld]

Does anyone know that severity of Nerlen Noel's injury? I heard he left the arena in a wheelchair after the Florida game.

Sounds like a dislocated knee and he's done for the year.

[Wesley]

Nothing official but if it isn't season ending I'll be surprised. Pleasantly so.

He will probably be back next year at UK......too much hustle getting back on defense...

[erikbj]

If Noel is out the balance of the year, UK might be on the hot seat to make the tourney.

[Cyclonestate78]

So yes, thanks for proving my points. The number of ranked teams Gonzaga has played in the non-conference, while very impressive, doesn't even tell the whole story. Look at who've they played in games considered home or semi home (Seattle) in the last few years.

2013: West Virginia, K-State, Baylor
2012: Notre Dame, Michigan St, Arizona, Butler,
2011: San Diego St, Illinois, Xavier, Oklahoma St

They have no problem getting big name teams to come out to Washington. Also, getting scheduled into big time tournaments is not a random occurrence. Gonzaga's past success has put them on the same level as the nation's elite program when it comes to getting invited to big time pre-season tournaments, so they have absolutely no problem getting high quality non-conf games.

So previously you said Gonzaga beating these teams was no big deal as they are just mid-level Big XII teams but now when you need to make a point... all of the sudden they are impressive teams Gonzaga played? In fact... of the 11 teams you listed as "impressive" games Gonzaga had on their schedule 9 of them were not ranked when they played the Zags.

As for the tourney... years underperformed in red, years played to seed in black, years overperformed in blue

2012 #7 seed (beat #10 West Virginia, lost to #2 Ohio State... tie game with 3:39 to go)
2011 #11 seed (upset #6 St. Johns, lost to #3 BYU)
2010 #8 seed (beat #9 Florida State, lost to #1 Syracuse)
2009 #4 seed (beat #13 Akron, beat #12 Western Kentucky, lost to #1 North Carolina)
2008 #7 seed (lost to #10 Davidson... who went on to beat #2 G-Town, #3 Wisconsin, lost to #1 KU by 2)
2007 #10 seed (lost to #7 Indiana)
2006 #3 seed (beat #14 Xavier, beat #6 Indiana, lost to #2 UCLA... 1 point lead with 11 seconds to go)
2005 #3 seed (beat #14 Winthrop, lost to #6 Texas Tech... Zags missed 3 with 4 seconds to go, lost by 2)
2004 #2 seed (beat #15 VALPO, lost to #10 Nevada)
2003 #9 seed (beat #8 Cincinnati, lost to #1 Arizona by 1 in 2OT, Zags missed 2 shots in last 4 seconds)

From what I have seen the Zags have played to their seed or overperformed to their seed in 8 of the last 10 years.

[cyclonepower]

Here is Foxsports bracket, it would be ideal but if we are at an 11 seed we will be sweating Selection Sunday...NCAA tournament bracket projections

[gocubs2118]

Being an 11 seed is WAY too close to the bubble for my liking. You can say being an 11 seed is an easier road to the sweet 16 but you can also say it's a harder road just to make it to the second round.