Williams: Tech loss was bad but not a season ender

**brentblum** · 01-24-2013, 03:41 PM

In the history of the Big 12, only one team finished in the top 4 of the standings and did not make the NCAA tourney--K-State in 2007. And they were also the only team to win 10 or more games in the Big 12 and not dance as well. And that was back when the field had four less at-large teams.

My view may be a tad optimistic, but in my mind if the Cyclones get to 11 wins in the Big 12 they are in.

**swarthmoreCY** · 01-24-2013, 03:41 PM

Originally Posted by chamakhattack

I think you missed this part:

Bids have to come from somewhere. The B1G will get several teams and so will the Big East. But the Pac-12, SEC, ACC aren't overwhelmingly strong. Does the A-10 get five teams in? The Mountain West? Maybe, but it's tough to take the 5th place finisher in the A-10 over the 5th place team in the Big 12 in my mind.

Last I saw, the Big 12 was 6th in the conference RPI standings. At-large teams have to come from somewhere, but it is likely not to be coming from the Big 12. Yes, the Big 12 is ranked so low in large part because of TCU and TT. Think about that.

Originally Posted by gocubs2118

Perception doesn't really matter when it comes to seeding and selecting the field. If it did, teams like UNC and Kentucky would never miss the tournament.

Sure it does, and I said perception matters, not that it was the only thing. Yes, if UK or UNC finish with a bad record, they will not get in. The perception of your conference does matter, and UNC and UK can get by with a different resume than ISU. The same reason why those team with the same record as ISU will likely be ranked ahead of ISU and/or get a better seed.

**Gunnerclone** · 01-24-2013, 03:49 PM

So to sum it up, everyone was pretty much in agreement we were optimistically on the bubble at the beginning of the season. Then pretty much in agreement that we were on the bubble before conference play started, and currently we are on the bubble.

Please resume freakouts and self loathing.

**mattyice** · 01-24-2013, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by brentblum

In the history of the Big 12, only one team finished in the top 4 of the standings and did not make the NCAA tourney--K-State in 2007. And they were also the only team to win 10 or more games in the Big 12 and not dance as well. And that was back when the field had four less at-large teams.

My view may be a tad optimistic, but in my mind if the Cyclones get to 11 wins in the Big 12 they are in.

Brent...you may not on this bored use past performance as any possible indicator at all for future performance whatsoever. This has been determined today.

(eyeroll)

**CycloneErik** · 01-24-2013, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by chamakhattack

So to sum it up, everyone was pretty much in agreement we were optimistically on the bubble at the beginning of the season. Then pretty much in agreement that we were on the bubble before conference play started, and currently we are on the bubble.

Please resume freakouts and self loathing.

I'd say that we're looking at the bubble from the outside, but could win our way back to the bubble.
As it stands, the ISU discussion by the committee would take a minute or less. Our resume would be quickly rejected.

Get a bunch of good wins, win some in the conference tournament, and we're in the discussion again. Until that happens, we're really not on the bubble or in the discussion.

**swarthmoreCY** · 01-24-2013, 03:56 PM

Originally Posted by brentblum

In the history of the Big 12, only one team finished in the top 4 of the standings and did not make the NCAA tourney--K-State in 2007. And they were also the only team to win 10 or more games in the Big 12 and not dance as well. And that was back when the field had four less at-large teams.

My view may be a tad optimistic, but in my mind if the Cyclones get to 11 wins in the Big 12 they are in.

That is great, but how does it compare to the other power conferences? Yes, KSU went 10-6, finished top-4 in the conference with the 2nd best RPI, and get left out. Their RPI was around 60 IIRC. TT finished 9-7, lost to KSU in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, got an invite. Also note, 11-7 is not quite 10-6. Better finish 12-6 in a weak Big 12 to have a chance imo.

**brentblum** · 01-24-2013, 04:01 PM

Originally Posted by swarthmoreCY

That is great, but how does it compare to the other power conferences? Yes, KSU went 10-6, finished top-4 in the conference with the 2nd best RPI, and get left out. Their RPI was around 60 IIRC. TT finished 9-7, lost to KSU in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, got an invite. Also note, 11-7 is not quite 10-6. Better finish 12-6 in a weak Big 12 to have a chance imo.

You make some great points! It is a fun discussion to have and obviously based on hypothetical results. Here's hoping the good guys win 12-15 games in conference and we don't have to sweat come March 17th.

**Cydkar** · 01-24-2013, 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by chamakhattack

So to sum it up, everyone was pretty much in agreement we were optimistically on the bubble at the beginning of the season. Then pretty much in agreement that we were on the bubble before conference play started, and currently we are on the bubble.

Please resume freakouts and self loathing.

I don't agree that we are curently on the bubble at all.

**swarthmoreCY** · 01-24-2013, 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by chamakhattack

So to sum it up, everyone was pretty much in agreement we were optimistically on the bubble at the beginning of the season. Then pretty much in agreement that we were on the bubble before conference play started, and currently we are on the bubble.

Please resume freakouts and self loathing.

The bubble does not exist yet. The reaction is due to the fact we have deviated from the most likely scenario to getting on the eventual bubble. When you consider not only do we have to "make-up" that game, we need to do so against a team that we have much greater probability of losing to, you understand it is rational to be concerned. So far thus year we have zero wins in such situations, and have repeatedly shown the tendency to fold.

**isuchicago** · 01-24-2013, 04:08 PM

I've finally calmed down.. I was less upset by the loss than by some of the fan reaction though. Melting down to that extent always rubs me the wrong way, when its over a bunch of college kids playing a game. Its not the same as trashing someone like Lebron. For local college kids, I think its too much. Its gotta be much tougher being a college athlete with today's social media than it used to be.

**brentblum** · 01-24-2013, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by Cydkar

I don't agree that we are curently on the bubble at all.

Iowa State is currently 46th in RPI. Every team in the top 51 of the RPI made last year's NCAA tourney.

**mattyice** · 01-24-2013, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by Cydkar

I don't agree that we are curently on the bubble at all.

I agree. We are not even near the bubble.

Next 4 (3 of 4 at home) are almost must win before we close with 5 of 9 back on the road. Its still there for us....but RIGHT NOW...this is not a good ball club. NOt sure how anyone could see it otherwise.

**NATEizKING** · 01-24-2013, 04:10 PM

Originally Posted by mattyice

Brent...you may not on this bored use past performance as any possible indicator at all for future performance whatsoever. This has been determined today.

(eyeroll)

Apples to oranges, but I guess it's still right. We could only get three teams in this year, **** happens.

**swarthmoreCY** · 01-24-2013, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by brentblum

You make some great points! It is a fun discussion to have and obviously based on hypothetical results. Here's hoping the good guys win 12-15 games in conference and we don't have to sweat come March 17th.

I am probably still depressed about last night, so yeah, 12-6 may lean towards in.
This is mostly due to the fact a loss to TT really screws with not only the probability to get to 12-6, but the quality of such record.

**Cydkar** · 01-24-2013, 04:19 PM

Originally Posted by brentblum

Iowa State is currently 46th in RPI. Every team in the top 51 of the RPI made last year's NCAA tourney.

RPI at this point in the season, as has been discussed ad-nauseum, is not a good indicator of the strength of a team.

We've played the cupcake part of the schedule and pretty much failed. The Germans haven't bombed Pearl Harbor yet but they are on their way. We don't have a bubble resume' as of today regardless of RPI. RPI doesn't determine who gets in.