Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilites

**Hacksaw** · 03-01-2013, 09:52 AM

With 15 conference games remaining, there are 32,768 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These charts take into account the head-to-head tiebreaker (and mini round-robin for a 3+ way tie), and on down through the tiebreaking procedures.

Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilites-nc0jhau.png

The above charts take into account each possible scenario as a pure 50%/50% possibility.
For those of you who would like to see a more realistic likelihood of where teams may be seeded – this is for you. Below you will see the remaining 15 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from realtimerpi.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilites-f7njsyx.png

**VeloClone** · 03-01-2013, 09:57 AM

Hard to believe that ISU is given only a 35% chance of beating OU on the road but a 60% chance of beating OSU at home.

**CUIClone** · 03-01-2013, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by VeloClone

Hard to believe that ISU is given only a 35% chance of beating OU on the road but a 60% chance of beating OSU at home.

Makes sense though based on our home and road splits in the Big 12 I guess.

**cychosis** · 03-01-2013, 10:15 AM

So ISU and OU have about an 80-90% probability of meeting in the 1st round. Hope we stomp them again tomorrow and break their spirit.

**mtowncyclone13** · 03-01-2013, 10:16 AM

so 4th or 5th basically.

**CUIClone** · 03-01-2013, 10:18 AM

Looks like for the Clones to get the 3 seed, we would need K-State to lose at Baylor and at OK State. Not entirely out of the question. Then of course we would have to win out.

Edit: Check that - Winning out and having OK State also lose to K-State would be how we would get to 3rd.

**cyclonepower** · 03-01-2013, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by mtowncyclone13

so 4th or 5th basically.

barring some major upsets we are pretty much locked into the 4/5 against OU...and thanks Hacksaw for putting this together, I see you do it for the Mo Valley as well...

**alarson** · 03-01-2013, 10:25 AM

Boiling it down, its pretty damn hard for baylor to pass us.

If we win one more game, baylor has to win out, beating KSU, KU and UT. I doubt they'll beat either KU or KSU and UT will be tough for them.

If we win zero more games,baylor still has to win 2/3.

**cychosis** · 03-01-2013, 10:29 AM

Seems like an apporopriate place to relink mred's bracket generator thing.

mred's Big 12 Tournament Bracket Generator

**CUIClone** · 03-01-2013, 11:12 AM

Part of me wants KU to get the 1 seed so we have a better chance of getting another crack at them. The other part of me wants them to finally not finish 1st in the regular season...

**CysDoc** · 03-01-2013, 11:49 AM

Originally Posted by CUIClone

Part of me wants KU to get the 1 seed so we have a better chance of getting another crack at them. The other part of me wants them to finally not finish 1st in the regular season...

See that's where they're the 2 seed and we beat them in the championship game so they don't win the regular season or tourney, and we win the tourney. Wins all around.

**iacyguy** · 03-01-2013, 11:55 AM

Originally Posted by CysDoc

See that's where they're the 2 seed and we beat them in the championship game so they don't win the regular season or tourney, and we win the tourney. Wins all around.

Dang could you imagine the hype that game would get

**mj4cy** · 03-01-2013, 11:57 AM

Best first post ever, nice work Hacksaw!!!

**khaal53** · 03-01-2013, 11:59 AM

Whether we land at 3, 4, or 5 I think we're best off matching up with OU in the first round (instead of Baylor) and should we make the second round I'd prefer to see Kansas over Oklahoma State.