Another storm??

**4VR4CY** · 02-05-2008, 11:04 AM

I want to hear it thunder! Thunder snow kinda freaks me out, but it is pretty cool too.

**isucyfan** · 02-05-2008, 11:05 AM

Wow, you Central Iowans seem to get a storm every other week or so! You should move somewhere more temperate with less snow, like here in the Twin Cities!!

We got like 2 inches of snow in Jan. and so far in Feb. we've got 1 inch.

**ISUFan22** · 02-05-2008, 11:05 AM

In the spirit of the snow and the Super Bowl...

**wartknight** · 02-05-2008, 11:09 AM

pavement is officially covered in NE Ankeny.

**IOWASTATE** · 02-05-2008, 11:11 AM

I love how this is a play by play of snow!!!

**tejasclone** · 02-05-2008, 11:17 AM

Originally Posted by isucyfan

Wow, you Central Iowans seem to get a storm every other week or so! You should move somewhere more temperate with less snow, like here in the Twin Cities!!

We got like 2 inches of snow in Jan. and so far in Feb. we've got 1 inch.

Or Texas.

86 yesterday, 77 today.

**IOWASTATE** · 02-05-2008, 11:21 AM

As much as that sounds great right now, I was down at aTm over thanksgiving and their is just something about Iowa winters that i like, it dosnt seem like winter unless theres snow and although sometimes a hassle (ISU bball games) i still enjoy Iowa winters (crazy i know)

**wonkadog** · 02-05-2008, 11:24 AM

Year-round heat is overrated and I get sick of people rubbing it in your face when you're from a place like Iowa where we get cold weather in the winter (not singling you out cardinal&gold). You know what? If I wanted to have warm/hot weather all year round I would move to a place like that. It's not like we get this weather by "luck of the draw"! We choose to live here. I like having a change in seasons and yes, I do enjoy snow, even when we get as much as we've gotten this winter.

**IOWASTATE** · 02-05-2008, 11:31 AM

Btw, the pavements about covered in ames...

**scottie33** · 02-05-2008, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by MrsWx4Cy

Here's the latest from the guys at work looking at the new models:
LATEST FOR DES MOINES:
NAM WRF: 14.9"
NGM: 12.9"
GFS: 10"
ME: 5-9"(A FOOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST)
Additional concerns are thunder snow and blowing snow. We like to say hear thunder, expect a foot! I love big snows! It just started in WDM about an hour ago.

What does all that NAM WRF, NGM, and GFS stand for? Any specific totals for the Ames area?

**tejasclone** · 02-05-2008, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by wonkadog

Year-round heat is overrated and I get sick of people rubbing it in your face when you're from a place like Iowa where we get cold weather in the winter (not singling you out cardinal&gold). You know what? If I wanted to have warm/hot weather all year round I would move to a place like that. It's not like we get this weather by "luck of the draw"! We choose to live here. I like having a change in seasons and yes, I do enjoy snow, even when we get as much as we've gotten this winter.

Believe me, I know. I've only been living here since last May, and prior to that have lived in Iowa all my life. I too miss Iowa winters at times and it gets damn hot here in the summer. The season I miss the most though is fall. Very few leaves even change colors/fall down here. It's a bummer.

That being said, I DO NOT miss digging my car out of 3 inches of ice and 10 inches of snow every week.

**mg4cy** · 02-05-2008, 12:03 PM

We are going to the game, storm or not...

**cstrunk** · 02-05-2008, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by scottie33

What does all that NAM WRF, NGM, and GFS stand for? Any specific totals for the Ames area?

They are different computer weather models used to help forecasters figure things out.

NAM = North American Meso model
WRF = Weather Research and Forecasting model
NGM = Nested Grid Model
GFS = Global Forecast System model

I'm pretty sure I got those right.

**scottie33** · 02-05-2008, 12:14 PM

Originally Posted by cstrunk

They are different computer weather models used to help forecasters figure things out.

NAM = North American Meso model
WRF = Weather Research and Forecasting model
NGM = Nested Grid Model
GFS = Global Forecast System model

I'm pretty sure I got those right.

Which one is generally the most accurate??? Is that why they usually put 6-10 because those models predict different amounts or how does that work

**cstrunk** · 02-05-2008, 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by scottie33

Which one is generally the most accurate??? Is that why they usually put 6-10 because those models predict different amounts or how does that work

You can't say that one is necessarily more accurate than the other, nor can you trust any single model for every storm. They all get them wrong at times. HOWEVER, it seems that the GFS and NAM generally have been doing decent lately. What forecasters will do is look at all of the models and take their output into consideration. They will usually throw out models that have solutions out in left field. More often than not, they will blend two or more models. It is up to forecasters to figure out which models are being reliable, they look at trends and historical data to help them out.

As far as forecasting snow amounts like "6-10 inches" instead of saying 6.5" is forecast.... A model may give an exact output for what it is forecasting, but you can't rely on that. It is simply too difficult to pin down what areas are going to get certain amounts of snow. It varies quite a bit within short distances. This is the reason it is usually like 1-3 or 3-6 or 4-8 or 6-10, etc. There are numerous variables that could swing the total amount one way or the other.... or put it smack dab on target.

Forecasting is not an exact science. It has come a long way in the past 20 years mostly due to technology, but there is much more that needs to be improved.