How well will ISU do in the Big 12 in 09-10?

[swarthmoreCY]

I am as optimistic about MBB as I have been since the preseason of Blalock and Stinson's Jr year. That said, I am concerned that the strength of the Big 12 and non-conference will negate the improvement in talent. To boost my morale, I look at MU's incredible run last year. Going into 08-09, they looked to have a similar roster composition to the current ISU roster. They did have the benefit of the Big 12 being weaker than what it will be in 09-10, and their non-conference was not as hard.

In 2008-09 MU returned these player with the following stats, from a team that went 6-10 in Big 12 play in 07-08:

Carroll, Sr Forward, 13 pts/gm, 6.7 reb/gm, .53 FG%, Starter, 25 min/gm
Lyons, Sr Forward, 13 pts/gm, 5.7 reb/gm, .58 FG% Starter, 22 min/gm
Lawrence, Sr G-F, 8.8 pts/gm, 2.9 reb/gm, ,09 A/gm, .36 3-P% Starter, 26 min/gm
Tiller, Jr G, 6.8 pts/gm, 2.3 reb/gm, 1.8 A/gm, 1.2 TO/gm, .267 3-P%, Bench, 19min/gm
Stafford, So F, 2.3 pts/gm, 2.2 reb/gm, .36 3-P%, Bench, 9 min/gm

Newcomers:
Zaire Taylor, Jr G, Transfer, At Delaware he averaged 10 pts/gm, 5 reb/gm, 1.6 A/gm, 1.9 TO/gm, .38 3-P% , 2-star by Scout
Kim English, Fr G, Scout 4 star from prep school
Marcus Dennon, Fr G, Scout 3-star
Keith Ramsey, Jr F, JUCO transfer, averaged 14.5 pts/gm, 8.5 reb/gm at JUCO, Scout 3-star, unranked
Laurence Bowers, Fr F, Scout 2-star.

Compared with...
ISU's returning talent for 09-10, from a team that went 4-12:

Brackins, JR F, 20 pts/gm, 9.5 reb/gm, .475 FG%, Starter, 32.5 min/gm
DG, Jr G, 9.8 pts/gm, 3.3 reb/gm, 5 A/gm, 3 TO/gm, .22 3-P%, Starter, 32 min/gm
Lucca, Jr G, 8.2 pts/gm, 2.2 reb/gm, 1.5 A/gm, 1.7 TO/gm, .385 3-P%, Starter, 24 min/gm
JVB, Sr F/C, 5.5 pts/gm, 3 reb/gm, .473 FG%, .40 3-P%, Bench, 15.1 min/gm
Hamilton, So C/F, 4.2 pts/gm, 2.9 reb/gm, .57 FG%, Starter, 13.7 min/gm
Buckley, So G, 1.3 pts/gm, 1 A/gm, 1 TO/gm, .23 3-P%, Bench, 6.6 min/gm
Boozer, Jr G-F, 2.5 pts/gm, 1.6 reb/gm, .3 A/gm, .2 TO/gm, .295 3-P%, Bench, 8.2 min/gm

Newcomers:
MG, Sr G-F, JuCo transfer, 22 ps/gm, 10 reb/gm at JuCo, Scout/Rivals 3-Star, Top 25 ESPN Newcomer
Dendy, Jr F, JuCo transfer, 8 pts/gm, Scout/Rivals not yet evaluated, HS Top-75 player, Scout/Rivals 4-star
Colvin, Fr G, Scout/Rivals 4-star, Top-100
Oliver, Fr G, Not yet evaluated by Scout/Rivals,
Scotty, So G, Transfer from Marquette, Scout/Rivals 3-Star
LA, Fr F, Redshirt, Scout 3-Star.

Given how little Buckley played, he coud have been considered a newcomer (hopefully).
If McD can get his guys to play as good as defense as MU and with an equivalent toughness (queue Tuff as Rain and Roger), they can make a good run.

[rebecacy]

If we go 15-4 in conference play like MU did last year, I will eat my hat.

[mizouse87]

If we go 15-4 in conference play like MU did last year, I will eat my hat.

Do you have one of those strawberry banana flavored hats? If so, can you share?

[Tornado man]

I am as optimistic about MBB as I have been since the preseason of Blalock and Stinson's Jr year.

If McD can get his guys to play as good as defense as MU and with an equivalent toughness (queue Tuff as Rain and Roger), they can make a good run.

You do realize Mizzou attempted almost 400 more free throws (871 to 491) than Iowa State did last year. They had an obsession for drawing fouls. They also set hard screens on offense, and trapped on defense to cause turnovers. We did neither of those. Will we change our entire style this year with new players? I think not.
Outside of Brackins and Petey, our entire squad seemed dedicated to avoiding physical contact. Missouri basketball plays on an entirely different level of intensity.

[cyclonez7]

anything better than 6-10 is a success

[swarthmoreCY]

You do realize Mizzou attempted almost 400 more free throws (871 to 491) than Iowa State did last year. They had an obsession for drawing fouls. They also set hard screens on offense, and trapped on defense to cause turnovers. We did neither of those. Will we change our entire style this year with new players? I think not.
Outside of Brackins and Petey, our entire squad seemed dedicated to avoiding physical contact. Missouri basketball plays on an entirely different level of intensity.

I do. It would be interesting to normalize that, considering the increase in possessions for MU. In 2007-08 ISU attempted 578 to MU's 620. In 2006-2007, ISU attempted 540 to MU's 580. Given that MU averaged far more possessions (15 in pace compared to ISU's 208); ISU may have been more aggressive if you prefer to exclusively use FTs attempted.

Trapping on defense is not the sole barometric of a successful defense or defensive intensity. Defensively, ISU was 7th, 6th, and 9th in the Big 12 for scoring defense, FG% defense, and 3P% defense in 07-08, while MU was 11th, 10th, and 1st. In 06-07 ISU was 6th, 6th, and 8th in the Big 12 for scoring defense, FG% defense, and 3P% defense, while MU was 9th, 9th, and 11th.

Given there were no coaching changes for either program, what caused the fluctuations in stats, and for MU a jump in quality of play in 08-09? Maturation, experience, and new players can be effective in achieving different play. Often times with this improvement in personnel comes an alteration in a coaches game plan. Good coaches adapt their methods for the effective use of the ability of the players at hand.
The setting of screens part is subjective interpretation.

[ISUonthemove]

I would take 10-6, in conference.

[runningcy]

im guessing things will go very well 12-4

[tejasclone]

im guessing things will go very well 12-4

Even our best years in the Big 12 we were 14-2 (1999-2000) and 13-3 (2000-2001). 12-4 is knocking on that door and I don't think we're at that point.

I'd say 10-6 is a good expectation. 9-7 is acceptable and probably good enough for the dance, depending on the non con, as it should put us in the top half of the standings. 8-8 would only be a moderate improvement from the last 3 years and would likely not be good enough for the success we want this year. I think 11-5 is our cap... that would be like going 8-0 at home and winning three on the road, which is an enormous task given where this team is coming from the last few years.

[trajanJ]

I think you will split with MU and KSU. Beat NU and CU both times and lose to KU both. That's 6-4 in the North. If you win your home games against the South, maybe lose to Texas at home but beat Baylor or OU at their place you go 9-7. That can be done, but as I type this I realize how tough this conference is going to be. This could be one of those years that the Big 12 has a bunch of teams in the Sweet 16 and a couple in the Final Four.

[isuno1fan]

Would be happy with 8-8

[jdoggivjc]

You think the conference is going to get that powerful overnight?

[acody]

You do realize Mizzou attempted almost 400 more free throws (871 to 491) than Iowa State did last year. They had an obsession for drawing fouls. They also set hard screens on offense, and trapped on defense to cause turnovers. We did neither of those. Will we change our entire style this year with new players? I think not.
Outside of Brackins and Petey, our entire squad seemed dedicated to avoiding physical contact. Missouri basketball plays on an entirely different level of intensity.

Agree, after three years of McDermott basketball, I've seen nothing to indicate we can go .500 or better in the Big 12. Something needs to change. Hopefully the new players are an influx of real Big 12 talent which may get us going.

[CycloneYoda]

14-2

[trajanJ]

I don't think the conference is getting better overnight. It's been pretty good for a while and it was very young last year. The conference is returning most starters and had maybe the best recruiting year they have had in years. That combination should make the conference very good.