What year is/was worse for your crops, 1988 or 2012?
I was only 4 in 1988 so I don't really remember it so well.
Farm program 1988 --Under the 0-92 program, a corn farmer still has to deduct 20 percent of his base, for which he will be paid for half. After that, he doesn`t have to plant any corn on the remaining 80 percent of the base to be eligible for 92 percent of the full cash income supplement to which he would otherwise be eligible.
You were guaranteed a supplement, not full cash price, or potential income from planting a whole crop..
That year I insured my crop for 90 bushels/acre, I harvested 92 bu./acre. In Shelby County.
Corn depth of kernal can benefit from rain (filling the kernal) until it dents. Late April and May planted corn would be in that category. Soybeans have been in a holding pattern or dormant defensive mode and will respond 100%, although not able to reach the potential it had at one time. Generally speaking, Corn East of I-35 to the Eastern edge of the corn belt (border of Ohio/PA.) is done. That area was planted earlier this year.
Speaking of flooding, the Mississippi at a crucial point, is 10' deep in the channel. Larger barges have been parked and even smaller barges have to wait for periodic dredging to allow for traffic flow. Of course not as much grain will be traveling to NO via the Mississippi this year but still, its not often this situation rears its ugly head.
IMO, the 3 dry years we experienced in the mid to early 80's were far worse for grain production. At that time we did not have RUP hence no-till was unavailable and bio-tech seed was not on the market. We dryed the top foot of soil out with tillage, had weed pressure and corn was not bred to withstand stress. And MPCI crop insurance sucked. On top of that the financial "farm crisis" was at full roar which impacted land values which destroyed equity. This drouth is not good but if we were using the practises and seed from the 80's, it would have been all over a month ago.
As far as marketing, we are cleaning out bins as I speak. Give or take $8 is good enough for me. The end user can not sustain profitable margins much beyond that figure. Ethanol plants are reducing output now and only operating because they have some bushels being delivered on old contracts. When those run out, I suspect that they will not operate at a negative margin and just produce enough to keep the plant and employees operational.
It will be a long interesting survival mode for the livestock and ethanol producer until the 2013 crop becomes available.
We were as dry as you guys through June and half of July, but we've been getting heavy rains about every other day, to at least once a day for the past week now. IT didn't take that long to recharge our atmosphere and I'm about 300 miles east of you.
I hate to think what this is going to do with the ethanol production. There is no profit to be made when corn gets this high in price.
Here's a picture of some ears I pulled yesterday. The good, the bad, and the ugly.
The good and the ugly ears are from the end rows. Was basically trying to get the best and worst. The middle ear is from out in the middle of the field and represents what I was seeing all throughout. I'm guessing 100 bu/acre on this piece, the rain will help a little. Unfortunately, 3 weeks ago, 180 bu/acre was a very real possibility. This was planted 4/26 in Madison County on 88 CSR. Took a look at some ears from a field that was planted 4/6, I'm guessing 170 bu/acre.
If any one has some questions about their MPCI coverage, feel free to PM me. Not trying to sell anything, but I was a company rep for 10 years. My biggest advice would be if you think your loss will be over 200k per crop/county, start getting your past 3 years production records in order.
Not accurate at all. The atmosphere could recharge itself in a couple of days (or less) if the pattern change was dramatic enough. As far as Iowa goes the pattern doesn't look to make a significant pattern change though, so while you may see some rain it still doesn't look to be drought busting through the Fall.
Soil moisture could be the bigger concern that takes much longer to recharge, I'm not an expert here though so I'll let someone else answer. But, when you are down 10" of rain over the course of 3 months it is going to take more than just 10" to recharge the soil moisture, etc...
.4" last night. First rain in 6 weeks. That will last anothwer 24 hours, than I will need more? 1983 and 1988 were hot and dry. 1991 and 1993?? were real wet. 4 bad years out of 10, not a good thing.
We got 1.9 in the Cedar Valley last night. Went out this morning and it was still muddy.
Got .75 in Eldridge during the night.