Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

[MissouriCyclone]

I saw one of the Earl models with 12" still for us... Until this storm hits I'm trusting in the highest amounts....

[FDWxMan]

You ******* weather people...now I have to cancel my morning neighborhood snowball fight. Ill have your job for this!

I'm sorry. The last forecast I put together was late and past the bedtime of all the 8-year olds I usually survey.

Left to my own devices, well, we're screwed.

[NorthCyd]

That is most likely because she has a honey-do list a mile long that she wants done before Saturday night and she knows the best way to get a man to get stuff done is tell him something like that. It'll work every time.

Been married for 17 yrs and my wife uses that speak all the time and no matter how many times the story turns out as you typed, the next time she pulls that line I'm in "Let's get that **** done NOW!!!" mode. Wives know EXACTLY what they are doing......Just like Mother Nature.

At least your wife talks dirty to you.

[wartknight]

Wow... I knew exactly what was coming. It pays to watch the most accurate forecast 5 years in a row on ABC 5. They were never this wrong. They make channel 13 look like amateur hour.

Just kidding.... I think??

I forgot there was still a picture when I turned to channel 5

[wartknight]

Still done by early Friday?

[cyinne]

I guess I figured that people that look at this thread would have figured out that the maps I posted were 5-7 days ahead of the storm-- I guess I should have put a disclaimer on all of the maps saying that this is in no way the final total snowfall totals that will fall, wait get final totals the day before the storm.

[Wesley]

So I notice last Thursday that the Metogram Generator is calling for 20" storm, I start thread. Then, a bunch of people who have no idea how to be a meteorologist, myself included, try and act like we really know what we are talking about, and post some cool graphs and colorful maps. Then, the 2 or 3 real meteorologist who post on here (who are pretty easy to pick out) tell us to pump the breaks and give forecast that actually matches what we have right now.

Yet, you pay attention to the people who have no idea what they are talking about?

Is this the restart of the posterology thread?

[aeroclone]

Wow... I knew exactly what was coming. It pays to watch the most accurate forecast 5 years in a row on ABC 5. They were never this wrong. They make channel 13 look like amateur hour.

Just kidding.... I think??

Those dirtbags have been in third place for years!

[alarson]

[Wesley]

24 inches for Manhattan? Golly, is that enough for Bruce to recruit snowmen to his team?

16 inches for Nebby?

8 inches for Ames?

Will Brent Mush make it to Big Monday next week in Lawrence?

[Isuska]

in seriousness, what is the difference that these two are graphing? i see a 50.7 and a 40.4.

[cyclonedave25]

in seriousness, what is the difference that these two are graphing? i see a 50.7 and a 40.4.

One is the NAM and the other is the GFS, different forecast models.

[carvers4math]

Trying to get to Ames Friday. Hope it isn't all blowing like crazy over I-35.

[FDWxMan]

NAM only runs out 84 hours into the future. Also has a finer grid resolution.

GFS runs out 384 hours. Runs a coarse resolution for the first 168 (7days) and then even coarser, through the end.

Other "under the hood" differences in model physics.

[Isuska]

One is the NAM and the other is the GFS, different forecast models.

so since both have Des Moines in the 8-9 range, is that a fair estimate for snowfall for us?

i assume the snow compacting isn't taken into account?