Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

[chuckd4735]

Earl is starting to warm up... Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page

[FDWxMan]

Earl is starting to warm up... Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page

If that site provided the maps out to the end of the storm (144hours vs. 120) the grand total from the GFS is 12.4" (for Des Moines).

The GFS total, is banking on 10" in a period of 10 hours, including one window of 4-5" in a 3" period.

So right now, the GFS model is indicating snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour over a 7 or 8 hour window, which, well, doesn't happen often, here, for that long.

For entertainment purposes only, the under still looks like the smart play...for now.

[cyinne]

Earl is starting to warm up... Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page

Yes, and this is just the beginning of HOPEFULLY a week to remember in local weather.

Here is a 2 storm total- the graph is from the 12z GFS 204 hr snowfall totals

[AirWalke]

Yes, and this is just the beginning of HOPEFULLY a week to remember in local weather.

Here is a 2 storm total- the graph is from the 12z GFS 204 hr snowfall totals

[CycloneErik]

So, they're basically saying no less than a foot of snow?
That would be impressive. I miss getting buried by a blizzard.

[alarson]

18z update

[FDWxMan]

So, they're basically saying no less than a foot of snow?

No. "They" aren't.

Unless your "they" is raw model output. Then yes.

If "they" are the forecasters, then no. We are not saying that. Not right now.

For entertainment purposes only, the under still looks like the smart play...for now.

[FDWxMan]

18z update

18Z GFS output puts Des Moines at 9.3" after accounting for compaction.

[AirWalke]

I'm confused by the two images... is there a 2nd storm coming in behind Thursday's storm?

[FDWxMan]

I'm confused by the two images... is there a 2nd storm coming in behind Thursday's storm?

I wouldn't bet on it yet. The first image goes well into "model fantasy land." But yes, the 204 hour image is depicting 2 systems.

alarson's image is showing only the snow from the Thursday/Friday system, at least according to that model.

[AirWalke]

I wouldn't bet on it yet. The first image goes well into "model fantasy land." But yes, the 204 hour image is depicting 2 systems.

alarson's image is showing only the snow from the Thursday/Friday system, at least according to that model.

Thanks for the clarification; I think I much prefer model fantasy land.

[hurdleisu24]

when is that 2nd system supposely coming around if it happens

[cyinne]

when is that 2nd system supposely coming around if it happens

Late Sunday/Monday/early Tuesday timeframe.

[ISUcy08]

18Z GFS output puts Des Moines at 9.3" after accounting for compaction.

So, how much do you think we are getting? I know it will change, but if you had to guess.

[FDWxMan]

So, how much do you think we are getting? I know it will change, but if you had to guess.

I think a good place to start the bidding is 5-8". Place over/unders on that.

I'm a bit worried since this could sort of be a "dying" system, that dry air could get wrapped in on Thursday and cut stuff down.

Eastern Nebraska would get hammered. I'd probably be more comfortable getting to double digits for amounts around Omaha....maybe Atlantic/Denison/Carroll.

But this thing doesn't move onshore until Tuesday, so those numbers really don't have a lot of significance or meaning at this point.

There is still potential there for totals to go over that in Des Moines, but that's where my gut is going right now.