Ah yes the media. Work on a story for a couple hours, put it on the wire, and suddenly you are an expert.
I tend to believe the same thing with economists. My economics professor basically says that outside of analyzing history that economists (including him) are basically guessing and really have no idea what is really going to happen. I have respect for guys like that. I have little respect for the economist that says, without solid proof, "we're going into a recession," and after he's done scaring everyone and it never happened, basically says, "sorry, I ****** up..."
Originally Posted by twojman
My recession guess:
This one will be worse then 2001, 2001 by historical standards was not that bad. I do not think it will be as bad as the recession in 1990 & 1991. I believe the economy took almost 4 years to recover from that recession and led to the great bull market and .com boom of the late 1990's.
Assuming we even have a recession. My economics professor isn't convinced that one is even going to happen. Economic slowdown does not equal recession - negative growth does.
Interesting to note is that it still baffles economists as to why there even was a recession in 2001, as the indicators didn't point towards a recession occurring. The popular theories as to why it happed would be the end of the internet boom (somehow Clinton only experienced the upside of it and was out of office before it came crashing down), and 9/11.
Originally Posted by cyeah
Yeah, I love how now a slowing growth is a recession. The socialist indoctrination of public school children is almost complete. It is similar to when a gov't program rates of funding increases is lowered - the Dems call it a cut.
The market goes up, the market goes down, but in the end it will head up over time. If you are less than 55 or so I would sock all you can into some large cap stocks. I also am thinking hard about Google right now, trading at 440 a share when they were just at 700 not that long ago - can you say half off?
More often than not, if there is a recession, the media has scared the public/economy into one. Who do you hear about an impending recession from first? The media. And since the general public believes just about anything the media says (and if you think this is a modern phenomena think about the "War of the Worlds" radio broadcast), they automatically assume that the economy is going into a recession. They stop spending money, which means business stops selling, which means they stop producing. Bang. Economic slowdown, possibly to the point of a recession. I personally think the media would love nothing more than for us to be in a recession right now as a final nail in the coffin for the Bush Administration (another reason for the history books to proclaim what a horrible President he was - he left office with the economy in a recession)...
Chuck Lidell: I paint my toenails with pink and black polish. Problem is, I get more paint on my toes and on the carpet than on my nails. Any advice? Maria Sharapova: Don't you beat up other guys for a living? I don't know how to answer this.
On CNBC Monday, Buffett said that "by any common-sense definition, we are in a recession." The Berkshire Hathaway chairman pointed to declining home values and the fact that sales at his company's candy, home furnishings and jewelry stores are down "across the board."
Harry Truman quote: It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.
Boo hoo. Also feel bad for Warren and his $62B. He owns insurance galore, power companies, carpet makers, real estate companies , NFM. Mr Smartpants owns stuff that will not do as well in a recession. He may not be the richest come next year's Forbes report. Yet he will do okay.
Looking forward to CFH magic for the next bball season, Georges style.
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